Recursive Moments of Compound Renewal Sums with Discounted Claims

Under regularity conditions, Le´veille´& Garrido [6] gives a derivation of the first two moments (resp. asymptotic) of a Compound Renewal Present Value Risk (CRPVR) process using renewal theory arguments. In this paper, with the same procedure and assuming that all the moments of the claim severity and the claims number process exist, we get recursive formulas for all the moments (resp. asymptotic) of the CRPVR process.     

Government Time Discounting and Required Rates of Return: UK History and Current Issues

The UK government first set financial objectives for the nationalised industries in 1961 and subsequently promoted the use of ‘discounted cash flow’ for investment appraisal. The nationalised industry regime evolved until, in the 1990s, it was succeeded by economic regulation regimes for the privatised utilities. Meanwhile discounting conventions emerged and have continued to evolve for wider government policy analysis, including aspects of climate change. Issues about the size and functions of public expenditure notwithstanding, UK government conventions are currently fairly uncontroversial: however, in the world at large, government discounting remains subject to many academic and international controversies and misunderstandings.     

The real dollar-yen exchange rate,asymmetries in trade flows and the current account in a perfect-foresight model for developing East Asia

This paper explores permanent, unanticipated shocks in the yen-dollar exchange rate in a perfect-foresight, infinite-horizon, representative-agent model for an open, semismall economy that produces a single good, imports intermediate inputs and investment goods from Japan and competes with Japan in external markets. Therefore, the model captures some of the features of the developing countries of East Asia. External debt is constrained by a country-risk premium that depends on the level of external debt. The capital stock is maintained and incremented by an endogenous mixture of Japanese and home goods. An appreciation of the dollar against the yen is neutral for external indebtedness and the trade account in the long run, but raises the capital stock, consumption and hence welfare in the long run; the home currency depreciates against the dollar but appreciates against the yen. Whether a cycle of current account surpluses followed by current account deficits or vice versa is generated depends on the initial response of the shadow value of external debt.     

Retaining customers in traditional retail financial services: interviewing 'les responsables'

This paper explores organizational concerns with retaining customers in traditional retailing of financial services. Managers, charged with retaining customers ('les responsables') in banks and building societies, are interviewed seeking their views on how their organizations retain customers. The study finds that there are a number of shared themes in the sample of informants, which are evolution/flux, customer information systems, a product/sales orientation, delivering financial services, staff and relationships with customers. Underlying these themes, however, appears some equivocation as these organizations try to retain customers when customer acquisition seems to be the thrust of their marketing.     

Exchange and optimality

Summary. A feasible social state is irreducible if and only if, for any non-trivial partition of individuals into two groups, there exists another feasible social state at which every individual in the first group is equally well-off and someone strictly better-off. Competitive equilibria decentralize irreducible Pareto optimal social states. Received: September 9, 1996; revised version: February 11, 1998     

Presentation and Derivation of a Five-Parameter Survival Function Intended to Model Mortality in Modern Female Populations

A single analytical expression for the probability of survival from birth to age x that would hold good for all ages in the entire human life span has been sought for centuries. With an eight-parameter function, Heligman and Pollard achieved this goal, for integer values of x , in 1980. The present paper introduces a five-parameter survival function intended to model human mortality in modern female populations. The introduced function is not only defined for integers. It is defined for all ages.     

Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI in transition economies. We make an attempt to overcome some problems associated with previous studies; the aggregation problem, inadequate measures of volatility, short-run focus and the endogeneity problem. Using a GARCH specification, we focus on long-run volatility, while we control for the endogeneity problem by applying SYS-GMM estimation. The obtained results show that the impact of the unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI differs among economic activities since 2000. As part of the re-estimation exercise, we use two alternative measures of volatility to avoid arbitrariness. The obtained results are to a large extent in accordance with the first one.     

Testing moving average trading strategies on ETFs

The evidence for the profitability of MA strategies documented in the literature is usually based on non-tradable indices or portfolios/factors and the use of the zero return or risk-free rate as the benchmark. In this paper we implement MA strategies using ETFs and examine the performance of such strategies using a variety of risk-adjusted performance measures. We find that relative to the buy-and-hold strategy, MA strategies have lower average returns and Sharpe ratios, but fare better under factor-adjusted performance measures such as the CAPM alpha. We also find that MA strategies become less profitable when they are implemented using ETFs than using their underlying indices. In addition, we propose a quasi-intraday version of the standard MA strategy (QUIMA) that allows investors to trade immediately upon observing MA crossover signals. The QUIMA strategy outperforms the standard one that only trades at the close of a trading day, when the long-term MA lag length is no more than 50 days.     

汇率与股价：基于世界模型的分析框架

本文从世界模型的角度,阐述世界均衡的特点,初步建立有关汇率和本国股票市场、外国股票市场的函数形式,从而为研究汇率与股价之间的价格互动机制的奠定理论基石。     

人民币汇率改革与外商直接投资的相关性分析

目前国内针对人民币汇率的研究很少涉及汇率与资本流动项目关系的研究,所得的结论大多都认为人民币汇率的贬值有利于我国的外商直接投资.本文探讨了汇率改革及相应的汇率变动在微观层面的影响,并对汇率改革前后外商直接投资变化的原因进行了分析.提出了发挥汇率改革的积极作用,促进外商直接投资健康有序地增长的建议.