Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence

Relatively little empirical evidence exists about countries' external adjustment to changes in fiscal policy and, in particular, to changes in taxes. This paper addresses this question by measuring the effects of tax and government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate in a sample of four industrialized countries. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregression in which the interaction of fiscal variables and macroeconomic aggregates is left unrestricted. Identification is instead achieved by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. Three main findings emerge: (i) the data provide little support for the twin-deficit hypothesis, (ii) the estimated effects of unexpected tax cuts are generally inconsistent with the predictions of standard economic models, except for the US, and (iii) the puzzling real depreciation triggered by an expansionary public spending shock is substantially larger in magnitude than predicted by traditional identification approaches.     

Market Reactions to the Hong Kong Trading Suspensions: Mandatory versus Voluntary

This paper investigates the market reactions to regulator-initiated (mandatory) suspension and issuer-initiated (voluntary) suspension on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. It is found that there is substantial devaluation of the stocks during either suspension, and both the variance and trading volume are higher in the post-suspension period than in the pre-suspension period. However, the changes in value and variance are sensitive to the reason for the suspension. The evidence shows that mandatory suspensions are more effective than voluntary suspensions in disseminating information, although both suspensions may not effectively ease unusual volatility immediately.     

Outlook无法访问Exchange邮箱问题的解决对策

随着计算机网络的飞速发展，Exchange邮件服务器的应用也日渐广泛。而在众多的客户端软件中基于Exchange2007邮件系统首先客户端应是Microsoft Outlook。文章介绍了如何解决Microsoft Outlook无法访问Exchange邮箱的问题。     

论欧元汇率波动：一个欧美博弈视角

欧元自1999年面世以来,其走势和前景引起众人关注,许多人纷纷利用购买力平价等各种汇率决定理论对其汇率走势进行预测,然而其汇率变化仍然出乎意料,欧元从最初的一路狂跌,到2002年以来强劲上扬。传统经济学理论无法预测和解释欧元的波动,而欧美博弈,尤其是美国政府的态度,对于欧元的波动影响颇大。欧元虽然潜力巨大,但是冲击美元的霸主地位尚需时日。     

Recursive Moments of Compound Renewal Sums with Discounted Claims

Under regularity conditions, Le´veille´& Garrido [6] gives a derivation of the first two moments (resp. asymptotic) of a Compound Renewal Present Value Risk (CRPVR) process using renewal theory arguments. In this paper, with the same procedure and assuming that all the moments of the claim severity and the claims number process exist, we get recursive formulas for all the moments (resp. asymptotic) of the CRPVR process.     

经济体制转轨时期的投资波动及其启示

本文采用实证方法， 将我国改革开放前后不同历史时期投资波动状态加以比较， 以充分、可靠、翔实的数据资料证明， 进入经济体制转轨时期， 我国的投资运行已呈现较为适度、平稳状态。并侧重从理论上分析了经济体制转轨时期投资波动新变化的原因和从中得到的启示。     

Government Time Discounting and Required Rates of Return: UK History and Current Issues

The UK government first set financial objectives for the nationalised industries in 1961 and subsequently promoted the use of ‘discounted cash flow’ for investment appraisal. The nationalised industry regime evolved until, in the 1990s, it was succeeded by economic regulation regimes for the privatised utilities. Meanwhile discounting conventions emerged and have continued to evolve for wider government policy analysis, including aspects of climate change. Issues about the size and functions of public expenditure notwithstanding, UK government conventions are currently fairly uncontroversial: however, in the world at large, government discounting remains subject to many academic and international controversies and misunderstandings.     

The real dollar-yen exchange rate,asymmetries in trade flows and the current account in a perfect-foresight model for developing East Asia

This paper explores permanent, unanticipated shocks in the yen-dollar exchange rate in a perfect-foresight, infinite-horizon, representative-agent model for an open, semismall economy that produces a single good, imports intermediate inputs and investment goods from Japan and competes with Japan in external markets. Therefore, the model captures some of the features of the developing countries of East Asia. External debt is constrained by a country-risk premium that depends on the level of external debt. The capital stock is maintained and incremented by an endogenous mixture of Japanese and home goods. An appreciation of the dollar against the yen is neutral for external indebtedness and the trade account in the long run, but raises the capital stock, consumption and hence welfare in the long run; the home currency depreciates against the dollar but appreciates against the yen. Whether a cycle of current account surpluses followed by current account deficits or vice versa is generated depends on the initial response of the shadow value of external debt.     

Retaining customers in traditional retail financial services: interviewing 'les responsables'

This paper explores organizational concerns with retaining customers in traditional retailing of financial services. Managers, charged with retaining customers ('les responsables') in banks and building societies, are interviewed seeking their views on how their organizations retain customers. The study finds that there are a number of shared themes in the sample of informants, which are evolution/flux, customer information systems, a product/sales orientation, delivering financial services, staff and relationships with customers. Underlying these themes, however, appears some equivocation as these organizations try to retain customers when customer acquisition seems to be the thrust of their marketing.