US stock returns: are there seasons of excesses?

This article explores the existence of seasonality in the tails of stock returns. We use a parametric model to describe the returns, and obtain a proxy of the innovation distribution via a pre-processing model. Then, we develop a change-point algorithm capturing changes in the tails of the innovations. We confirm the good performance of the procedure through extensive Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical investigation using US stocks data shows that while the lower tail of the innovations is approximately constant over the year, the upper tail is larger in Winter than in Summer, in 9 out of 12 industries.     

A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt

Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country's financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country's financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation's sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country's government finances are transmitted to that country's financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.     

Audit Partner Disciplinary Actions and Financial Restatements

This study investigates the signalling role and rectification effectiveness of an audit partner disciplinary system. The signalling role refers to whether sanctions reflect the poor audit quality of disciplined audit partners, and rectification effectiveness addresses whether disciplinary actions enhance subsequent audit quality. The sample consists of Taiwanese listed companies, in the period 2000 to 2006, where the identities of audit partners who sign audit reports and who are sanctioned are accessible. Empirical results indicate that in the pre‐sanction period, the probability of financial restatements by clients of disciplined audit partners is significantly higher than that of non‐disciplined audit partners. The more severe or frequent the sanctions, the higher the likelihood of financial restatements in the pre‐sanction period. These findings imply that audit partner disciplinary actions can serve as a signal of lower audit quality provided by those partners. The rectification effectiveness of disciplinary actions is examined from two perspectives: (1) the effects on subsequent improvements of audit quality of disciplined audit partners; and (2) audit quality enhancement of successor non‐disciplined audit partners who accept clients from disciplined audit partners. Empirical results show a lower probability of restating financial statements audited by disciplined audit partners after sanctions. We also find a lower likelihood of restating financial statements audited by successor non‐disciplined audit partners in the post‐sanction period. Both findings support our conclusion that audit partner sanctions improve audit quality. Overall, audit partner disciplinary actions can signal lower quality audit partners and are effective in enhancing audit quality.     

External finance and dividend policy: a twist by financial constraints

This study assesses distorting effect of financial constraints on the inverse relationship between internal and external finance by examining impact of an exogenous financing shock (i.e. a regulation released in China in 2008) on dividend policies in a quasi‐natural experimental setting. Our result shows that in the absence of the regulation, the inverse relationship holds. However, the relation is twisted by the 2008 regulation. Compared with unconstrained firms, financially constrained firms are more willing to pay dividends and are more restrained to reduce cash dividends after the regulation, despite the fact that their external financing capacities are further constrained.     

S&P 500 index addition,liquidity management and Tobin's Q

This study examines the revision in cash holdings and the market valuation of investment opportunities of 475 firms added to the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock market index from 1980 to 2010. We find that newly indexed firms have evolved to significantly lower cash balances, which we partially explain by the decreasing growth opportunities following index inclusion. Consistent with index inclusion loosening financial constraints, we document a larger decrease in cash for index inclusions in sectors with high financial dependence. We sort S&P 500 inclusions by corporate governance quality but do not find any empirical support that changes in cash and Tobin's Q are related to management entrenchment.     

The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets

Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry‐level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia.     

中国五大城市群金融发展的空间差异及分布动态：2003~2013年

本文基于2003~2013年城市金融数据,采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度非参数估计方法实证考察了中国五大国家级城市群金融发展的空间差异及分布动态。研究结论如下,五大城市群总体、京津冀、长三角、成渝城市群金融发展水平呈总体上升趋势,珠三角、长中游城市群金融发展水平呈总体下降趋势。城市群金融发展具有显著的空间差异,其中京津冀城市群区域内差异最大,长三角与长中游城市群的区域间差异最大,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。各城市群金融发展区域内差异、区域间差异的演变趋势不一致,绝对差异与相对差异的演变趋势也不一致。城市群金融发展具有显著的梯度效应,呈现两极分化或多极分化趋势。     

On the ‘Review of Structure and Effectiveness of the IFRS Foundation’: the EAA’s Financial Reporting Standards Committee’s View

In July 2015 the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation launched its third five year review of its structure and effectiveness of the organisation. In a public call, the Trustees solicited stakeholders’ input on the relevance of IFRS Standards with respect to broadening the IFRS scope and to the impact of new technology, on the consistent application of IFRS and on the governance and funding of the International Accounting Standards Board and the IFRS Foundation. The European Accounting Association (EAA)’s Financial Reporting Standards Committee responded to this request for views by submitting a comment letter based on research-informed opinions. This article provides an overview of this Review of Structure and Effectiveness of the IFRS Foundation and the EAA’s opinions in response to this Review.     

韩国应对亚洲金融危机的经验及启示

20世纪70-80年代,经济崛起中的东亚经济体遵循金融深化的发展思路,纷纷开始了金融自由化进程。然而,1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发使得东亚经济体遭遇重创,韩国经济也陷入战后以来最严峻的时期。为应对危机,韩国政府果断地对金融体系进行改革,逐渐走出了危机的阴霭。韩国与我国有着相近的文化、历史背景及经济增长道路,经济社会的可比因素较多,韩国面临的一些经济金融困境对我国是难得的“前车之鉴”。分析韩国1997年金融危机爆发的原因、影响及应对策略,无疑会给我国正在推进的金融体制改革提供有益的借鉴。     

Europe's income convergence and the latest global financial crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on economic growth and convergence across European countries from 1973 to 2012. Employing cross-sectional and dynamic panel data techniques, the results show that the global financial crisis has brought a greater absolute convergence rate rather than divergence, affected richer members more heavily and, presumably, allowed less developed members to recover more quickly. We find evidence that creating the European Union has contributed toward economic growth and convergence; meanwhile, no similar evidence is found concerning the European Monetary Union. Moreover, we present evidence that both the average output per capita and the rate of convergence during the financial crisis fell around 7%.