1992-2002年我国服务业增长效率的实证分析

本文借助随机前沿生产函数模型，使用面板数据，分析了1992-2002年间我国服务业的增长效率特征。研究表明，在这段时间，我国服务业的发展远未能挖掘出现有资源和技术的潜力，技术效率低下；服务业增长主要依靠要素投入推动，全要素生产率的贡献微弱，粗放型特征比较明显。最后，文章据此提出了增强我国服务业竞争力的政策措施。     

基于贝叶斯结构突变的随机系数动态面板模型研究

针对目前随机系数动态面板模型中存在内生变量初始值固定、个体自回归系数平稳以及不存在结构突变的种种限制,本文提出用分层贝叶斯方法首次检测和估计了含未知结构突变的随机系数动态面板模型。容许初始值与个体相关,自回归系数服从logitnormal分布保证平稳性,得到了未知结构突变和随机系数的后验密度估计。对1995年到2012年中国五省市出口总值月度数据进行实证分析,检测出四个结构突变,分析突变前后的情况表明出口总值存在三大特征：呈现稳定增长态势,但省市间差距逐渐扩大;重大的外部需求冲击对出口有显著影响;出口总值的结构突变有明显的季节特征.     

Financial networks and systemic risk vulnerabilities: A tale of Indian banks

This study identifies the nature and direction of unprecedented upheavals in the Indian banking sector which is linked to credit market asymmetry. A tail-driven network approach with a mixed sample of banks and firms exhibits the characteristics of the twin-balance-sheet syndrome. We construct the networks with a degree of interconnectedness at different quantiles and identify major systemic risk emitters and receivers. Furthermore, we find a spillover of the riskiness of deep-in-debt firms to banks. Smaller banking institutions evince a greater connection to banks and firms than larger ones. Our results are valuable for policymakers formulating financial stabilization policies and investors considering Indian markets for various opportunities.     

跨境电商综合试验区对地区经济的影响及差异性分析——基于“反事实”视角

跨境电商综合试验区是国家推进贸易新业态,实现更高水平开放,助推经济高质量发展的重要举措。文章基于"反事实"视角下的合成控制法和面板数据政策评估方法,运用67个城市2001-2019年的面板数据,评估了我国设立的第一批和第二批跨境电商综合试验区的经济效应,并结合不同综试区的产业基础和制度改革的重点,比较分析不同综试区经济效应的地区差异性。结果表明,第一批杭州综试区对地区经济增长,对外贸易水平以及产业结构升级均有显著的促进作用;而第二批综试区的经济效应主要体现为对外贸易水平的促进作用,对地区经济增长和产业结构的效果不明显;在研究的五个综试区中,内陆地区综试区对外贸易的促进作用显著高于沿海地区综试区。文章建议各地区综试区不能简单复制杭州的做法,应该结合当地的产业特征,主动进行制度创新,才能有效发挥综试区对经济发展的促进效应;另一方面,国家应该扩大内陆地区综试区的设立,以克服非沿海城市发展传统国际贸易的区位劣势,促进更高水平的对外开放。     

When e-commerce becomes more human by transposing the hospitality concept to merchant websites

This research mobilizes the concept of hospitality, which is strongly anchored in human values, in the field of e-commerce. It demonstrates the relevance of drawing on the concept of hospitality in the context of e-commerce as well as how to do so. Based on a quantitative study of a sample of French consumers (n = 215), this research also shows how the hospitality of a commercial website impact the emotional reactions with positive and negative valence and the approach/avoidance behaviors towards the website.     

Bargain effectiveness in differentiated store environments: The role of store affect,processing fluency,and store familiarity

Two main types of value have been established in the retail literature: merchandise value based on the quality and price of a store's offerings and differentiation value based on the extent of atmospheric cues in the environment. However, it is not clear what happens when a store offers both types of value to a high degree. We investigate how offering a bargain (or price cut) affects consumer responses for high and low differentiation store environments. In two studies, using a simulated store environment in a behavioural laboratory, we find that the presence of bargains in a highly differentiated store environment negatively influences store affect and, in turn, approach behaviour. This effect, however, only holds true for low familiarity stores and can be explained by processing fluency theory. Consequently, retailers focusing on store environment differentiation should reconsider their use of bargains.     

Analyzing the effects of storefront window display transparency on perceived store Attractiveness and Approach behavior

This study evaluated the impact of visual transparency vs. opaqueness in storefront window displays in relation to consumer responses and approach behavior. While there is extensive prior literature analyzing various design features in such exterior-facing displays, the ability to see through or around the window displays to observe the store interior has not received much research attention. Theories of cognitive processing fluency suggest that reductions in environmental “unknowns” are associated with feelings of pleasure, comfort, and environmental affinity. Thus, we hypothesized that more transparent window displays would be associated with higher ratings of store attractiveness, more time spent observing the stores, and a greater likelihood of participants approaching the stores after viewing the displays. The use of a virtual-reality approach made it possible to isolate and adjust the storefront display transparency while holding other environmental variables constant. Our findings confirmed that highly transparent window displays were associated with greater attractiveness ratings and longer durations of observation, and that these effects were mediated by a reduction in perceived visual complexity and increases in feelings of pleasure. We did not find a significant difference in approach behavior, but this may be due to the fact that our participants were aware they could not actually enter the stores in the VR presentation. The results provisionally indicate that retailers should attend to the visibility of the ground-level store interior when designing their window displays.