基于投影模型的不确定语言型多属性决策方法及应用

研究了不确定语言型多属性决策评价结果与决策者对方案的偏好信息之间存在偏差的问题,提出了基于投影模型的不确定多属性决策方法。该方法通过建立与区间型语言标度对应的术语指标矩阵,及方案综合属性值与决策者主观偏好值之间的投影模型,确定属性的权重,然后运用加权法得到方案的综合属性值,利用已有的可能度矩阵排序公式得到决策方案的排序。最后,通过算例对该方法的实用性和有效性进行了说明。     

Productivity Growth, Efficiency and Outsourcing in Manufacturing and Service Industries

This paper is a survey of recent contributions to, and developments of, the relationship between outsourcing, efficiency and productivity growth in manufacturing and services. The objective is to provide a thorough and up–to–date survey that provides a significant discussion on data, as well as on the core methods of measuring efficiency and productivity. First, the readers are introduced to the measurement of partial and total factor productivity growth. Different parametric and non–parametric approaches to the productivity measurement in the context of static, dynamic and firm–specific modelling are discussed. Second, we survey the econometric approach to efficiency analysis. The issues of modelling, distributional assumptions and estimation methods are discussed assuming that cross–sectional or panel data are available. Third, the relationship between outsourcing and productivity growth in manufacturing and services is discussed. The correspondence between a number of hypotheses and empirical findings are examined. Examples of varieties of relevant empirical applications, their findings and implications are presented. Fourth, measurement of inputs and outputs in manufacturing and services are discussed. Finally, to promote useful research, a number of factors important to the analysis of outsourcing, efficiency and productivity growth in the service sector are summarised.     

Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

稳健财政政策下国债的适度规模与管理

2005年起,我国开始实行稳健的财政政策,经济运行方式发生了变化,国债政策作为以前积极财政政策调节经济方向的重要工具也应采取相应变化以促进经济向前发展.由此加强我国国债规模管理,不仅应从总体上缩小国债规模,更应该注重国债资金的使用效率,对其加强监督管理.     

不确定条件下企业资本结构研究及现实意义

资本结构理论是现代金融理论的重要基石之一。经典的资本结构理论以有效市场为基础,忽视了不确定性对企业融资行为的重要影响。把不确定性纳入企业资本结构模型研究,讨论了在不确定性环境下,如何通过资本结构的优化,实现企业价值最大化,对中国公司融资行为实践有重要的现实意义。     

基于DEA模型的城市科技活动效率评价

将DEA理论应用于广东21城市科技活动的分析中，建立评价城市科技活动效率的数据包络分析模型，谊模型评价了各城市的总体效率和技术效率的状况，进而对非DEA有效的城市提出达到DEA有效的可行措施，并分析了城市科技活动效率和资源配置之间的关系。     

零售业上市公司业绩的DEA有效性分析

本文应用DEA模型对零售业上市公司的业绩进行了实证研究,通过DEA有效分析和规模收益分析对八家上市公司的业绩进行了效率衡量,为投资者理性投资提供了参考依据,也为上市公司提高效率提供了数据借鉴。     

关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析

中国文化在一定程度上是一种关系本位的文化。渗透于我国社会生活的所谓关系网,对我国的经济活动有深刻的影响。本文选择了关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响这一视角,通过构建关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响的模型,考察了银行收益与融资量和概率间的关系,同时考察了企业融资需求与价格间的关系。通过研究发现央行单一紧缩货币总量、管制利率政策都难以有效控制商业银行的关系型贷款量,而关系型融资情况下信息不对称和预算软约束的存在更使央行的货币政策难于有效传导,央行的总量性货币政策难于奏效。为此,本文探讨了提高央行货币政策有效性的对策,以期达到货币政策对关系型融资的有效传导。     

模糊数学在桥梁造价编制中的应用

工程造价的确定是工程造价管理中一个核心的组成部分,如何准确、快速的确定工程造价是目前工程造价管理中的一个探讨热点,将模糊数学的原理运用于工程项目造价编制,建立了基于模糊数学的工程造价确定模型,此模型可实现工程项目造价准确、快速、精确的编制,最后将此模型应用于公路桥梁工程的造价编制。     

我国地方政府显性债务问题实证分析

本文对我国某地区显性债务规模与结构进行分析，结果表明，从规模上看，我国地方政府显性债务具有规模庞大，不断扩张，超出了地方财力规模，逾期债务比重较大等特点；从结构上看，我国地方政府显性债务具有来源复杂等特点。同时，通过对债务规模与某些因素的相关分析表明，我国地方政府显性债务规模与地方经济总量存在相关性。