Sequential control of time series by functionals of kernal-weighted empirical processes under local alternatives

Motivated in part by applications in model selection in statistical genetics and sequential monitoring of financial data, we study an empirical process framework for a class of stopping rules which rely on kernel-weighted averages of past data. We are interested in the asymptotic distribution for time series data and an analysis of the joint influence of the smoothing policy and the alternative defining the deviation from the null model (in-control state). We employ a certain type of local alternative which provides meaningful insights. Our results hold true for short memory processes which satisfy a weak mixing condition. By relying on an empirical process framework we obtain both asymptotic laws for the classical fixed sample design and the sequential monitoring design. As a by-product we establish the asymptotic distribution of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother when the regressors do not get dense as the sample size increases.Acknowledgements The author is grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive comments, which improved the paper. One referee draws my attention to Lifshits paper. The financial support of the Collaborative Research Centre Reduction of Complexity in Multivariate Data Structures (SFB 475) of the German Research Foundation (DFG) is greatly acknowledged.     

State competition in higher education: A race to the top,or a race to the bottom?

How does competition affect higher education? This paper explores this question for public and private universities. Theory indicates that competition can push higher education policy in one of two different directions. On the one hand, competition may increase spending. For states, this would occur if states treat higher education as developmental; for private universities this would occur if they view spending as a means to attract students and prestige. On the other hand, competition may decrease spending if states treat higher education spending as redistributive, and competition may decrease spending by private schools if lower spending enhances their ability to attract students with low tuition. To determine which of these perspectives is most valid, we examine higher education policy choices in the 1980s and 1990s. We find that states appear to act as if higher education funding is redistributive while private schools appear to compete more on the basis of tuition than spending. These results demonstrate the important effects competition and governance structure have on higher education.Received: August 2001, Accepted: May 2002, JEL Classification: I2, I22, H72, I3     

Financing enterprise development in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines some critical gaps in the financial infrastructurein sub-Saharan Africa, which have contributed to the poor performanceof productive investment by private agents. It first analysesthe performance of financial systems, encompassing both formaland informal financial sectors, in relation to the changingpolicy environment, and key features of the financial marketstructure. It then identifies those gaps in financial servicesthat have been particularly detrimental to private investment,enterprise growth and transformation. Finally, the paper considerspolicy implications drawn from East Asian experiences with respectto financial policies, institutional arrangements and marketintegration measures for financing enterprise development.     

发展政策性金融有待解决的三大难题

我国未来政策性金融的发展前景取决于三大难题的解决,即政策性金融的生存空间、业务领域、保障机制。本文认为,政策性金融是市场机制有益的和必要的补充,政策性金融的存在使一国的金融体系得以完善。市场的不足内生了政策性金融的生存空间和具体的业务领域,政策性金融作为一种特殊的金融制度安排,具有战略意义,但政策性金融的可持续发展有赖于专门法律制度的构建和完善。     

"退而更化":中国合作金融的改良之路

合作金融的现代化从社会哲学上看,涉及到如何处理现代化与传统之间的紧张关系;涉及到否定传统、移植西方体制的思维方式对错的问题.从回答这个基本社会哲学问题入手,检讨中国传统合作金融组织——舍会的珍贵遗产,申明白愿原则是合作金融的灵魂以及这个灵魂对当今中国合作金融的改良所具有的价值.在此基础上,本文提出了以组建中国农村合作银行为核心的政策建议,而中国农业银行出售非农业务、回归农村,与农村信用社进行资本重组与业务整舍,是现实可行的一条最佳途径.     

Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyse its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behaviour of financial measures for SMEs is analysed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on panel data of over 2,000 U.S. firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out-of-sample prediction power which is almost 30 per cent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.     

中国经济学金融学理论与教育工作者的历史任务

经济转型过程中的中国金融学研究范式面临着转型困扰。模型化与工程化是金融学研究方法的一种进步,但金融学并非惟工程化才成为其自身。金融理论研究范式西化倾向极端化的背后,同样存在着国家政治经济学问题。深入反思中外文化差异,反思金融学的研究对象与研究方法之“本末”关系,挖掘、研究、传承和弘扬中国优秀历史文化遗产,并将其纳入到金融学科研与教学中来,由此夯实中国年轻一代的民族文化底蕴,增强其民族自尊、自信与自豪感,是中国金融学理论与教学工作者的历史使命。     

中国政府金融监管制度的演进与特点（1900～1949）

中国的金融监管始于20世纪初,经历了清末、北洋政府和南京国民政府等不同时期;金融监管体制经历了"单一监管——双头监管——单一监管"的变迁过程;其变迁方式表现为以强制性变迁为主,诱致性变迁为辅,且二者之间为一种逆向交替关系。     

我国农村金融边缘化初探

随着我国正规金融在农村市场的萎缩,农村金融日益陷入边缘化的状态,从而使农村金融对"三农"的支持乏力,这已经成为农村经济发展的"瓶颈",成为新农村建设的重要制约因素.因此,破解农村金融边缘化困境已迫在眉睫.本文分析了农村金融边缘化问题,探寻其产生原因,并提出了解决边缘化的对策性建议.     

我国中小企业财务实力评价研究

借助于可量化的财务指标评价中小企业财务实力状况,这是中小企业经济发展评价研究的主要内容之一。本文从企业偿债能力、盈利能力、资产管理能力、现金流能力等维度设计11个财务指标,以改进的功效系数法对指标值进行综合评价,以主成分分析法对各项指标赋予权重,从而得出我国目前中小企业财务实力状况评价结果,并在此基础上提出相应的改进对策。