Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets

This paper analyses the intraday lead-lag relationships between returns and volatilities in the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets. Using hourly data, we jointly analyze the interactions between markets, estimating a bivariate error correction model with GARCH perturbations which captures stochastically the presence of an intraday U-shaped curve for both spot and futures market volatility. Our findings show a bidirectional causal relationship between market volatilities, with a positive feedback. This two-way transmission of volatility is consistent with market prices evolving according to a long-run equilibrium relationship, and shocks affecting both markets in the same direction. Our empirical results also support a unidirectional cross interaction from futures to spot market returns. This pattern suggests that the futures market leads the spot market in order to incorporate the arrival of new information.     

Intra-Industry Reactions to Stock Split Announcements

We examine whether favorable information conveyed by stock split announcements transfers to nonsplitting firms within the same industry. On average, nonsplitting firms' shareholders experience positive and significant abnormal returns at the stock split announcements of their industry counterparts. In addition, industrywide and firm-specific characteristics are important determinants in explaining nonsplitting firms' stock returns. These firms' earnings increase significantly, and the earnings changes are positively related to the stock price reactions. Finally, we find no evidence that investors revise the value of nonsplitting firms because they anticipate a decline in earnings volatility.     

Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.     

The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds

This paper studies the behavior of the default-risk-free real term structure and term premia in two general equilibrium endowment economies with complete markets but without money. In the first economy there are no frictions as in Lucas (Econometrica 46 (1978) 1429) and in the second risk-sharing is limited by the risk of default as in Alvarez and Jermann (Econometrica 68 (2000) 775; Rev. Financial Studies 14 (2001) 1117). Both models are solved numerically, calibrated to UK aggregate and household data, and the predictions are compared to data on real interest rates constructed from the UK index-linked data. While both models produce time-varying risk or term premia, only the model with limited risk-sharing can generate enough variation in the term premia to account for the rejections of expectations hypothesis.     

Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

Valuing the Option to Purchase an Asset at a Proportional Discount

I analyze the value of a nonstandard call option that allows the holder to purchase an underlying asset at a discount proportional to the asset's market price. Several applications for this type of option exist, including its use in employee compensation contracts. I derive the value of this option for a dividend-paying asset and for an option whose exercise price reflects a time-varying discount factor. The derived value incorporates the optimal time at which the option should be exercised. One application of this option relates to a residential real estate program in China.     

Competitive and Information Effects of Cross-Border Stock Listings

We examine the effect of 269 cross‐border listings on rivals in the listing and domestic markets and find that U.S. rivals experience significant gains whereas domestic rivals do not. Both competitive and information effects are important in explaining the reaction of U.S. rivals. Regarding the competitive effects, the reaction of rivals is less favorable when listings originate in developed countries and more favorable when listing firms do not have prior operating presence in the United States. Regarding the information effects, the reaction is less favorable when listings are combined with equity offerings and more favorable when the listing is the first to occur within an industry.     

基于价值网的移动通信运营商标准竞争战略研究

标准是经过各方协商并由公认部门公布的统一规范。随着中国进入后WTO时代,特别是移动通信3G时代的来临,基于标准的竞争日益成为通信技术领域企业竞争的战略方向。而价值网是价值链向外延伸发展的高级阶段,在标准竞争战略中占有重要地位。文章从技术进步与融合背景下运营商所面临的机遇与挑战入手,构建了一个标准竞争战略的分析框架,探讨了移动通信运营商基于价值网的标准竞争战略。     

Short sellers and insider trading profitability: A natural experiment

We examine the impact of short sellers on insider trading profitability using a natural experiment of a pilot program which relaxed short-selling constraints for randomly selected pilot stocks. We find that pilot firms experienced a significant decrease in insider trading profitability during the pilot program. The results are more pronounced for the pilot firms with poor information quality, and for the pilot firms without corporate restrictions on insider trading. Our evidence suggests that short sellers serve an important market disciplinary role by reducing insider trading profitability.     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.