The demand functions that satisfy the weak axiom of revealed preference and generalized monotonicity

We prove that the individual demand function satisfying the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference and the excess demand function satisfying the Wald’s Axiom are pseudomonotone_*⁺, a new class of generalized monotonicity. With this new concept, we refine the characterization of Zhou for the individual demand function. In particular, a full characterization for the excess demand functions satisfying the Wald’s Axiom is derived.     

The transition to an oil contraction economy

A normative analysis of the problem of optimal extraction of a nonrenewable resource is considered. The economy depends on the essential nonrenewable resource and the rate of the resource extraction is increasing over time. At some point the government gradually switches to a sustainable (in sense of non-decreasing consumption over time) pattern of the resource extraction. Different approaches are offered for the construction of the paths of switching to decreasing resource use. Some seemingly attractive short-run policies of switching to decreasing extraction can run counter to long-run criteria. If we consider the maximin principle, applied to the negative shock on the output percent change, as the short-run criterion, then the optimal transition path can be consistent with the long-run government goals. It is shown analytically and numerically that there are values of parameters for the transition paths of extraction that consumption along these paths is asymptotically constant or infinitely growing. A new approach to the Rawlsian maximin criterion which allows for growth of consumption is offered.     

Multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions: An empirical investigation

The aim of this paper is to estimate multivariate affine generalized distributions (MAGH) using market data. We use the Ibovespa, CAC, DAX, FTSE, NIKKEI and S&P500 indexes. We estimate the univariate distributions, bi-variate distributions and six-dimensional distribution. Then we assess their goodness of fit using Kolmogorov distances. As an application we study the efficient frontier.     

Forecasting risk measures using intraday data in a generalized autoregressive score framework

A new framework for the joint estimation and forecasting of dynamic value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) is proposed by our incorporating intraday information into a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model introduced by Patton et al., 2019 to estimate risk measures in a quantile regression set-up. We consider four intraday measures: the realized volatility at 5-min and 10-min sampling frequencies, and the overnight return incorporated into these two realized volatilities. In a forecasting study, the set of newly proposed semiparametric models are applied to four international stock market indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100) and are compared with a range of parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric models, including historical simulations, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the original GAS models. VaR and ES forecasts are backtested individually, and the joint loss function is used for comparisons. Our results show that GAS models, enhanced with the realized volatility measures, outperform the benchmark models consistently across all indices and various probability levels.     

Household welfare implications of sustainable land management practices among smallholder farmers in Ghana

This study employs farm household data to examine the impact of adoption of sustainable land management practices on consumption and poverty outcomes using multivalued treatment effects approaches. The generalized propensity score approach was employed to account for selectivity bias due to observed characteristics among households. Using a doubly robust treatment effects estimator, we found that increasing intensity of adoption improved per capita consumption expenditure, reduced poverty headcount and poverty gap among farm households. The results of the multivalued treatment effects approach revealed significant differences between adopters of different adoption intensities, a finding that is not possible with binary treatment effect approaches. The findings also revealed that the average treatment effect of moving from low intensity to high intensity adoption levels differed across quantiles of per capita consumption. We also use a dose-response function to demonstrate that the treatment effect of intensity of adoption on per capita consumption and poverty outcomes is nonlinear, with optimal adoption level occurring between 60–70 % of adoption intensity dose. It is therefore recommended that initial government support in sustainable land management is necessary to sustain and upscale individual household efforts towards investment in sustainable land management.     

区域技术市场发展对创新的驱动作用

利用我国2002-2015年省级面板数据，考察技术市场对创新的影响，研究区域研发环境与技术创新的协同作用。首先，通过构建GMM模型稳健性检验，发现在控制物质资本、人力资本、制度因素、R&D投入、FDI、对外贸易、市场化程度等各种影响因素后，技术市场对创新具有显著影响，且对技术含量较高的发明专利的影响弹性最大；其次，通过交互项检验和门槛回归，发现R&D物质资本和人力资本对技术市场存在两个门槛，跨越门槛将增加技术市场的边际创新产出；再次，技术市场发展对各类专利贡献率的测度结果显示，发达地区技术市场对发明专利的贡献最大。据此提出加速我国技术市场发展、因地制宜改善区域研发环境、进一步强化技术市场驱动高质量创新发展等政策建议。     

政府补贴对造纸企业出口的影响效应评估

基于造纸企业1998—2013年的非平衡面板数据构建动态面板模型,采用一般矩估计方法(GMM)克服内生性问题,明确政府补贴与造纸企业出口的因果关系,检验政府补贴对造纸企业出口扩张的影响效应,结果显示:当期的补贴收入对受补贴造纸企业出口未产生显著影响,而滞后一期的补贴收入对造纸企业当期出口具有显著的促进作用,该滞后效应出现在间断性出口企业中,但未在持续出口企业中出现,在一定程度上反映出政府补贴能激励造纸企业进入国际市场,但不是持续出口企业出口规模扩张的关键要素;滞后一期的补贴收入对纸浆及造纸企业的出口具有促进作用,但对纸及纸制品企业的出口无显著影响。     

Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis

This paper examines whether individual stocks can act as inflation hedgers. We focus on longer investment horizons and construct in- and out-of-sample portfolios based on the long-run relationship (cointegration) of stock prices with respect to consumer prices. Empirical evidence suggests that investors are better off by holding a portfolio of stocks with higher long-run betas as part of asset selection and allocation strategy. Stocks that outperform inflation tend to be drawn from the Energy and Industrial sectors. Finally, we observe that the companies average inflation hedging ability declined steadily over the past ten years, while the number of firms that hedge inflation has decreased considerably after the recent downturn of the US economy.     

On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach

We combine the global Hurst exponent and Morlet wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) to investigate the dynamic behaviour of six selected stock markets in the Mediterranean region. Specifically, we employ the resonance coefficients and their power spectra to identify potential extreme movements and long-term dependence in stock returns. Using weekly data for the period 2005 to 2010, our results reveal that the wavelet MRA is able to reconstruct the effects of major extreme shocks on stock returns of studied markets, such as the Asian financial crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Moreover, the wavelet-based global Hurst exponent indicates the presence of long-term dependencies in stock returns of all the considered markets, except for France where the anti-persistent behaviour is detected. Overall, our findings are useful to assess the stock market efficiency and provide new insights into stock market dynamics over different time scales.     

金融市场的非线性:混沌与分形

传统的金融理论在有效市场假设的基础上,假定市场的收益率变化服从正态分布或对数正态分布, 但事实上,市场收益率分布明显偏离状态分布,呈现一种“胖尾特征”,由此根据非线性科学的混沌理 论和分形理论,对金融市场分形特征研究进行总结,并分析了国内外的研究现状。