美国房地产泡沫、世界经济不平衡与金融危机——兼驳金融危机根源外部论

对于世界经济不平衡与金融危机的关系,存在两种不同的观点:一种观点认为世界经济不平衡是金融危机产生的根源,顺差国庞大的过剩储蓄最终引发了金融危机;而另一种观点则认为愈演愈烈的世界经济不平衡却并不必然造成金融危机,而是同金融危机一样,根源于美国国内经济的某些扭曲。两者差别在于将危机的根源归于外因还是内因。本文通过理论分析与格兰杰因果实证检验,否定了危机根源外部论,并证明了后一种观点:美国房地产泡沫(美国国内经济扭曲的重要表现)在造成金融危机的同时,促进了世界经济不平衡的扩大。     

Integrated production planning with sequence-dependent family setup times

This paper proposes an integrated optimization model of aggregate production planning (APP), family disaggregation planning, and family scheduling problems in hierarchical production planning (HPP) systems considering sequence-dependent family setup times. The model obtains the optimal production plan for each product type and product family in each period, together with the globally optimal production sequence of product families in all planning periods. The proposed model is tested with randomly generated experimental data consistent with what is prevalent in the manufacturing industry and its results are compared with those of the traditional HPP models. Our results show that the integrated model realizes greater cost savings.     

论国际公共事务管理：国际组织与全球治理

本文将公共管理范畴延伸到国际范畴,构建了从公共管理到国际公共管理的逻辑框架;论述了作为全球化时代国际公共管理方式的全球治理模式;剖析了作为全球治理过程中最主要参与者的国际组织的内涵、分类及其参与全球治理的方式。文后还剖析了作为国际组织的世界遗产委员会参与国际公共事务管理的全球治理活动案例。     

Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis

Patterns of causation between income, export, import and investment growth for 39 developing countries are examined using model selection techniques which are based on ex ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best predictive model for each country. In particular, we look at the incidence of causation and reverse causation between various economic variables which are commonly believed to lead economic growth and find that there is less reverse causation from income to these variables than previously thought. We also construct an index of global business cycle conditions and find that models of countries with high trade exposure, growth rates and investment rates tend to gain in predictive ability from the addition of this variable.     

我国如何应对国际资本对华流动的新变化

90年代中后期以来，国际对华投资呈现出新的特点。本较具体地分析了国际资本对华流动的新变化，在我国加入WTO后的新形势下，就如何有效地利用国际资本来促进我国经济的健康发展提出自己的看法。     

中外物流业比较及我国的对策

在全面了解国内外物流业发展状况的基础上，提出了我国发展物流业的措施。     

全球价值链视角下的产业集群创新成长战略——以柳州汽车产业集群为例

本文通过集群创新相关概念的澄清,结合对柳州汽车产业集群创新实例的分析,指出地方产业集群的创新瓶颈;提出了制定以增强自主创新能力为目的的产业集群发展政策,以及加大基础研究资助力度等建议。     

Unemployment or protectionism: Some choices for the USA and Western Europe to the year 2000

This article reports on the economic implications to the USA and Western European economies after imposing protectionist trade policies on selected groups of imports till 2000. The effects of this policy are also presented for Japan and the non-oil-producing developing countries. Before discussing the results of the computations and the import restricting assumptions, a summary of the methodological framework, the World Input-Output Model, used in the computation is presented.     

未定权益分析方法与中国宏观金融风险的测度分析

本文利用未定权益分析方法(CCA),在汇集、处理与整合编制多方数据的基础上,通过建立国民经济机构部门层面的风险财务报表,测度了2000—2008年我国的宏观金融风险,并直观展示和分析了该期间国民经济各机构部门风险敞口的动态演变情况。本文在我国特殊的数据背景下,基于我国金融市场发展的现状,探索了测度和监控我国系统性金融风险的具体理论与方法。