银行信贷结构对区域经济增长影响的实证分析——基于灰色关联度模型和VAR模型的研究

银行信贷结构一般分为期限结构和产业结构两个方面。以潍坊市为研究对象,利用灰色关联度模型和VAR模型针对该市银行信贷的期限结构和产业结构影响当地经济增长进行了实证分析。实证结果显示,潍坊市金融机构的短期贷款对经济增长的相关性和贡献度都强于中长期贷款,金融机构投放服务业贷款和房地产业贷款,相较于投放基础设施产业贷款,对经济增长的刺激作用更强。     

Selective Distribution,Refusal to Sell and the Monopolies and Mergers Commission

Refusal to sell to ‘unauthorised’ dealers is an integral part of a selective distribution system. Under such a system manufacturers authorise only those dealers meeting their specific requirements. Where the market involved is ‘reasonably competitive’ it is widely recognised that manufacturers, dealers and consumers can gain. The British Monopolies and Mergers Commission (MMC) has been criticised for its interpretation of what constitutes a ‘reasonably competitive’ market. In a recent report into the supply of fine fragrances the issue was again central to its findings that the selective distribution system was not against the public interest. The European Commission has also recently granted exemption from Article 85 for the distribution system operated by the leading firms. We argue that the MMCs analysis of competition was again flawed in this case and that the danger to the consumer and new entrants is compounded by the Europe–wide exemption.     

上市公司知识资本业绩相关性探析

依据CIV模型,对我国上市公司知识资本业绩相关性进行分析,可得知识资本与企业净利润、企业净现金流正相关,具有盈利性特征。同时知识资本与企业账面无形资产低度正相关,说明账面无形资产部分地反映了企业知识资本。     

省级地区能源-经济-环境协调发展分析与研究

本文通过对能源(Energy)-经济(Economy)-环境(Environment)系统指标评价体系进行优化筛选,增加对居民健康水平的考察指标。利用主成份分析法和协调系数对中国省级地区进行协调度测算并借助灰色系统相关理论对测算结果进行评价分析,发现2002-2011年间,山西、内蒙古、浙江等11个省级地区处于优质协调状态,辽宁、吉林、安徽等10个省级地区处于良好协调状态,北京、天津、重庆等6个省级地区处于不同程度的不协调状态之间,黑龙江、上海、河南则处于严重不协调状态。     

基于灰色系统的上海世博会对第三产业影响分析

选取上海市的第三产业为研究对象,针对2010年上海世博会对第三产业中金融业、交通业、旅游业、城市建设业、房地产业、商业饮食业、文化业等7个行业的影响力进行评价,建立灰色系统综合评价模型。通过定量评估,得到了世博会对2002—2009年间第三产业的影响力。利用所建模型预测了世博会对2010—2015年间第三产业的影响力。该模型在预测活动对社会各行业影响力的研究中具有很好的推广性。     

英汉疾病隐喻的关联认知阐释——兼谈对英语教学的启示

疾病隐喻是人们将熟知的、常见的一些其他领域的概念映射到疾病领域而产生的,它也是一种以话语为框架、以词为焦点的话语现象。疾病隐喻的使用与理解实际上都是受关联原则支配的,可以运用语用学的关联认知理论对疾病隐喻的产生与理解机制进行阐释,这对英语教学方面也具有一定的启示。     

SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry

The aim of this paper is to propose a new model that improves the Damp Trend Grey Model (DTGM) with a dynamic seasonal damping factor to forecast routes passengers demand (pax) in the air transportation industry. The model is called the SARIMA Damp Trend Grey Forecasting Model (SDTGM). In the DTGM, the damp trend factor is a static smoothing factor because it does not change over time, and therefore, it cannot capture the dynamic behavior of time series data. For this reason, the modification consists in using the trend and seasonality effects of time series data to calculate a dynamic damp trend factor as time grows. The DTGM damping factor is based on the forecasted data obtained by the GM(1,1) model; otherwise, the SDTGM calculates a seasonal damping factor based on historical data using a large amount of data points for short lead-times. The SDTGM has less uncertainty than the DTGM. The simulation results show that the SDTGM captures the seasonality effect and does not allow the forecast to exponentially grow. The SDTGM forecasts more reasonable routes pax for short lead-times when having a large amount of data points than the DTGM. The United States domestic air transport market data are used to compare the performance of the DTGM against the proposed SDTGM.     

浅谈《水浒传》中称谓的翻译

汉语的称谓非常复杂。由于中西方文化的差异,汉语中的一些称谓无法在英语中找到对应的词。但关联理论的出现使得这些称谓的翻译成为可能。本文对《水浒传》的两个英译本中关于称谓的一些对应的句子,从关联理论角度进行对比分析,看它们是否传达了原文想要表达的意图,看读者理解它时是否需要过多的处理努力,从而判断他们的翻译是否准确合理。     

中国人口老龄化对消费结构影响的灰色关联度分析

我国目前处于快速老龄化阶段。人口老龄化会对消费结构产生影响。利用灰色系统的理论与方法,通过对不同年龄段人口数与不同消费品消费量间关联度的计算,得出人口老龄化对不同消费品消费造成的影响。在对计算结果分析的基础上,提出为顺利度过人口老龄化,应对消费结构做出调整。     

广西北部湾港口物流产业关联特性研究

港口物流作为基础性、聚合性产业,与国民经济体系及其他产业具有较强的关联特性。运用Pearson相关系数和灰色关联模型,利用北部湾经济区相关历史数据对其港口物流产业关联特性进行定量分析,以期对广西北部湾临港产业布局优化及转型升级提供决策依据。