我国地区产业多样化、技术创新与经济发展--基于面板数据联立方程模型的研究

在分析我国地区产业多样化、技术创新与经济发展之间相互影响机制的基础上,构建联立方程组模型,并利用2003-2011年我国31个省份的面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明,产业多样化通过技术创新促进地区经济发展;相邻地区产业多样化与创新水平对地区经济发展影响显著为正,表明存在空间依赖效应;进一步将产业多样化划分为相关和无关多样化,发现相关多样化是创新产出的主要原动力,无关多样化的影响效应不显著。     

中国城市化与经济增长关系实证分析

利用中国1987-2008年的省际面板数据,结合联立方程和分布滞后模型,考察了中国城市化与经济增长之间的相互影响。研究发现:城市化与经济增长的相互促进作用在短期内存在;从累积效应来看,城市化对经济增长呈现显著的负面影响,同时经济增长对城市化也呈现显著的负面影响;从长期来看,中国的经济增长与城市化相互促进的良性循环机制并未形成。     

A dynamic hazard-based system of equations of vehicle ownership with endogenous long-term decision factors incorporating group decision making

The transportation system affects all aspects of our daily lives including relatively long-term decisions on work and home location choice and automobile ownership decisions. The interdependency existing among these three decisions jointly influences household mobility and overall travel patterns. Therefore, a dynamic modeling framework that can account for the effects of interdependencies between vehicle transaction behavior and residential and job location choices is highly desirable. These decisions are made in the household level while individuals’ decisions influence the overall outcome; therefore, it is also important to incorporate a group decision making process within such modeling frameworks.This study introduces a dynamic model for vehicle ownership, residential mobility, and employment relocation timing decisions. These decisions are modeled at the individual level and then sequentially aggregated to the household level if it is required. A hazard-based system of equations is formulated and applied in which work location and residential location changes are included as endogenous variables in the vehicle transaction model while other important factors such as land-use and built environment variables, household dynamics, and individuals’ socio-demographics are also considered.     

Measurement properties of rankings and ratings

Ratings are the dominant approach to construct measurement in the social and behavioral sciences, including the applied business disciplines. The literature documents problems with the use of ratings, but workable alternatives are few. This paper proposes the use of rankings for construct measurement. Rankings and ratings are systematically evaluated using multitrait–multimethod (MTMM) structural equations modeling. MTMM models partition the variation in measures into trait, method, and error components. The assessment presented here favors rankings for construct measurement for the brand context studied. The analysis presents a test of the brand signaling model that Erdem and Swait (1998) propose.     

Fee-for-service payments and consultation length in general practice: a work–leisure trade-off model for French GPs

This article presents an adaptation of the labour supply model applied to the independent medical sector. First, we model simultaneous General Practitioner (GP) decisions on both the leisure time and the consultation length for two payment schemes: fixed fees and unregulated fees. The objective of this econometric study is to validate the theoretical prediction that doctors under unregulated fees may make choices about the length of patient consultations independent of their personal leisure decision. Indeed, according to our empirical results, the bidirectional link between leisure choice and consultation length – verified with fixed fees – does not hold any longer under unregulated fees. Our findings can be seen as a necessary but not a sufficient condition to legitimize unregulated fees in general practice.     

Aggregravity: estimating gravity models from aggregate data

This article considers alternative methods to estimate econometric models based on bilateral data when only aggregate information on the dependent variable is available. Such methods can be used to obtain an indication of the sign and magnitude of bilateral model parameters and, more importantly, to decompose aggregate into bilateral data, which can then be used as proxy variables in further empirical analyses. We perform a Monte Carlo study and carry out a simple real world application using intra-EU trade and capital flows, showing that the methods considered work reasonably well and are worthwhile being considered in the absence of bilateral data.     

Cost Efficiency and the Choice of Operation Type: Evidence from Taiwan's International Tourist Hotels

This study investigated the endogenous relationship between the differences in cost efficiency and hotel owners' choices of either remaining an independently operated establishment or joining an international chain. We applied observations of 72 international tourist hotels in Taiwan from 1997 to 2008 to a simultaneous equations model with qualitative and limited dependent variables. The study results suggest that joining international chains significantly improves cost efficiency. We also found that net gains from improving both cost efficiency and hotel location are the two foremost determinants for an owner's decision to join an international hotel chain.     

Risk based capital for guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit

The guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB), which is sold as a rider to variable annuity contracts, guarantees the return of total purchase payment regardless of the performance of the underlying investment funds. The valuation of GMWB has been extensively covered in the previous literature, but a more challenging problem is the computation of the risk based capital for risk management and regulatory reasons. One needs to find the tail distribution of the profit–loss function, which differs from its expected payoff required for pricing the GMWB contract. GMWB has embedded two option-like features: Management fees are proportional to the current value of the policyholder’s account which results in an average price of the account. Thus the contract resembles an Asian option. However, the fees are charged only up to the time of the account hitting zero which resembles a barrier option payoff. Thus the GMWB is mathematically more complicated than Asian or barrier options traded on the financial markets. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first paper in the literature to formulate and analyse profit–loss distribution using PDE methods of such a product with intricate option-like features. Our approach is much more efficient than the current market practice of rather intensive and expensive Monte Carlo simulations due to the lack of samples for extreme cases.     

非关税措施量化公式评价

与直接可以用税率高低来度量其保护程度的关税不一样．非关税措施是一种隐蔽的难以直接度量其保护作用的贸易保护主义手段。本文评价了近年来国外普遍采用的非关税措施保护作用的量化方法,包括频度——类型测算法、价格对比测算法、支持率测算法的设计思路和运用状况．以便为不时发生的贸易争端和贸易谈判提供可以用来判断进口国非关税措施保护程度的分析工具。     

On non-ergodic asset prices

We investigate the asset prices dynamics and the long-run market shares of two competing financial mediators who are selected by consumers. We demonstrate that the social interaction among consumers constitutes an endogenous path-depending source of risk in a financial market. Depending on consumers’ evaluation of the mediator’s investment, asset prices may behave in a non-ergodic manner: the price process converges in distribution but the limiting distribution is not necessarily uniquely determined, its multiplicity being characterized by the multiplicity of possible long-run market shares. The convergence of the process is sensitive to initial conditions and depends on the history of noise-trader transactions. Long-run portfolio holdings may be in-efficient since investors holding mean-variance efficient portfolios may not be identified.