住房需求与经济基本面——基于购房者风险偏好视角的研究

文章通过建立住房需求与商品消费跨期决策模型,将收入、物价、房价、房贷、利率、人口等经济基本面因素纳入局部均衡分析中,证明了这些变量对住房需求的影响主要取决于购房者的风险态度,住房需求与经济基本面之间主要表现为一种抛物线关系,其开口方向由风险偏好态度决定。采用门限面板模型、平滑转换面板模型和半参估计方法,对1999年到2012卑全国31个省面板数据进行实证检验,表明我国目前购房者主要是风险爱好型。     

地区竞争、土地供给结构与中国城市住房价格

为了分析地区竞争下地方政府间土地供给结构的策略互动及其对住房价格的影响,本文在归纳梳理中国土地供应法规特征的基础上,构建一个同时考虑居住用地需求和工业用地需求的两城市模型,探讨地方政府干预土地供给结构的动机及其经济后果,并基于2006—2015年城市面板数据对提出的理论假说进行检验。研究发现,在城市建设用地总量受约束的条件下,地方政府有激励以减少居住用地为代价提高工业用地供给,进行招商引资竞争;与市场起主导作用的情形相比,地方政府干预土地供给结构时,工业用地的供应量更高,居住用地的供应量则偏低,工业地价与居住用地的价格差异增大;地方政府对土地供给结构的干预,从供给和需求两方面共同推高了房价。此外,地方政府干预土地供给结构会影响到相邻地区的供地策略。研究对加快推进房地产市场长效机制改革、从供给侧解决高房价问题具有启示意义。     

城镇新移民住房支付能力和需求分析

近年来,在城镇稳定就业的新移民住房问题突显,能否妥善解决这部分人的安居问题,成为提升城镇化质量的关键。以城镇化过程中流入城市并稳定就业的新移民为研究对象,通过对城镇新移民住房支付能力和需求特征进行研究,为有针对性地制定这一群体的住房保障政策提供研究依据。     

政府与市场关系视角下住房问题治理对策研究

城市住房领域政府与市场关系的研究,对有效解决我国城市住房问题具有重要理论价值和政策含义。在多元经济学范式下分析政府与市场的关系,结合住房和住房市场的特性,探寻社会相互作用的两种基本规则：市场与政府解决住房问题的边界,构建了住房领域政府与市场关系的理论分析框架。在该框架下,探讨我国城市住房问题求解的思路及对策：完善住房市场、健全住房保障体系,发挥“第三方”的作用,促进我国住房市场健康持续发展。     

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.     

The impact of income,economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression

The rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in China. This article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income, economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China, based on the panel data of 35 major cities from 2002 to 2012. Compared with previous studies, we can more precisely and reasonably discuss the impact of these variables on different levels of housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of independent variables on housing prices is heterogeneous across quantiles. Specifically, the impact of income is positive and significant across quantiles, and the impact becomes greater at the 90th and 95th quantiles. Economic openness has a positive and significant effect at the 5th–80th quantiles, which support the Balassa–Samuelson effect, but it is insignificant at the 90th and 95th quantiles. The impact of interest rates is positive and significant at low quantiles, but the impact is negative and insignificant at high quantiles. Furthermore, we also find that the coefficients of interest rates at various quantiles are smaller. In addition, the population has a significant positive effect across quantiles. Finally, we provide important policy implications.     

流动性约束视角下我国房价财富效应与最优利率规则研究

后危机时代中国房价的波动引起了广泛关注,如何利用以货币政策为代表的宏观调控抑制高房价透支未来经济发展的程度,成为当前管理层高度关注的焦点。本文建立了新凯恩斯模型框架分析房价波动如何通过流动性约束影响消费,从而揭示了中央银行货币政策与房价的财富效应之间的关系,得出最优利率规则中房价的最优权重随预期通胀、产出缺口、房价和名义利率而变动的结论。通过实证分析本文进而认为,利率规则比货币供应量更能迅速调控房价的增长和居民消费的扩张。中国房价上涨的财富效应虽然比较明显,但流动性约束的作用机制需要一个过程才能显现,利率调控的效果也有一个量变到质变的过程,从而在理论上为中央银行制定应对房价的利率政策提供了一定启示。     

Factors influencing the user acceptance of digital home services

Digital home services provide multimedia entertainment, communication, and healthcare services to the public in order to make their lives more convenient. Many articles predict that the digital home service market will be huge and that many will take advantage of this situation. The purpose of this paper is to identify the future market for digital home services in South Korea by exploring the existing critical information and literature. This study proposes a conceptual model for assessing the adoption of digital home services, for which survey data from 600 heads of households in Korea were collected and used to test the proposed model. This paper also examines customer characteristics and their relationship with the acceptance of digital home services. First, the findings indicate that infra-service is mainly determined by age, region, job, family type, house type, and attitude towards adoption of new products. Second, home entertainment service is also significantly affected by gender, age, region, family type, family member, house type, and attitude towards adoption of new products. Third, home healthcare service was positively affected by gender, region, job, and usage period of high-speed internet. This study may provide companies with valuable guidelines for the implementation of digital home services.     

美国不同时期的住房补贴政策:实施效果的评价及启发

本文研究了美国住房政策70年的演变历程,着重分析了公共住房计划、购房补贴计划(235条款)、租房补贴计划(236条款)以及第8条款中的住房津贴计划、代金券计划等重要的住房补贴计划,对这些补贴计划的实施效果进行了评价,为我国研究住房政策提供有价值的参考.     

城市廉租房建设规模的对策分析:以江苏省为例

在江苏省13地市进行抽样调查的基础上,采用情景分析法,确定江苏省城市廉租房的建设规模及其情景模式.结果表明:在1%廉租房保障水平下,最低需要建设的廉租房面积约为250万m2,在5%廉租房保障水平下,最高需要建设的廉租房面积约为1883万m2,最高和最低保障面积相差约7.5倍,显然廉租房的建设要分步骤、分阶段实现,不能采取一刀切的一步到位方式.在此基础上对廉租房的来源及管理体制提出相应的发展对策,供有关决策部门参考.