What tenure security? The case for a tripartite view

In the face of advancing urban informality in the developing world there appears to be increasing consensus that tenure security is an important engine driving settlement development. This has, however, not led to a consensus about what tenure security exactly entails. In both theory and policy, the idea of tenure security for low-income settlement dwellers is encountered in three distinct forms: tenure security as perceived by dwellers, tenure security as a legal construct and de facto tenure security. The main argument of this paper is that much controversy that surrounds the debate arises precisely as a consequence of the indiscriminate use of these different kinds of tenure security. To address this problem, a tripartite conceptualization of tenure security that incorporates its three constituent components (perception, de jure, de facto) and clarifies their interrelations is presented.     

Phasing out the GSEs

We develop a new model of the mortgage market that emphasizes the role of the financial sector and the government. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. Both borrowers and intermediaries can default. The government provides both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance. Underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations and higher financial sector leverage. Mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries’ balance sheets. Foreclosure crises beget fiscal uncertainty, further disrupting the optimal allocation of risk in the economy. Increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee “crowds in” the private sector, reduces financial fragility, leads to fewer but safer mortgages, lowers house prices, and raises mortgage and risk-free interest rates. Due to a more robust financial sector and less fiscal uncertainty, consumption smoothing improves and foreclosure rates fall. While borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees, savers are substantially better off. While aggregate welfare increases, so does wealth inequality.     

公共住房项目PPP模式研究

公共住房建设是政府实现住房领域公平目标的重要手段,但由于其社会福利属性,面临着资金来源不足、后续发展乏力的困境。文章将普遍应用于国内外基础设施领域的PPP模式引入公共住房建设领域,对PPP模式的中国公共住房项目进行内部、外部条件分析,论证研究的可行性;在此基础上结合经济适用房与廉租房的不同特点探索具体操作形式;对保障高效合作的运行机制进行探讨,以推进城镇公共住房建设发展。     

经济适用房的历史地位与改革方向

经济适用房曾被赋予了我国住房供应体系的主体的地位.五年多来,经济适应房建设取得了巨大的成效,也暴露出了严重的缺陷.本文从改革与发展两个角度研究了经济适用房的发展历程与成就,探讨了其内在缺陷,论证了在我国中低价位的商品房市场正在形成,并且在两年左右的时间内,低价商品房市场将与经济适用房市场现实地形成竞争.在此基础上,本文认为经济适用房作为我国住房体制改革的阶段性措施已初步完成了它的历史使命.随着客观条件的变化,经济适用房建设应逐步让位于普通的商品房市场.     

大都市流动青年的住房现状及对策研究

大都市是我国流动人口主要的流入地区,大都市经济的迅速发展为流动人口提供了很多的机会,但另一方面,流动人口的住房还存在诸多问题。以发展型社会政策和社会排斥理论为视角,通过对我国大城市流动青年住房的现状进行分析,发现流动青年具有受教育水平高、农业户籍流动青年占流动青年群体的多数、流动之前生活条件处于中等水平以及正规就业的特点,同时在位房需求上,他们呈现出购房能力差、社区融入程度低以及主观评价满意度中等水平的特点。通过对城市户籍和农村户籍流动青年的比较分析发现,流动青年内部存在一定程度的分化。在借鉴已有研究的基础上,试图通过发展型社会政策以及社会支持理论的视角为大城市流动青年住房问题的解决进行一定的思考与探索。     

住房政策的局限性:政策的初衷与实施效果的背离

在房价上涨过快的背景下,基于舆论的压力,政府常常会出台一些旨在稳定房价、解决住房短缺问题的政策,然而有些政策的实施效果却常常背离政策的初衷.回顾了美国40年代实施的房租管制,并分析了中国正在实施的提高税收和经济适用房政策,发现这些政策的实施效果大都适得其反,不仅没有达到预期的目标,反而使得住房问题恶化.     

Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation

This paper studies demand substitution in the context of US cities. Demand substitution occurs when individuals on the margin between certain city pairs affect demand patterns in the aggregate, causing certain cities to be better substitutes than others. Using a discrete model of city choice, I derive two predictions for migration flows and test them empirically using city-to-city migration data from the US Census. I show that cities which are similar on a variety of observable measures have higher levels of gross migration flows in the steady state and higher net migration flows in response to labor demand shocks. Finally, I propose pairwise correlation in metropolitan home prices as a price-based measure of substitutability and show that it contains substantial predictive power for migration flows relative to observable similarity.