公积金制度对上海住房市场发展的影响研究

为研究住房公积金制度在上海住房市场发展过程中的作用,笔者通过运用状态空间模型与卡尔曼滤波解法的实证分析认为,住房公积金制度对上海市住房市场的量价都有很大的影响。在有力提高了居民住房消费能力的同时,也是助推房价泡沫化的一个重要因素,这种助推力主要源于政府拆迁。因此目前的房地产调控政策应该进行微调,以充分发挥公积金制度的积极作用和抑制其不利影响,进一步完善我国的住房保障体系。     

经济适用房住户满意度及其影响因素分析——基于北京市1184位住户的调查

中国住房制度自1998年改革以来,经济适用房在保障中低收入家庭基本住房需求的同时,也暴露出了严重的缺陷。本文在对2007年北京市经济适用房住户调查数据进行描述的基础上,利用多元排序Probit模型对影响经济适用房住户居住和生活满意度的主要因素进行了实证检验。结论显示不同群体的住房意向各不相同,由此揭示出政府建立定期住房普查制度,及时掌握居民住房需求并以此为基础制定住房政策的必要性。分析结果显示经济适用房选址布局不当加剧了职住分离和居住区的社会阶层分隔,并使得经济适用房政策更像是政府激励居民迁出市中心的一种工具。     

浅谈我国房地产政策——以房价的过快上涨所引发的思考

我国近些年来经济突飞猛进的发展,其背后房地产对CDP的拉动功不可没,特别在金融危机中,大幅拉动内需,成为我国实体经济的支柱产业,但随着需求增大,房价节节攀升,购房困难成为百姓实现小康生活的头号难题。本文就房价过高产生的原因,以及如何看待我国的房地产政策谈了几点看法,并针对高房价提出了几点对策建议。     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

保险机构助力“以房养老”案例研究

近年来,各类金融机构纷纷布局养老金融,市场上的养老金融产品层出不穷。本文以幸福人寿“房来宝”老年人住房反向抵押养老保险为例,运用案例研究法与鱼骨分析法探讨影响保险机构助力“以房养老”的积极因素与消极因素。研究发现,即便需求端与供给端在宏微观层面均存在促进产品成交的因素,但产品推广面临的阻碍因素对客户的购买行为影响更大,导致6年试点以来全国保单销量不佳。最后,基于研究结论提出保险机构开展住房反向抵押养老保险业务助力以房养老的对策。     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

我国居民住房消费分层与住房结构调整研究

在市场经济条件下,住房消费的层次性是由居民个人可支配收入或住房支付能力决定的,住房供给的层次性也应该适应需求的层次性。本文分析了居民住房消费分层影响因素、需求与供应结构失衡的原因,提出住房分层消费与结构调整的对策与建议。     

Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst

This paper extends the existing literature on managing house price risk. While previous work finds that a hedger would have reduced a large amount of variance in housing returns in Las Vegas, Nevada using Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contracts, we show that neither static nor dynamic strategies would have maintained an effective hedge during the significant decline in housing prices. The inability to hedge house price risk using CME futures contracts ultimately calls into question the long-term viability of housing futures.     

A social-media-based approach to assessing the effectiveness of equitable housing policy in mitigating education accessibility induced social inequalities in Shanghai,China

Social inequalities induced by education accessibility are widespread and concern land use policy makers globally. Yet much of existing research heavily emphasizes on uncovering the spatial patterns of housing price in relation to education resources. This paper aims to renew our understanding of this classical topic by bringing the importance of temporal and institutional dynamics to the fore. Specifically, this research presents a detailed examination of the relationship between school quality and housing rental dynamics under the intervention of equitable housing policy, with special reference to Shanghai, the most developed megacity in China, also one of the first Chinese cities granting equal rights for renters to access schools within the catchment area. Based on time-series housing rental data collected from social media, the t-test discovers that school quality has a significant impact on housing rental prices after the introduction of this new housing policy. Moreover, housing rental prices within high-quality school districts are significantly higher than those within ordinary school districts. The hedonic model and variance partitioning further confirm that school quality is capitalized into housing rental prices, and its relative contribution varies with temporal periods. More specifically, how the relative contribution of school quality changes over time is consistent with the schedule of primary school enrollment and sensitive to policy intervention. The difference in difference model foregrounds that the equitable housing policy does result in rental prices hike in high-quality school districts, i.e., a 13.5 % rental premium of housings within high-quality school districts compared with those within ordinary ones. We conclude that the equitable housing policy fails to achieve the expected goal and propose alternative suggestions for mitigating social inequalities in education accessibility. This study demonstrates a novel methodological framework for evaluating the social consequence of equitable housing policy based on social media data. It unravels how housing rental changes with school district division and the capitalization effect of school quality in housing rental prices.     

The role of economic structural factors in determining pandemic mortality rates: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in France

Among the majority of research on individual factors leading to coronavirus mortality, age has been identified as a dominant factor. Health and other individual factors including gender, comorbidity, ethnicity and obesity have also been identified by other studies. In contrast, we examine the role of economic structural factors on COVID-19 mortality rates. Particularly, focusing on a densely populated region of France, we document evidence that higher economic “precariousness indicators” such as unemployment and poverty rates, lack of formal education and housing are important factors in determining COVID-19 mortality rates. Our study will help inform policy makers regarding the role of economic factors in managing pandemics.