链路预测视角下京津冀现代制造业产业转移路径研究

产业转移是经济发展到一定程度的必然趋势。在我国经济新常态下,提出了通过产业转移提升产业结构、消除区域间经济发展不平衡的命题。传统产业转移理论主要利用局部数据和还原论研究方法,而区域产业转移机理和路径研究具有高度非线性系统特征,因而适用性不佳。因此,基于投入-产出数据构建区域产业复杂网络,利用网络特征值反映产业部门在价值链上的影响力和脆弱性,并根据链路预测理论对京津冀地区现代制造业产业转移路径进行分析。仿真结果表明,适合京津冀协同发展的产业转移路径包括优化配置路径、产业融合路径和产能淘汰路径。     

产业联系与北京优势产业及其演变

根据经济基础理论,城市经济增长源于城市外部需求.一个城市的比较优势体现在服务于外部市场的产业中.论文基于北京市投入-产出表,依据产业净流出,分析了北京市产业的比较优势及其变化.过去15年来,北京的劳动密集型和原料型制造业的优势逐渐丧失,以电子通信设备、化学工业和机械设备制造业为代表的资本和技术密集型产业正成为优势产业;服务业中,传统服务业从20世纪80年代的优势地位退居劣势地位,取而代之的是知识密集型的生产者服务业,如金融业、软件和计算机服务业、信息传输服务业、广告业、房地产开发业、商务服务、科技交流和推广服务业等.产业联系是北京产业比较优势的显著影响因素,资本、知识和技术是北京市产业比较优势的投入支撑.     

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES

On the basis of a set of Input-Output tables we computed the European Net Product Possibility Frontier (NPPF) for the years from 1995 to 2011. During this period, several barriers to trade have been removed, allowing higher levels of trade and regional integration. Subsequently, we propose a method to check whether the prediction to be derived from Comparative Advantages (CAs) theory, namely, a specialization pattern that allows to reach the NPPF, is verified. The results suggest that CAs were not exploited well during the period considered and no positive trend emerged. The implication of our results is that there is ample scope for a coordinated policy aimed at improving allocation of resources. Further research on this topic seems to be necessary.     

中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响——基于投入—产出法的国际比较研究

本文采用投入—产出法并基于截面数据,对中国和13个OECD经济体的生产性服务业发展水平、部门结构及其影响进行了比较研究。结果发现:与OECD经济体相比,中国国民经济及其三次产业中的物质性投入消耗相对较大,而服务性投入(即生产性服务)消耗相对较小;大多数OECD经济体生产性服务的将近70%都投入到了服务业自身,而中国生产性服务的一半以上则投入到了第二产业;中国与OECD经济体的服务业及其分部门的影响力系数都较小,但后者的感应力系数高于中国,表明中国服务业的增长不仅不能对国民经济产生应有的带动作用,其本身受其他部门的需求拉动作用也不大。中国生产性服务业发展的差距不只是由经济发展阶段决定的,而是在很大程度上缘于社会诚信、体制机制和政策规制的约束。因此,打破市场垄断、理顺市场机制、规范市场运行秩序和政府行为以及打造诚信经济,应该成为政策制订的着力点。     

市场竞争度、非利息业务对商业银行效率的影响研究

研究目标：分析市场竞争度、非利息业务对商业银行效率的影响。研究方法：本文主要使用了SFA和动态面板GMM方法进行研究。研究发现：市场竞争度与银行利润效率和成本效率负相关，非利息业务与利润效率正相关，对成本效率影响并不显著；对于国有银行和股份制银行，手续费及佣金业务与利润效率和成本效率正相关，交易性业务与成本效率负相关；对于地方性银行，交易性业务与利润效率正相关，其余影响并不显著；随着竞争度的提升，非利息业务对银行效率的影响更趋向于负面。研究创新：研究分类非利息业务对各类银行效率的不同影响，考察了随着市场竞争度的变化，这种影响有何改变。研究价值：为监管者和商业银行在决策时提供参考。     

中国参与跨国公司垂直专业化的地位测算

本文基于来自中国的数据,改进了传统的测算垂直专业化的指标,将FDI因素引入指标设计中,建立了从投入产出系数矩阵中分离跨国公司生产和进口的中间投入品的方法,测算了FDI对一国参与垂直专业化的影响。文章结论是:中国在跨国公司价值链上所处的分工地位是为其提供附加值较低的中间投入品和最终品的中低端垂直专业化地位;FDI对我国参与由跨国公司主导的垂直专业化的影响十分显著。     

基于最小生成树理论的空间结构分解模型

现有空间结构分解模型存在测算结果不唯一及不满足传递性两大问题。本文提出了一种基于最小生成树理论的空间结构分解模型,在保证多个地区间比较传递性的同时,减小了结构分解模型测算结果不唯一性对模型应用的影响。基于我国地区投入产出表,本文以ICT产业区位商比较的五变量结构分解为例,示范了如何定义帕式—拉式偏离指数(PLS),建立了基于PLS指数的最小生成树,并将结论应用于空间结构分解,对该模型的有效性进行了验证。     

中美能源消费增长的驱动因素比较研究

将投入产出结构分解法和加权夏普雷法相结合,运用1992和2007年的投入产出表比较研究中美能源消费增长的驱动因素,结果表明:(1)国内最终需求的成长、中间需求的成长和出口的成长均是两国的能源消费增长的正向驱动因素,中国的正向驱动效果强于美国;(2)技术进步和进口替代均是负向驱动因素,中国的负向驱动效果弱于美国;(3)国内最终需求的结构变化、出口的结构变化是美国能源消费增长的负向驱动因素,在中国却为正向驱动因素。     

我国居民消费结构变动对产业结构优化影响的投入产出分析

消费结构是产业结构最重要的制约因素,消费结构的优化能促进产业结构的优化升级。本文通过分析居民消费结构的变动趋势及对产业结构优化的影响,利用2002年中国投入产出表测度居民消费对三次产业的拉动作用,进一步阐明合理的居民消费结构决定产业结构的优化。     

Decomposition analysis of the telecommunications sector in Indonesia: What does the cellular era shed light on?

Indonesia is currently enjoying rapid development in the telecommunications sector despite the economy having been heavily dependent for almost four decades on the two largest sectors: the manufacturing industry and trade. The telecommunications sector has played an important role in stimulating economic growth in the country during the last few years, with an annual growth rate higher than that of other sectors. This contribution is supported to a great extent by the rapid diffusion of telephony, in particular cellular telephony, as the number of subscribers increased from just 2.1 million in 1999 to 170 million in 2011. Previous studies investigating the impact of the telecommunications sector on the economy aggregate the impact of the sectors on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) without further scrutiny of what sources of growth telecommunications has contributed. Hence, an interesting question arises as to whether the achievement of cellular diffusion is also followed by structural change in the telecommunications sector. That said, this study aims to decompose the output of telecommunications into several sources of growth: domestic final demand, export effect, import substitution effect and technological coefficient effect. A particular interest in this study is to compare the source of growth concerning domestic final demand and the technological coefficient effect. The main tool for analysis in this study is the Input–Output (IO) method, while the time series of the investigation covers the period 1975–2008, allowing comparison of structural changes in the telecommunications sector between the pre- and post-cellular eras. The study found that the coefficient multiplier of the telecommunications sector, which was approximately 1.8 during the 1980s, had decreased to only 1.3 by the end of 2008. Consequently, the final demand from the telecommunications sector contributed less to economic output in the late 2000s compared to the impact in the 1980. Moreover, the cellular era that started in the early 2000s also brought about a trend of changes in telecommunications output. While final demand remains very dominant, the technological coefficient effect has diminished as the source of telecommunications output. This finding indicates a lower ability of the telecommunications sector to build an inter-industry relationship with other sectors. A possible explanation for this result is the cellular uses which are much less related to business activities than that of fixed telephony dating back to the 1970s in Indonesia.