The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

我国农村养老保险制度创新的若干思路

农村养老保险制度的创新对于提高农民生活水平,拉动农村需求,构建城乡和谐社会具有重大意义。本文提出和探讨农村养老保险制度创新的原则和目标、实施机制以及支持措施。     

On Rothschild–Stiglitz as Competitive Pooling

Dubey and Geanakoplos (Q J Econ 117:1529–1570, 2002) have developed a theory of competitive pooling, which incorporates adverse selection and signaling into general equilibrium. By recasting the Rothschild–Stiglitz model of insurance in this framework, they find that a separating equilibrium always exists and is unique. We prove that their uniqueness result is not a consequence of the framework, but rather of their definition of refined equilibria. When other types of perturbations are used, the model allows for many pooling allocations to be supported as such: in particular, this is the case for pooling allocations that Pareto dominate the separating equilibrium.     

论险种创新的法律保障

险种创新是保险企业增强自身竞争力、开拓市场份额的有效途径。对险种创新进行法律保障,是防止恶意搭便车行为,有效激励、积极引导险种创新,防范险种创新中道德风险,减少新险种中保险合同不公平问题,贯彻险种创新的合法性原则的需要,也是法律保障的强制有效性使然。对险种创新进行法律规制时,应坚持利益平衡论,即险种创新者利益与社会公共利益的平衡、保险人利益与投保人利益之间的平衡。     

福建省华侨农场养老保险改革评析

福建省在政策安排上对华侨农场养老保险改革有所优待,并体现了灵活务实、以人为本等政策特点。政策颁布后,经上级部门的重视和推动,以及各级政府的财政支持,如今福建省华侨农场职工已基本纳入省级统筹。当然,资金紧缺、层次较低、发展不平衡等后续问题仍然存在,需要进一步解决。     

Generalized Life Insurance: Ruin Probabilities

We study ruin probabilities for generalized life insurance programs. These programs include among others whole life and long term care contracts. Clearly, in such programs the claims in successive years are dependent, hence the structure of our problem is different from that of ruin probabilities in general insurance where claims over time are independent. First, we develop algorithms calculating the ruin probabilities for life and LTC insurance programs. Further, upper and lower bounds for these probabilities are derived. These new bounds take into account the joint distribution of claims over time.     

长期护理保险在中国的选择——基于制度经济学的分析

为了解决人口老龄化背景下的老年护理问题,德国、日本先后于1995年1月1日、2000年4月1日启动长期护理保险制度。我国在1999年也已经进入老龄化国家行列,老龄化并呈加速趋势。我国农村家庭养老看护功能日益削弱、城镇养老机构数量不足、新型居家养老模式的资金来源不足。有必要借鉴德国、日本长期护理保险制度,采取城市的居家养老护理保险与农村的老年护理救助模式。基于制度经济学的角度,从价值支持、意识形态支持、成本支持与路径支持上论证了该制度的可行性。     

农户对农业保险支付意愿的测算及其影响因素的分析——以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例

本文以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例,采用CVM方法获取调查数据,并利用PCE模型分析得出了影响农户对烟叶保险支付意愿的主要因素包括:对烟叶保险重要性的认知程度、自然灾害造成的烟叶生产的平均损失金额、农户年龄和年家庭纯收入。同时,本文还测算出了保额为每亩100元时,农户对烟叶保险的支付意愿平均值为6.43元/亩。这些结论为解决农业保险保费筹集问题提供了思路。     

Which firms engage small, foreign, or state banks? And who goes Islamic? Evidence from Turkey

We study a representative dataset from Turkey that identifies firm–bank connections. Banks in Turkey differ not only in size and nationality, but also in ownership and orientation (non-Islamic versus Islamic)—resulting in at least six distinct bank types. We estimate a multinomial logit of the choice by the firm of bank type. We document a strong correspondence between bank type and firm characteristics that is not always the same as has been documented so far for US datasets. For example, small firms engage large rather than small banks. Young, large, multiple-bank, and industry-diversified firms, that are located in or close to Istanbul, team up with foreign banks. Islamic banks mainly deal with young, multiple-bank, industry-focused and transparent firms.