The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Internal Finance and Corporate Investment

This paper examines Pecking Order/Free Cash Flow behavior in small ($25–$50 million), medium ($100–250 million), and large ($1000 million and over) firms. The purpose is to proffer an explanation for the important role of cash flow on the investment expenditure of firms that is more complete than the commonly given accounts. The Pecking order theory (PO) emphasizes the value‐enhancing influence of cash flow, while the free cash flow hypothesis (FCF) underscores its value‐destroying effect. Using the vector error correction model, we find that although the overall behavior of small firms support the pecking order theory, the cash flow of these firms does not have any causal effect on their investment. We further find evidence of free cash flow theory in large firms.     

证券市场在经济增长中的作用

用实证和时间序列的方法研究了我国证券市场发展和经济增长之间的关系,提出了证券市场把储蓄转化成投资,是证券市场促进经济增长的主要作用。     

2003年中国经济形势分析与2004年预测

中国经济2003年取得了骄人的成绩,2004年将步入协调高速发展的轨道。     

外商对华投资市场战略差异的实证分析

通过探讨美国、日本、韩国、欧盟、新加坡等国家及中国港台地区在华投资市场战略差异的影响因素，运用实证研究的方法验证经典的国际投资理论是否能够解释外资在中国投资的现实。研究发现，长期占领中国市场是影响美国和欧洲在华投资的最重要因素，美欧与中国制造业工资成本之间的差异与其在华投资呈现负相关性。因此，与投资相关的研发和配套投资的本土化战略都具有长期性和战略性。     

教育偏好与教育投资行为分析

偏好是西方经济学消费理论的概念。教育偏好是对教育的需求,教育投资行为是对教育的投资也就是接受教育的行为。由于受到个人资本和社会资本的作用,教育偏好和教育投资行为之间呈现“增强”趋势。“增强趋势”和教育偏好的稳定性的基础上,教育的边际效用随时间的变化而增加,并且影响着教育需求曲线的弹性。     

Empirical Analysis on Practice of Venture Investment in China

Organizational policy innovation in venture investment is an important measure to prompt making venture capital. This paper begins with introducing limited partnership, corporation and trust funds which are organizations suitable for venture investment, and then combines detailed case at home to analyze, reflect the develooment situation of venture investment in China.     

Deterioration of Firm Balance Sheet and Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel Data on Thai Firms*

Using firm‐level data, the present paper investigates whether, and to what extent, firm balance sheet problems mattered for investment over the period 1992–2002. Various categories of firms are compared, with firms grouped according to their a priori degree of liquidity constraint. Firms are also divided into pre‐crisis and post‐crisis periods to examine the impact of the financial crisis on firms’ investments. The results support the existence of the balance sheet channel and suggest that Thai firms faced greater liquidity constraints following the financial crisis. Small firms and non‐bond‐issuing firms are found to have been more adversely affected by the crisis than large firms and bond‐issuing firms.     

工程结构基于震害损失的动态投资优化

建立了工程结构投资与地震灾害损失之间的一般关系,给出了工程动态投资的评价方法.最后通过一个算例对工程结构投资优化方法进行说明.     

马克思社会再生产理论对我国宏观调控的启示

我国投资问题一直受到学术界的高度关注。通过运用马克思社会再生产理论,建立了投资率理论模型,系统地揭示了影响投资率大小的因素,以及这些因素对投资率的影响态势,并利用中国和美国的相关数据,比较分析了影响中美两国投资率高低的主要因素。最后结合实际,提出解决中国投资率过高的政策取向:降低转移不变资本占国民收入的比例及其增长速度,提高产业集中度以减少中间投入的比例,提高劳动者报酬占国民收入的比例,调整产业结构以降低生产资料生产部门的固定资产消耗的比例,以及转变政府职能。