基于状态空间模型的中国房价变动的影响因素研究

本文选择1999至2009年的中国房屋销售价格指数、GDP、货币供应量M2和人均可支配收入的季度数据作为研究样本,通过建立状态空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波对其估计和分析,分别得到了以上因素对房价影响力的动态特性。由此得出的结论主要包括：人均可支配收入和货币供应量是长期内影响房价的两个主要因素,前者对房价的影响稳定而后者的影响波动较大,此外GDP是另一个对房价影响稳定但影响力稍弱的因素;在2009年中国总体房价快速上涨的过程中,货币供应量对房价的影响强度明显超过了其他两个因素。     

Willingness to pay for brands: a cross‐region,cross‐category analysis

Using survey data collected in multiple locations (California and Texas in the United States and Revohot in Israel), we quantify category‐ and location‐specific variations of consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for brand products after controlling for consumer characteristics. We find that consumers have a similar qualitative assessment of brand value in different product categories across different locations. That is, consumers have a stronger preference and higher WTP for brands in consumer electronics, followed by clothing and then processed food, and the lowest in fresh produce. Furthermore, we simulate price premiums and market shares of brands relative to generic products in different categories. Simulation results suggest that brands in fresh produce have the highest price premium but lowest market share. Despite the similarities, the magnitude of WTP for brands as well as the simulated price premium and the corresponding market share in the same product category are location variant. The similarities and dissimilarities suggest validity of having global brand strategies adapted to local conditions, that is, the so‐called “thinking globally and acting locally” strategy.     

跨国公司与东道国当地企业的合作方式及其经济内涵

跨国公司与东道国当地企业的合作存在五种形式：一是与供给商的合作；二是与客户的合作；三是与竞争者的合作；四是与技术伙伴的合作；五是具有外溢效应的合作。采用何种形式的合作，取决于TNC要实现的目标以及SME的合作能力；为建立与TNC更加紧密的合作关系，在东道国政府制定相关鼓励政策的同时。SME还应努力提高人员素质和技术水平，以增强自身的合作能力。     

Determining fair values of performance‐vested and forfeiture‐embedded employee stock options

This study provides a new approach to determine the fair value of ESOs by extending the performance‐vested option pricing model. The model developed in this study takes both vesting period and forfeiture rate into consideration to capture characteristics of ESOs. Empirical and sensitivity analyses give evidence for the importance of these two elements. Empirical results also support that the derived model can be employed to increase the accuracy of ESOs’ fair value.     

Dividends,research and development expenditures,and the value relevance of book value for UK loss-making firms

We extend prior research on the value relevance of accounting information for loss-making firms by allowing the coefficient of book value to vary across three distinct set of loss-making firm observations in our valuation model. Our key findings are, first, that book value is a less important determinant of equity value for either high R&D-intensive firms or dividend-paying firms, relative to firms with low R&D-intensity and zero dividends. Prior literature suggests that book value is a strong indicator of firm value for loss-making firms. This reasoning stems from book value's role as: (i) a proxy for the value of the possibility of abandoning or adapting the firms' net assets; and/or (ii) a proxy for expected future normal earnings. Our work suggests that this prior literature does not fully capture the valuation role of book value for loss-making firms. Second, we also find that dividends are value relevant, but generally only when the valuation role of book value is contextualised by allowing its coefficient to vary across high R&D-intensive firms, and dividend-paying, loss-making firms.     

The Strategy of foreign-invested manufacturing enterprises in China: Export-orientated and market-orientated FDI revisited

This paper examines export-orientated and market-orientated foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's manufacturing industry. Based on Fung's () survey estimation of China's market-orientated FDI in 1992 and China's Third National Industrial Census in 1995, we quantify the proportion of market-orientated FDI in China 1992–2002. By combining and verifying various data sources, our estimation shows that market-orientated FDI accounts for the majority of China's total inward FDI in manufacturing industry and has grown faster than export-orientated FDI over the period 1992–2002. Our industry level analysis suggests that Overseas Chinese investors are more export-orientated than Western investors. The study suggests that many inward investors follow a dual market strategy. The coexistence of export-orientated and Chinese domestic market-orientated FDI is a reflection of the flexibility of MNEs to adjust and adapt ownership attributes to the local market context. The study offers insights into the evolutionary development path taken by foreign-invested manufacturing enterprises in China.     

DO INSIDERS PRACTICE WHAT THEY PREACH? INFORMED OPTION EXERCISES AROUND MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

We examine executive stock option exercises around a sample of merger and acquisition announcements between 1996 and 2006, focusing on a subset we identify as potentially informed. For stock‐financed acquisitions, we find a surge in informed exercises by acquirer insiders in the year leading up to the acquisition announcement, but target insiders display no similar increase. We find the market reaction upon the announcement for acquirers is negatively related to extreme early exercises and find some evidence of long‐run underperformance. Overall, our evidence indicates that insiders knowingly bid for firms when they personally believe their own firm is overvalued.     

Does accounting conservatism pay?

We investigate whether or not there is a link between conservative accounting practices and the sensitivity of executive pay to accounting performance. Using several accrual‐based measures of accounting conservatism as well as alternative measures of accounting performance, we estimate an econometric model of CEO compensation that incorporates the interaction of accounting conservatism and accounting performance. Consistent with optimal contracting theory, we find that the sensitivity of executive pay to accounting performance is higher for firms that report conservative accounting earnings. These results support the hypothesis that accounting conservatism, by limiting earnings management opportunities and improving the reliability of accounting performance measures, allows firms to formulate contracts that tie executive compensation more closely to accounting performance.     

Incentives and the Sorting of Altruistic Agents into Street‐Level Bureaucracies*

Many street‐level bureaucrats have the dual task of helping some clients, while sanctioning others. We develop a model of a street‐level bureaucracy, and we study the implications of its personnel policy on the self‐selection and allocation decisions of agents who differ in altruism towards clients. When bureaucrats are paid flat wages, they do not sanction, and the most altruistic types sort into bureaucracy. Pay‐for‐performance induces some bureaucrats to sanction, but it necessitates an increase in compensation, which can result in sorting from the top and bottom of the altruism distribution. We also explain why street‐level bureaucrats often experience an overload of clients.     

Big Five Audits and Accounting Fraud*

We examine the association between Big Five audits and the incidence of accounting frauds allegedly committed by U.S. public companies between 1981 and 2001. Many commentators argue that the prominent financial reporting failures that led to major corporate governance reforms cast serious doubt on whether the large public accounting firms continue to supply relatively high‐quality audits, especially in recent years. However, in unmatched and matched samples, we provide strong, robust evidence that fraudulent financial reporting becomes less likely with the presence of a Big Five auditor. Importantly, time‐series tests suggest that the Big Five are consistently associated with a lower incidence of fraudulent accounting, including in the last five years of our sample period when the number of frauds soared. Moreover, we find evidence implying that these relations are causal rather than an artifact of endogeneity in auditor choice.