The impact of non-neutral federal regulatory policy on competition

We present a duopoly competition model to illustrate how the simultaneous incorporation of two US federal regulatory programs negatively affected telecommunications competition during the past decade. Our model shows that the simultaneous implementation of the Universal Service Fund policy that grants subsidies to incumbent telecommunications providers serving in high-cost areas, and the carrier of last resort policy that mandates incumbents to provide service in under-served geographic areas, deters competitive entry in low-cost markets and thereby runs counter to the objectives for which the policies were intended. This model provides a theoretical explanation of a failure of federal policy.     

进入规制国别差异中的腐败原因——一个基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

本文讨论了腐败和进入规制强度的具体内容和量化测度方法,建立了大容量的跨国面板数据,利用统计模型验证了腐败是进入规制强度的Granger原因。在此基础上,构建了部分年份的分位数回归模型,在控制了其他变量的前提下具体测算了腐败对进入规制强度的边际效应,从时间、指标和分布几个方面详细分析了这一效应的细部特征,并对研究结论的政策含义进行了简要说明。     

When do stock analysts find bond rating changes informative?

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have considerable privileged access to corporate management and are therefore a potentially important source of information to the equity market. We study how stock analysts incorporate bond ratings in their earnings forecasts. We develop an economic framework to explain why equity analysts might look to CRAs as an information source, especially after Regulation Fair Disclosure. Using this framework, we characterize the association between ratings changes and earnings forecast revisions surrounding these changes. We examine whether the extent to which equity analysts glean information from ratings changes is related to the extent and importance of information conveyed in the ratings change and analysts’ information uncertainty. We find that characteristics we examine are strongly related to stock analysts’ use of information in rating downgrades.     

中国房地产市场价格泡沫与空间传染效应

本文使用对数周期性幂律(Log Period Power Law, LPPL)模型对房地产市场价格泡沫进行测度,运用空间计量模型对我国房地产市场价格泡沫和空间传染效应进行研究。LPPL模型认为由价格泡沫产生并最终破裂的金融市场与地震系统具有很多相似之处,即金融资产的价格呈周期性变化规律,价格持续上涨到临界状态直至反转。本文采用2010年6月至2017年11月间我国100个城市的房地产市场数据对各城市房地产价格泡沫进行测度和物理/经济空间传染效应研究。研究发现,LPPL模型能够对我国100个城市房地产价格泡沫进行甄别且主要存在两种泡沫状态:正向泡沫(房价持续上升)和反转泡沫(房价整体下降却存在反转点)。各个城市(地区)房地产价格具有较强的空间传染性;存在正向泡沫区域的空间传染性相较反转泡沫区域更为明显,在考虑经济空间测度而不是物理空间测度的情况下,各城市间的空间传染性更强。与现有文献不同,我们发现反转泡沫区域的新房价格指数特别是二手房价格指数的上升对周边城市的房地产价格指数存在强烈的正向推高影响。最后,本文发现城市的房地产调控政策在一定程度上抑制了房价传统影响(比如信贷、新房、二手房价等)因素的推高影响,但各城市房地产价格之间的联动变化特征应该引起监管部门的注意。     

The roles of book‐tax conformity and tax enforcement in regulating tax reporting behaviour following International Financial Reporting Standards adoption

This study investigates whether increasing the level of tax enforcement can potentially offset the primary cost of a reduction in the level of book‐tax conformity (BTC) following International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption – increased tax avoidance. We find that after the decrease in BTC and the concomitant increase in tax enforcement that followed IFRS adoption in Israel, tax avoidance declined significantly. Our results imply that one of the primary costs of reducing BTC can be avoided. Moreover, the results suggest that rather than one strict regulatory approach to deal with reporting manipulations, a combination of trust and control is more effective and less radical.     

Taxes and subsidies to change eating habits when information is not enough: an application to fish consumption

A calibrated model is used to determine the welfare impacts of various regulatory instruments for improving health. The results of a lab experiment are integrated in a partial equilibrium model representing demands for two kinds of fish, one with higher nutritional benefits (canned sardines) and one with higher contamination risks (canned tuna) in France. In the laboratory, information about health effects leads to a statistically significant decrease (increase) in the willingness to pay for tuna (sardines). Simulations with the laboratory results show that, for most cases, a per-unit tax on tuna and a per-unit subsidy on sardines without any information revealed to consumers lead to the highest welfare, because both the tax and subsidy directly internalize health characteristics. The information policy combined with a per-unit tax on tuna and a per-unit subsidy on sardines is socially profitable only if a large proportion of consumers (greater than 95%) receives health information.      

Electricity sector reform in developing countries: an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization,competition and regulation

Electricity sectors in both developed and developing countries have been subject to restructuring to introduce private capital and increase competition. Although the effects of such reforms in a number of the developed economies are now well documented, the experience of developing countries is much less well researched. This paper provides an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization, competition and regulation on the performance of the electricity generation industry using panel data for 36 developing and transitional countries, over the period 1985–2003. The study identifies the impact of these reforms on generating capacity, electricity generated, labor productivity in the generating sector and capacity utilization. The main conclusions are that on their own privatization and regulation (PR) do not lead to obvious gains in economic performance, though there are some positive interaction effects. By contrast, introducing competition does seem to be effective in stimulating performance improvements.      

Regulating a risk-averse firm under incomplete information

We examine the optimal regulatory policy for a risk-averse firm when the firm is imperfectly informed about its efficiency parameter for a project at the time of contracting. The firm’s risk aversion shifts the optimal regulatory policy from a fixed-price contract to a cost-plus contract. The optimal regulatory policy entails undereffort by an inefficient firm as in Laffont and Tirole (J Polit Econ 94(3):614–641, 1986) and the effort distortion increases as the firm becomes more risk-averse. Further, the regulator benefits from sequential contracting with the firm where the firm chooses contract terms gradually as it acquires information, albeit the benefit diminishes as the firm becomes more risk-averse.      

我国宏观调控效果的弱化及其治理

"加大宏观调控,预防经济过热",是我国目前宏观经济的基本政策取向.但在近年来我国宏观调控政策执行过程中,遇到了宏观调控效果弱化的问题.针对这个现象,笔者认为其根源在于我国现行制度下投资型经济增长方式与宏观调控内生的矛盾,而中央对地方政绩单一指标考核形成的委托--代理关系,以及中央和地方政府财权、事权不统一更加剧了这一矛盾.此外,中央在制定宏观调控政策时忽视民众预期,也在一定程度上削弱了宏观调控效果.     

论环境规制对企业国际竞争力的影响及传导机制

环境规制对企业国际竞争力的影响日益成为制约环境规制目标实现的重要因素。本文针对环境规制的国际贸易影响,以出口制造型企业为例,以此说明环境规制的制定与实施除应关注环境效果外,还应更多地关注企业对环境规制的反应,后者恰是决定环境规制目标能否实现的关键制约因素。