金融开放外源性风险对中国经济金融稳定与安全的影响分析

本文在构建金融开放外源性风险体系基础上,应用“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法对中国、东南亚和拉美等共26个国家的金融开放的外源性风险及其影响进行了分析,所得结果与26个国家的金融开放的实际十分吻合.研究表明“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法在监测和分析发展中国家金融开放外源性风险产生的影响具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,为提高金融开放监管效率,提供了相应的方法依据.     

境外股指期货市场监管体制对比研究

2010年我国正式推出股指期货。为了进一步完善我国股指期货监管体制,促进股指期货市场的发展,笔者通过对美国、英国及我国香港地区股指期货市场监管体系的对比分析,归纳总结了这些国家（地区）在股指期货发展中的共同点和经验教训,并对我国股指期货监管体制的建设提出了建议。     

Hong Kong Residents' Adoption of Risk Reduction Strategies in Leisure Travel

For decades risk has been identified as a major concern for traveling. Although some recent studies focused on studying consumers' perceived travel risks, only a few prior studies literally discussed consumers' risk reduction strategies in the context of travel-related services. To fill this gap, this study aims to investigate the travel-related risk reduction strategies that Hong Kong residents adopt to strengthen their confidence during leisure travel. This study also explores if travelers of different travel-related and sociodemographic characteristics adopt different risk reduction strategies. Among different risk reduction strategies—“purchase travel insurance,” “bring extra cash,” and “search for latest information about the destination”—are the ones which Hong Kong residents are likely to adopt when they travel for leisure. Results revealed that travel-related and sociodemographic characteristics influenced travelers' likelihood to risk reduction strategies differently. Specifically, travel experience of travelers, age, and household income displayed significant differences in the likelihood of adopting most of the risk reduction strategies.     

基于层次分析法的采购领域风险控制指标体系构建

文章以教育、制度、监督、惩处"四位一体"的采购领域风险控制概念化模型为指导,以科学性、全面性、层次性、代表性、动态性、可操作性和可比性为原则,构建了由4个一级指标、15个二级指标、55个三级指标组成的采购领域风险控制的评价指标体系,并对指标体系各层次目标进行评分,确立了最终的组合权重系数,以此确定风险控制优化工作的重心。     

中小企业风险投资分析与控制

中小企业由于规模较小，风险抵抗能力差，加之缺乏控制投资风险的相关人才和经验，所以中小企业更应该加强投资风险方面的管理体系建设；文中首先分析了我国中小企业的现状及作用，然后探讨了中小企业投资风险管理的原则，最后提出了投资风险管理体系的具体实施步骤。     

我国民众个人风险管理状况探索

本文立足于个人风险管理的历史与现状,对东西方个人风险管理文化进行了对比分析,着重讨论了我国民众“三代一体”的个人风险管理模式,阐述了其成因与后果,并指出了民族性的现代风险管理理念缺失的严重性。     

商业银行全面风险管理的问题与对策——基于中国建设银行的分析

目前商业银行风险管理的问题主要体现在风险文化的建设不足、风险管理组织结构的“形似”而非“神似”、风险管理技术与方法落后、风险管理人才严重匮乏等。本文建议,需要建立多种资本参与的商业银行产权体系、构建垂直管理的全面风险管理组织架构、制定风险管理目标和政策、健全事项识别机制、提升风险量化管理为核心的风险管理技术水平、树立科学的风险应对策略观、建立完善的内部控制体系、建立全面风险管理信息系统与严密的监控体制、建立良好的风险控制激励和考核机制与培养高素质的风险经理队伍。     

Modeling exposure to losses on automobile leases

We present an integrated statistical model for assessing risk and projecting financial losses on automobile leases. The model employs nonstationary Markovian state transitions for active leases and hierarchical logistic and regression equations for different outcomes on termination. The model reveals that lower residual risks may partially offset higher credit risk for customers whose credit scores predict higher risk of default. It also reveals a risk profile that differs through time from other secured credits such as mortgages. A three-year follow-up of forecasts versus outcomes for 39,500 leasing contracts shows that the model predicted rates of repossession better than standard roll-rate models with stationary transition probabilities. It displayed similar accuracy in predicting unscheduled terminations and insurance settlements.      

Use of derivatives in public sector organizations

The present paper develops and tests a model explaining public sector derivative use in terms of budget discrepancy minimization. The model is different from private sector models. Private sector models do not readily translate into the public sector, which typically faces different objectives. Hypotheses are developed and tested using logistic regression over a sample of Australian Commonwealth public sector organizations. It is found that public sector organization derivative use is positively correlated with liabilities and size consistent with the hypotheses concerning budget discrepancy management.     

Bootstrapping Financial Time Series

It is well known that time series of returns are characterized by volatility clustering and excess kurtosis. Therefore, when modelling the dynamic behavior of returns, inference and prediction methods, based on independent and/or Gaussian observations may be inadequate. As bootstrap methods are not, in general, based on any particular assumption on the distribution of the data, they are well suited for the analysis of returns. This paper reviews the application of bootstrap procedures for inference and prediction of financial time series. In relation to inference, bootstrap techniques have been applied to obtain the sample distribution of statistics for testing, for example, autoregressive dynamics in the conditional mean and variance, unit roots in the mean, fractional integration in volatility and the predictive ability of technical trading rules. On the other hand, bootstrap procedures have been used to estimate the distribution of returns which is of interest, for example, for Value at Risk (VaR) models or for prediction purposes. Although the application of bootstrap techniques to the empirical analysis of financial time series is very broad, there are few analytical results on the statistical properties of these techniques when applied to heteroscedastic time series. Furthermore, there are quite a few papers where the bootstrap procedures used are not adequate.