美国量化宽松政策对亚太新兴市场国家的影响

量化宽松是美联储在通货紧缩下所采取的一种直接创造货币、扩大央行资产负债表规模的非传统货币政策。量化宽松将给我国等新兴市场国家造成较大的负面效果,建议采取临时性资本管制、针对性量化政策、建立区域货币离岸市场、加快经济结构转型等对策来应对。     

国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响

随着我国金融市场的对外开放,资本自由流动是大势所趋。目前,在我国实施有管理的浮动汇率制度前提下,在应对美国次贷危机不断蔓延的经济形势下,研究国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响,具有非常重要的意义。这里在界定国际资本流动定义、介绍其分类的基础上,分析了我国国际资本流动的现状,从对我国货币供给量的影响、对我国货币币值稳定的影响、对我国央行货币政策的影响三方面探讨了国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响,得出了六点结论。     

欧元区统一货币政策绩效及其对中国的启示

欧元产生以来,欧洲中央银行在统一货币政策的框架下较好的实现了物价稳定的首要任务,却未能有效促进欧元区的经济增长、充分就业和国际收支平衡,主要原因在于:成员国经济基本面的差异使统一货币政策产生了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应。由此给当前正致力于货币合作的东亚地区带来了一个重要启示:应不断加强各国间的政策协调,确保主要经济指标高度趋同,为将来单一货币的实行奠定重要基础。     

美联储五次量化宽松货币政策盘点

伴随着美联储第一轮量化宽松货币政策结束,新一轮量化宽松货币政策业已启动,该政策工具的使用已呈现出针对性、超常规和高度宽松的特征,同时,该工具的政策机制传导出正面和负面效应,也给中国经济带来诸多考验。     

我国前瞻性货币供给规则与宏观经济的稳定我国前瞻性货币供给规则与宏观经济的稳定性——拓展的MIU模型与中国经验

国内研究货币规则的文献大多依据＂损失函数最小化＂标准获得货币政策工具的决策准则,而鲜有从一般均衡模型不动点性质的角度评析我国货币政策规则的文章。本文将一个适用于我国转型时期的货币量规则引入一般均衡的MIU模型,拓展了传统的固定货币增长率的货币经济学模型。文章发现：消费者微观偏好和央行货币政策参数会对宏观经济系统的稳定性产生影响。数据分析显示：我国经济系统获致的不动点为鞍点,即存在一条稳定的轨迹使经济系统收敛于均衡状态。文章建议,货币政策部门密切关注居民微观行为演进和央行货币规则微调对经济系统动态特性产生的影响。

Abstract：

Most domestic literatures on monetary rules are based upon the standard of ＂loss function minimization＂ to get access to the decision-making guidelines regarding monetary policy tools.While,little article looks the problem concerning the assessment of China＇s monetary policy rule from the angle of fixed point nature in the general equilibrium model.This paper introduces a monetary policy rule compatible with our transitional reform period into a general equilibrium MIU model,which is extended from the traditional fixed-money-growth-rate model.This article argues that：micro-parameters of Consumer preferences and the central bank＇s monetary policy have great impact on macroeconomic stability.Further-more,we put forward three testable propositions.According to macro-level data from China,we find that：Our economic system has a saddle-point equilibria,that is to say,there exists a stable trajectory that the economy will converge to this equilibria.The paper suggests that our monetary policy-makers should pay close attention to the micro—behavior evolution of our residents and the monetary regime changes,which will have significant impact on the dynamic characteristics of our economy.     

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

CO‐INTEGRATING VAR MODELS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper surveys some relevant contributions to the economic literature on co‐integrating vector autoregressive (VAR) models [vector error correction mechanisms (VECMs)], emphasizing their usefulness for economic policy. It further discusses some theoretical aspects that are necessary for a complete understanding of their potential. The theoretical introduction of the co‐integrating VAR model is followed by an illustration of its applications to monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchanges rates as well as in establishing the effects of structural bilateral shocks between countries (the so‐called global VAR, or GVAR, models). Special attention is paid to the VECM capacities of being used in conjunction with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and of jointly specifying the short‐ and long‐run dynamics, thus representing the steady‐state of economic systems (by means of the co‐integration relations) and the short‐run dynamics around it.