上市公司净利润和现金流量盈余管理的实证分析

本文通过对沪深两市制造业上市公司2000年至2004年期间,净利润指标(ROA)和经营产生的现金流量净额指标(CFOA)的实证分析,发现亏损上市公司对经营产生的现金流量净额进行操纵的概率要远远低于对净利润的操纵。主要通过操纵营业外收支、投资收益、筹资费用、减值准备、待摊费用等项目实施盈余管理。笔者认为:选择经营产生的现金流量净额指标作为主导指标,结合净利润指标,对上市公司进行监管和评价,能够客观地反映企业的真实财务状况。     

LINEX Loss Functions with Applications to Determining the Optimum Process Parameters

In the classical Taguchi quality model, the symmetric quadratic loss function has been used to measure the loss of quality. However, there are a number of situations in which the symmetric quadratic loss may be inappropriate. In this paper, we proposed an asymmetric loss function, called linear exponential (LINEX) loss function, to determine optimum process parameters for the product quality. When the coefficient of LINEX loss function is small, it will be close to the quadratic loss. Moreover, the trade-off problem between quality and cost will be discussed.     

Impact of eBusiness technologies on operational performance: The role of production information integration in the supply chain

While the information technology (IT) literature is mixed regarding the direct benefits of eBusiness technologies on performance, the impact of such technologies on supply chain practices remains largely an unexplored area of research. We hypothesize that while there may be no direct benefit of eBusiness technologies on performance, these technologies might support customer integration and supplier integration in the supply chain, which in turn might impact operating performance.To examine our hypotheses, we collected data from respondents who focused their responses to a single major product the process that manufactures it, a significant customer, and an important supplier. Our analyses showed that there was no direct benefit of eBusiness technologies on performance; however these technologies supported customer integration and supplier integration. Further, supplier integration was found to positively impact cost, quality, flexibility, and delivery performance; however there was no relationship between customer integration and performance. Consequently, there is a relationship between eBusiness technologies and supplier integration that leads to better performance. Further, there is an interactive effect between customer integration and supplier integration that supports the notion that firms that have both forms of integration, supported by eBusiness technologies, significantly outperform the others.     

加强人力资本经营 振兴吉林经济——吉林省人才流失的博弈分析

在知识经济时代,人才是资本,是推动经济发展的最直接动力。但是,改革开放以来,吉林省无论是企业还是学校人才流失严重,给吉林省经济建设和发展造成不可估量的影响。今天,吉林经济要振兴,必须留住人才。     

关于非经常性损益问题的探讨

在现代资本市场中,不少上市公司利用非经常性损益粉饰业绩,使其挑起上市公司利润大梁的责任,严重影响了会计报表的正确阅读和理解。尽管国家财政部、证监会相继发布了一系列规范,但实际情况并没有大的改观。探讨非经常性损益的相关问题,正确认识非经常性损益,是防止和遏制上市公司利用非经常性损益调节利润、损害投资者利益行为发生的重要手段。     

When do jumps matter for portfolio optimization?

We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a diffusion state variable. We propose an approximation method that replaces the jumps by a diffusion and solve the resulting problem analytically. Furthermore, we provide explicit bounds on the true optimal strategy and the relative wealth equivalent loss that do not rely on quantities known only in the true model. We apply our method to a calibrated affine model. Our findings are threefold: Jumps matter more, i.e. our approximation is less accurate, if (i) the expected jump size or (ii) the jump intensity is large. Fixing the average impact of jumps, we find that (iii) rare, but severe jumps matter more than frequent, but small jumps.     

贷款损失准备计提与商业银行经营风险相关性研究 ——基于经理自主权视角

贷款损失准备的计提作为商业银行调节会计利润的手段,是否对商业银行经营风险有影响,是一个值得探讨的问题。基于我国上市商业银行2007-2017年的数据为研究样本进行实证分析,研究结果表明：贷款损失准备对商业银行经营风险有正向信号传递作用。其中,基于经理自主权计提的自由裁量部分能缓释经营风险,非自由裁量部分对经营风险产生加速放大效应,从而证明了自由裁量贷款损失准备能增强银行风险承担能力,为商业银行经理人员和监管者合理规范计提准备金提供新思路。     

山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险研究

农作物受灾机理十分复杂,在生长过程中往往受到多重灾害的共同影响,本文以山西沁县谷子为例展开综合天气指数保险研究。首先,构建干旱指数PI-、P2-、P3-、P4-、暴雨指数P3+共5个天气指数。然后,引入数据优化匹配方法,通过逐步调整产量去趋势步长、天气指数异常阈值和产量损失阈值,寻找最大拟合优度R2值来达到最优匹配,以实现定量评估天气指数对作物产量影响的目的。在优化匹配关系模型的基础上,得到山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险产品的保险费率、天气指数触发值和赔付标准。本文旨在为开展综合性的天气指数保险提供技术支撑,也为转移与管理气象灾害风险提供实际应用方案。     

The economic burden of brain metastasis among lung cancer patients in the United States

Objective:

Brain metastases among lung cancer patients can impair cognitive and functional ability, complicate care, and reduce survival. This study focuses on the economic burden of brain metastasis in lung cancer—direct healthcare costs to payers and indirect costs to patients, payers, and employers—in the US.

Methods:

Retrospective study using claims data from over 60 self-insured Fortune 500 companies across all US census regions (January 1999–March 2013). Adult, non-elderly lung cancer patients with brain metastasis were evaluated over two study periods: (1) pre-diagnosis (≤30 days prior to first observed lung cancer diagnosis to ≤30 days prior to first-observed brain metastasis diagnosis) and (2) post-diagnosis (≤30 days prior to first observed brain metastasis diagnosis to end of continuous eligibility or observation).

Outcome measures:

Healthcare costs to payers and resource utilization, salary loss to patients, disability payouts for payers, and productivity loss to employers.

Results:

A total of 132 patients were followed for a median of 8.4 and 6.6 months in the pre- and post-diagnosis periods, respectively. At diagnosis of brain metastasis, 21.2% of patients were on leave of absence and 6.1% on long-term disability leave. Substantial differences were observed in the pre- vs post-diagnosis periods. Specifically, patients incurred much greater healthcare utilization in the post-diagnosis period, resulting in $25,579 higher medical costs per-patient-per-6-months (PPP6M). During this period, patients missed significantly more work days, generating an incremental burden of $2853 PPP6M in salary loss for patients, $2557 PPP6M in disability payments for payers, and $4570 PPP6M in productivity loss for employers.

Limitations:

Type of primary lung cancer and extent of brain metastasis could not be assessed in the data. The analysis was also limited to patients with comprehensive disability coverage.

Conclusions:

Development of brain metastasis among lung cancer patients is associated with a substantial economic burden to payers, patients, and employers.     

Discretionary Loan Loss Provisions and Systemic Risk in the Banking Industry

This study examines the relation between earnings management through discretionary loan loss provisions (LLPs) and systemic risk in the U. S. banking sector using a large sample of commercial banks from 1996 to 2009. We find that earnings management increases a bank's contribution to systemic crash risk and systemic distress risk, consistent with the notion that earnings management increases information opacity, facilitates bad news hoarding, co‐moves with macroeconomic conditions, and exhibits cross‐sectional correlation and herding in earnings management. However, the effect of earnings management through discretionary LLPs on systemic risk disappears during the crisis period, consistent with weakened earnings management in crisis times. We also find that the same effect strengthens with bank uncertainty and homogenous loans, and weakens in the post‐SOX period, and when banks are audited by Big 4 auditors.