基于指数合成法的北京市房地产泡沫实证研究

本文首先通过选取不同的指数对北京市2003~2009年的房地产泡沫进行了分析。在此基础上,本文认为不同的指数由于性质各异,所以可能导致分析所得结论差距较大甚至完全相反,因而影响了这些指数的评价效率。因此,本文构建起系统的、逻辑严密的方法分析北京市房地产行业的投资风险,即指数合成法,并用该方法分析北京市房地产行业的投资风险即房地产泡沫问题。     

浅析房地产广告的社会责任问题

随着住房改革的深入以及国家政策层面的支持,房地产开发投资逐年递增,发展了房地产广告,也出现了很多社会责任方面的问题。本文通过总结其中一些问题,提出了解决这些问题的具体策略。     

流动性平衡、价值创造及金融产品设计原则——基于符号经济系统和实体经济系统互动的视角

本文运用含有实际余额效应的瓦尔拉斯模型描述了符号经济系统与实体经济系统的基本平衡条件,并指出流动性(信用)是通过影响价值创造过程而间接地创造价值,但流动性的过度扩张可能导致符号经济系统独立于实体经济运行而与价值创造无涉,打破两系统的基本平衡关系。本文最后通过对美国新金融模式的分析,说明我们仍需按照资金转移及分配和风险转移及分配两种基本中介功能相分隔的原则来设计金融产品,才能避免信用过度扩张而导致的流动性危机。     

Effects of Consumers’ Efforts on Price and Promotion Fairness Perceptions

This research examines how consumers’ efforts as a nonmonetary sacrifice influence their price and promotion fairness perceptions in the context of price promotions. Multiple studies using different price promotion tactics demonstrate that consumers’ perceived level of effort to obtain a reduced price negatively influences their fairness perceptions when they deny the promoted price. Exploring the underlying mechanisms of this effect, we show that the amount of effort consumers exert to obtain a promoted price leads to their feeling of deservingness and entitlement. When the promoted price is denied, this feeling of entitlement is violated, causing unfairness perceptions to occur. The research demonstrates that, in addition to retailers’ actions such as price changes, consumers’ actions, in the form of their effort input, are also an important determinant of fairness perceptions.     

中国房地产企业的市场营销战略研究

本文简单分析了中国房地产市场的发展过程,指出了当前房地产市场存在的问题以及市场营销对房地产企业的重要性,并对不同的营销手段进行了简单阐述.只有不断加强企业的市场营销,才能在未来市场得到充分发展.     

The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

Jobs,location, and real estate

The decision to relocate has traditionally been based on job opportunities alone, with no attention paid to the real estate market. The cost of housing, its rate of return, and its specificity to a location do not enter the decision to move or stay. This article develops a more general definition of income, including real estate and labor markets. The null hypothesis is that relocation is based on comparing labor income differentials alone. The alternative is that income is more broadly based, including real estate returns. Estimates are provided in a quantal choice framework.     

加入WTO对我国房地产业的影响及应对策略

房地产业作为我国新一轮经济增长点，加入WTO对其直接或间接的影响是不容忽视的，分析我国加入WTO后对我国房地产业的影响，针对目前我国房地产业中存在的问题提出应对策略。     

Externalities of R&D Expenditures

Innovation is generally recognized as a major source of economic growth. R&D investments explicitly aim at generating innovations and creating knowledge. Since knowledge has certain public good properties, positive externalities are likely to exist. In this paper, we extend well-known concepts from the input-output literature (backward multipliers) to indicate at which commodities stimuli should be targeted to enhance R&D and its positive externalities in the economy as a whole. Next, we argue that there may also be negative externalities of R&D, due to increased prices. This issue can be studied by means of forward multipliers. Both concepts are applied to the United States, 1977-90.     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate

This article analyses the impact of productivity developments in the United States and the euro area on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The article presents a new measure of relative average labour, productivity (ALP) which does not suffer from the biases implicit in readily available relative ALP data. Importantly, the patterns of these series differ widely. Employing the Johansen cointegration framework, four models are estimated using four different productivity proxies. Our results indicate that the extent to which productivity can explain the euro depreciation varies with the productivity proxy used: readily available measures explain most, our new, preferred measure least. In all models, however, productivity can explain only a fraction of the actual euro depreciation experienced in 1999–2000. JEL no. F31, C32, O47 The views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or its staff.