An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises

The incidence of systemic banking crises has risen over the past twenty years and the costs have been high. Although each country's experience has country-specific factors, several common elements appear in most crisis countries: (1) volatility in the macro economy; (2) the inheritance of structural weaknesses in the economy and financial system; (3) hazardous banking practices; (4) hazardous incentive structures and moral hazard within the financial system; (5) ineffective regulation; (6) weak monitoring and supervision by official agencies; (7) the absence of effective market discipline on banks, and (8) structurally unsound corporate governance mechanisms within banks and their borrowing customers. Causes of such crises are complex and a myopic focus on single factors (e. g. instability in the macro economy, weak regulation, etc.) misses the essential feature of interrelated and multidimensional causal factors. Although macro-instability has been a common feature, and may often have been the proximate cause, banking crises usually emerge because instability in the economy reveals existing weaknesses within the banking system.     

基于资源优势的新疆产业结构优化与路径依赖

自然资源作为一种重要的生产要素,在区域经济发展中的作用是毋庸质疑的,它是区域经济增长的物质基础。但在经济实践过程中,资源禀赋丰富的区域未必是经济增长最快的区域,甚至相反,成了落后区域。新疆自然资源丰裕,但过度依赖资源的发展模式造成近年来新疆资源型经济加剧、产业结构升级缓慢。所以,研究适合新疆产业结构优化的战略,使其资源优势转化为竞争优势和经济优势对新疆经济发展有着十分重要的意义,也是新疆实现跨越式发展亟待解决的问题。本文分析了新疆产业结构的演进及特征、产业结构的路径依赖,并构建模型对产业结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,最后提出了基于资源优势的新疆产业结构优化升级的路径选择。     

市场化进程中的税制结构变迁

本文研究了在市场化进程的不同阶段税制结构与经济增长和福利改善之间的关系。理论研究表明,以商品税为主的税制结构促进了鞍点路径上的经济增长和福利改善,并加速了市场化进程。随着市场化进程的不断推进,当前税制结构对于经济增长和福利改善的正向影响程度逐渐降低,而商品税税率的适度下调可以实现鞍点路径上福利水平最大化。与之相对,商品税占比过高或过低的税制结构,都会出现福利水平的相对损失。实证结果也显示,我国现行税制结构中生产性间接税可以促进经济增长和社会福利的改善,并且市场化程度对这一影响具有显著的调节效应。因此,随着中国经济发展进入“新常态”,政府应进一步简政放权,减少对市场的直接干预,适度调整税制结构,降低间接税比重,实现经济持续增长和福利不断改善。     

Export variety and the economic performance of countries

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent.

中国宏观经济形势分析与调控能力建设

20世纪90年代以来,中国宏观经济经历了三次时间集中、规模和力度较大的宏观调控,经济手段、法律手段和行政手段综合运用,宏观调控艺术不断增强。在市场经济条件下,宏观调控的主要作用是弥补市场缺陷,烫平大的经济波动。当前,国民经济市场化程度不断加深,经济与社会信息化水平不断提升,我国政府的宏观调控能力也应进一步提升,应进一步增强宏观调控的权威性、精确性、可预见性和主动性,同时也要努力构造宏观政策得以有效实施的微观基础。     

中国传媒集团化发展的制度依赖

中国传媒集团化作为中国传媒产业制度变迁的必然发展阶段,发展10多年来取得了可喜的成就,但也出现了传媒改革未达到预期的客观现实。而未建立现代企业的产权制度及"事业单位企业化管理"的二元运作机制、政府规制等方面的限制成为中国传媒集团化发展的最大制度障碍。通过应用制度变迁相关理论的剖析,提出媒介融合、体制创新是中国传媒未来发展的方向,是集团化发展的高级阶段。     

路径依赖负面效应下的企业战略选择探究

路径依赖强调的是惯性的力量能把人们带入定势的死角,人们一旦选择了某个制度,就好比走上了一条不归之路,把这个制度不断自我强化,让你轻易走不出去。企业战略选择是企业战略管理的关键,由于自身的特点,很容易陷入路径依赖效应下的窠臼。因而如何克服企业战略选择的路径依赖的负面效应成为企业战略管理成功与否的关键。     

企业管理中的路径依赖与基于关键点识别的模仿战略实现

传统理论认为,由于路径依赖的存在,企业的战略是不可模仿的。但是笔者认为,在企业的发展过程中存在若干的关键点,通过对这些关键点的模仿,企业是有可能实现成功模仿的。而模仿这些关键点往往需要一定的资源,在到达这些关键点之前,企业还需要经过资源关键区域获得必要的资源。通过"资源关键区域——关键点"的路径,企业可以成功实现模仿战略。     

Motivation for emergency and retirement saving: an examination of Regulatory Focus Theory

Can Regulatory Focus Theory be used to better understand consumers' saving attitudes and behaviours? The theory posits that prevention‐ and promotion‐oriented personality traits may influence financial decision making. Using secondary and experimental survey data, two research questions were examined: (1) Are promotion‐ and prevention‐related saving goals, in combination with promotion‐ and prevention‐oriented personality traits, related to attitudes towards saving behaviour? (2) To what extent does the match between these goals and traits affect actual saving behaviour? Findings confirmed that promotion‐oriented consumers were less likely to save for prevention goals, while the opposite was true for prevention‐oriented individuals. Further, consumers' saving goal and personality trait‐based regulatory focus were found to influence cognitive attitudes towards saving. The discussion focuses on how these findings and theoretical perspectives may predict and influence consumers' financial decision making.     

我国金融控股公司特殊风险管理与控制

综合经营已成为全球金融业的发展趋势,金融控股公司是金融业综合经营的重要载体,与单一金融机构相比,它存在资本重复计算、内部交易、利益冲突、透明度风险、监管套利以及大而不能倒等特殊风险。产生与发展于我国分业经营、分业监管的金融体制下的金融控股公司还存在设立目的复杂、缺乏法律依据、治理机制不完善、监管重叠与监管盲区等风险。针对上述风险,本文提出注重信息披露和传递、设立风险隔离防火墙、完善公司治理结构、建立协调监管机构等管理金融控股公司风险的建议。