Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

The impact of variation in reporting practices on the validity of recommended birdstrike risk assessment processes for aerodromes

Birdstrikes are a major hazard to aviation; costing millions of pounds a year in damage and delays, as well as occasional hull losses and loss of life. The numbers and species of birds on and around airfields therefore need to be managed. To aid this process, airport staff often use risk assessments to identify which bird species cause the greatest risk and use the outcome to target their bird control effort. To this end, a number of national and international regulators, airports and other organisations recommend, or use, a derivation of a risk assessment process first published in 2006. This was developed using the UK Civil Aviation Authority's birdstrike database, employing data collected between 1976 and 1996. The risk assessment process relies on using the proportion of reported strikes that cause damage to the aircraft as a proxy for the likely severity of the outcome of strike incidents, so any change in the relative level of reporting of damaging and non-damaging strikes may significantly bias the results. The implementation of mandatory birdstrike reporting by the UK CAA in 2004 led to a significant increase in the number of strikes reported. If this involved a disproportionate increase in the number of non-damaging compared to damaging incidents reported, it may have impacted on the accuracy of the risk assessment process. This paper examines how differential reporting of damaging and non-damaging strikes can impact on the risk assessment process. It shows that changes in reporting practices since the original risk assessment was developed have impacted on the apparent birdstrike risk at UK airports, giving a false impression of increasing risk over the period. It makes recommendations for how the process can be better adapted to cope with such changes in the future, and how it should be modified for use in countries with different reporting regimes to that in the UK.     

Exploring impact factors of shippers’ risk prevention activities: A European survey in transportation

This paper reports results of a survey examining the impact factors for shippers to implement risk prevention activities. A regression analysis illustrates the relations between risk and quality related impact factors and the shippers’ ability to implement risk prevention activities. The study identifies the corporate risk culture and product vulnerability as main impact factors for the implementation of prevention activities in transportation. This paper will be beneficial for transportation managers considering the implementation of risk prevention activities in the transportation field, and will support further empirical research in the transportation management and supply chain risk management research area.     

Stochastic optimization for investment in facilities in emergency prevention

A coordinated approach is developed to integrate three preventive measures (i.e. building reinforcement, reinforcement of road networks, and facility location of relief supplies), with the objectives of minimizing budgets and risk-induced penalties. The Conditional Value-at-Risk is employed as a decision-making tool to evaluate diverse decisions of prevention based on the degree of risk aversion. Based on a real-world case of an earthquake, a series of scenarios were designed, and the applicability of the proposed model was studied. The coordinated approach for investing preventive measures is cost-efficient in helping reduce the impact of disaster on society.     

Diversification strategy with random yield suppliers for a mean–variance risk-sensitive manufacturer

We consider the diversification strategy for a mean–variance risk-sensitive manufacturer with unreliable suppliers. We first analyze the linear model and find that the suppliers are selected according to the descending order of their contributed marginal expected profit, and increasing the manufacturer’s risk-averseness leads to a more even allocation of demand across the suppliers. Then, we study the general newsvendor model. By approximating the leftover inventory with a normal distribution, we establish the general properties of the active supplier set and show that the supplier selection rule is similar to that under the risk-neutral setting when the demand uncertainty is large. Moreover, we conjecture that the selection rule also applies when the demand uncertainty is low, which we verify with an extensive numerical study. Our paper makes two contributions: First, we establish the properties of the optimal diversification strategy and develop corresponding insights into the trade off between cost and reliability under the mean–variance framework. Second, we perform comparative statics on the optimal solution, with a particular emphasis on investigating how changes in the supplier’s cost or reliability affect the risk-averse manufacturer’s ordering decisions and customer service level.     

The paradoxes of risk management in the banking sector

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that they have failed to rectify a critical imbalance of power - with the back office control functions continuing to be dominated by front office trading and investment functions. Ultimately, viewing the 'core' of risk management systems as a series of connected paradoxes rather than a set of assured, robust practices, requires a fundamental switch in emphasis away from a normative, standards-based approach to risk management to one which gives greater recognition to its behavioural dimensions.     

风险评估标准和儿童用品风险评估研究

本文对国内外的风险评估相关标准进行了研究，分析了标准术语、适用领域方面的差异，总结了产品质量安全风险评估的一般过程，并提出了儿童用品质量安全风险评估的构想。     

Asset price,risk transfer and economic activities: Firm-level evidence from China

The paper investigates the extent of the impact from changes in asset price and risk on corporate investment behaviors as well as the real economy. The results support the unidirectional causality effects from asset price fluctuations on the macro-level. By applying quarterly data of Chinese listed companies, we further find the existence of balance sheet effect on the firm-level, which suggests that the changes in asset prices and risk affect the net asset value, and consequently influence corporate investment decisions. More importantly, the balance sheet effect appears to be much more significant after the implementation of new fair value accounting standards in 2007. The impact on the real economy from asset price risk is found to be more prominent as well.     

Premium auctions and risk preferences: An experimental study

In premium auctions, the highest losing bidder receives a reward from the seller. This paper studies the private value English premium auction (EPA) for different risk attitudes of bidders. We explicitly derive the symmetric equilibrium for bidders with CARA utilities and conduct an experimental study to test the theoretical predictions. In our experiment, subjects are sorted into risk-averse and risk-loving groups. We find that revenues in the EPA are significantly higher when bidders are risk loving rather than risk averse. These results are partly consistent with theory and confirm the general view that bidders' risk preferences constitute an important factor that affects bidding behavior and consequently also the seller's expected revenue. However, individual subjects rarely follow the equilibrium strategy and revenue in our experiment is lower than in the symmetric equilibrium.     

Optimal investment strategies in an international economy with stochastic interest rates

We investigate how investors should optimally choose to invest in a dynamically complete international market. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal investment strategy and for the wealth loss an investor suffers from not investing internationally. Theoretically, we show that the gain from international investment is due to the speculative investment only, and why it is important for an investor from a large economy to invest in a small economy. In a numerical example we compare the wealth losses investors from Denmark and the U.S. suffer due to home bias.