碳关税与减缓气候变化

通过国际贸易与气候变化的关系,本文审视了碳关税作为贸易领域减缓气候变化措施尚存在的问题,认为即使碳关税为世贸组织所接受,在传统意义上也未必能成为一种有效的保护产业竞争力的手段,在亟需全球合作的时刻反而会适得其反。目前,全球的产业合作协定、技术共享等可能更为有效。从长期看,碳关税成为气候政策的一部分将是必不可少的,它可以成为减缓和适应气候变化的重要措施,中国须未雨绸缪。     

论企业资本运作的风险控制

作者结合近几年的工作实践,对企业资本运作的认识和如何搞好企业的资本运营提出一些看法和体会,与大家共同研究探讨.     

基于EGARCH模型和Bootstrap方法的在险价值度量

针对孤立使用传统的历史模拟法及GARCH类模型进行风险分析的不足,把EGARCH参数模型与Boostrap非参数方法结合起来,给出了基于EGARCH模型和Bootstrap的VaR测度的半参数方法。实证结果表明,基于EGARCH模型和Bootstrap的VaR度量方法比传统的历史模拟法计算的效果更好。     

浅谈低碳经济与保险

1997年12月,《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三次缔约方大会通过了旨在限制发达国家温室气体排放量以抑制全球变暖的《京都协议书》。从此以后,气候变化问题开始变成了世界性的潮流话题。经过10几年的讨论和探究,随着2007年达沃斯世界经济论坛和巴厘岛联合国气候变化大会的举行以及2009年哥本哈根气候变化峰会的召开,关于气候变化问题的讨论开始达到了白热化的地步,低碳经济作为气候变化问题的一个重要组成部分开始被越来越多的国家和地区所关注。     

浅析企业投资项目不确定性风险控制

一般的风险控制系统都是以某个风险模型为基础,实现企业投资项目风险的预警、规避的目标.在现代错综复杂的风险市场中,这样的风险模型控制系统控制风险的能力日益变小,主要暴露出模型本身的缺陷、系统反应的缺陷、决策实现的缺陷等一系列的问题.如何将原有的风险控制系统进行优化,实现现代风险不确定性的控制,已经成为了各国金融机构、企业...     

论信用风险缓释工具监管制度的完善——以信用风险缓释工具与信用保险的相似性为视角

作为中国版CDS的CRM业务已正式推出,但至今为止CRM是否因构成信用保险而受保险法监管仍然模糊不清。通过分析ISDA与FSA关于CDS与信用保险的相关观点,以及美国有关CDS监管的新发展,尤其是NCOIL有关CDS监管的示范立法,结合我国当前因未明确CRMA、CRMW与信用保险的界限所产生的问题,提出我国CRM监管制度的法律层级有待提高,并可以在相关部门规章中明确规定CRM业务不属于信用保险业务范畴,同时应当在对卖出保护方规定法定比例的准责任准备金或者履约保证金制度。     

石灰岩地区小水库除险加固工程的经济社会效益分析

简要介绍石灰岩地区小水库的特点、存在问题以及综合采用灌浆、复合土工膜覆盖和坡面复合式防渗等技术集成的加固方案。以江苏省徐州市石灰岩地区的5座小水库为例,参照相关规范分析水库工程取得的社会效益和生态效益,从防洪、灌溉和多种经营效益等方面详细计算了病险水库除险加固工程的经济效益。根据工程的实际资料,采用国民经济评价方法,对5座小水库除险加固工程的经济内部收益率、经济效益费用比、经济净现值3项指标进行了分析。结果表明,该工程在经济上是合理的,具有显著的社会效益和环境生态效益。     

2000～2010年我国洪涝灾害损失综合评估及其成因分析

利用我国的洪涝灾害损失数据,分析了我国2000～2010年洪涝灾害受灾人口、农业受灾面积和直接受灾经济损失之间的关系,洪涝灾害损失的空间分布特征以及受灾损失与年平均降水量之间的关系。根据近10年来我国洪涝灾害的新特点,提出了我国洪水管理及防灾减灾的若干措施。     

Distress rentals and the land rental market as a safety net: contract choice evidence from Tigray,Ethiopia

Rural households in the semiarid Northern Ethiopian highlands are net buyers of food. Crop failure due to erratic and unpredictable rainfall occurs frequently and leads to food shortages and income shocks. The renting out of land may be one of the coping responses of households exposed to shocks. We developed a theoretical household model for poor landlord households capturing their contract choice response to downside production shocks. We tested econometrically whether contract choice may depend on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. The multinomial logit model estimates show that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed‐rent contracts as a distress response to shocks, suggesting that fixed‐rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs, but at the expense of future incomes. We also found that fixed‐rent contracts are preferred when ex ante production risk is low, while sharecropping is more likely where production risk is high. Finally, we found an indication that the choice of a fixed‐rent contract as a coping response to shocks comes as a last resort after all other means of coping are exhausted.     

Production risk,risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among Spanish rice producers

Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk will influence input choices insofar as these affect production risk. Risk attitudes in turn may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Using 2004 survey data from a cross‐section of 130 Spanish rice farms, we estimate risk‐aversion coefficients of farmers and investigate the influence of a series of socioeconomic variables on their risk attitudes. Our results show that farmers exhibit risk‐averse behavior and that risk attitudes are related to a series of socioeconomic characteristics. In particular, the belief that the farm will continue after the producer retires is found to increase the degree of risk aversion, while age is found to have nonlinear effects on risk aversion. Off‐farm income, especially from nonagricultural activities, is found to reduce risk aversion. Neither the educational level of the producer nor the presence of dependents on the household is found to have an effect on risk preferences. Regarding the production technology, we find that land, labor, and fitosanitary products are risk‐reducing inputs, whereas capital, seeds, and fertilizer all increase risk.