民主政治与社会和谐

社会和谐问题的关键,是搞好以民主法治为中心的国家治理。中国的制度变迁是经济和社会层面的变迁,是自上而下推动的改革型的变迁,在由权力集中到权力分散的制度转型过程中,稳中求进是中国实现社会和谐的经验总结,制度的设计不宜过于完美。民主政治是社会和谐的前提和归宿,是执政合法性的来源,没有民主政治就没有和谐社会。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

促进共同富裕的税收制度与政策研究

实现共同富裕是社会主义的根本目标,是社会主义优越性的体现.本文首先介绍了共同富裕的内涵,共同富裕是全体人民的富裕,是兼顾公平与效率的富裕.本文进一步阐述了税收制度在促进共同富裕中发挥的积极作用,并结合具体数据进行国际比较,剖析目前我国税收制度在促进收入分配方面存在的不足.我国税收制度在缩小收入差距方面已取得阶段性成效,但仍存在直接税体系不完善、"税收洼地"引发诸多避税风险、税收征管体制面临多重挑战等方面的不足.最后,本文从持续优化税收营商环境,鼓励勤劳创新致富;健全直接税体系,提高税收调节收入再分配的作用;规范地方税收优惠,维护财政收入分配秩序;提升税收征管水平,严厉打击偷税漏税行为四个维度提出了政策建议.     

The nature of the steady state in models of optimal growth under uncertainty

Summary. We study a one-sector stochastic optimal growth model with a representative agent. Utility is logarithmic and the production function is of the Cobb-Douglas form with capital exponent . Production is affected by a multiplicative shock taking one of two values with positive probabilities p and 1-p. It is well known that for this economy, optimal paths converge to a unique steady state, which is an invariant distribution. We are concerned with properties of this distribution. By using the theory of Iterated Function Systems, we are able to characterize such a distribution in terms of singularity versus absolute continuity as parameters and p change. We establish mutual singularity of the invariant distributions as p varies between 0 and 1 whenever . More delicate is the case . Singularity with respect to Lebesgue measure also appears for values such that . For and Peres and Solomyak (1998) have shown that the distribution is a.e. absolutely continuous. Characterization of the invariant distribution in the remaining cases is still an open question. The entire analysis is summarized through a bifurcation diagram, drawn in terms of pairs .Received: 9 April 2002, Revised: 29 October 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: C61, O41.Correspondence to: Tapan MitraThis research was partially supported by CNR (Italy) under the "Short-term mobility" program and by M.U.R.S.T. (Italy) National Group on "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Models in Economics and Finance" . We are indebted to Rabi Bhattacharya for providing us with the reference to Solomyak's (1995) paper. The present version has benefitted from comments by Mukul Majumdar and two anonymous referees.     

Strategic freedom, constraint, and symmetry in one-period markets with cash and credit payment

Summary. In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these strategic market games well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on information and control they are assumed to have. As an application of these criteria, we present a complete taxonomy of the minimal one-period exchange economies with symmetric information and inside money. A natural hierarchy of market forms is observed to emerge, in which institutionally simpler markets are often found to be more suitable to fewer and less-diversified traders, while the institutionally richer markets only become functional as the size and diversity of their users gets large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, G10, G20, L10, D40, D50. Correspondence to: Eric SmithEric Smith, Martin Shubik: We are grateful to Lloyd Shapley, Duncan Foley, and Doyne Farmer for discussions in the course of this work.     

论缓停建工程中优先权的冲突与顺位确定

由于缓停建工程所涉及的法律权利的复合性与多重性,债权人在实现自己的债权时势必会与他人的民事权利产生冲突,须确立一定的规则来协调各种权利冲突,使处于优位的特定债权人的利益得到保障。在确立解决优先权之间冲突原则的基础上,尚须对各项权利安排合理的顺位,以为法院处理此类问题提供一条切实可行的思路。     

生态经济学基本问题研究

如何审视生态系统、环境系统与经济系统之间的相互关系,关系到对生态经济学基本问题的科学理解,关系到如何运用科学发展观建设和谐社会、实现经济社会持续发展。本文以此为前提,深入研究生态经济学的基本问题,对生态价值、环境价值、经济价值层次的升级,逻辑上的升华及其内在联系进行了探讨。     

经济全球化进程中城市群发展的制度创新

从我国城市群目前的发展现状来看,影响城市群发展的主要因素是制度障碍:城市群跨界需求与行政区分割的障碍、缺乏城市群一体化发展的协调政策、没有形成有效的空间管理机制。因此,制度创新应是发展我国城市群的关键所在,重点是在法律制度、空间规划和管理制度等方面的创新。     

学院制改革:校院系学术权力的重新配置

在经过一系列改革后,我国高校拥有越来越多的办学自主权,但高校内部管理基本上仍然是上令下行的行政管理方式。学院制改革正是要改变这种管理方式,将学术权力进行下放。这种"放权"主要是将学术权力在校院系三个层级进行重新分配,使得学术权力配置更有效率。因此,学院制改革其实也是我国高校自主办学改革的延续和深化。     

黑河流域生态环境保护和建设

黑河是我国西北地区一个较大的内陆河，该流域由于人口压力，林牧矛盾，水资源粗放利用，出现了严重的土地沙化，盐化，沙尘暴等生态问题，本文提出应执行抢救性水源林生态环境建设，合理配置和科学利用水资源，实施跨流域调水等补水工程，构建生态农业体系的发展方略，实现黑河流域生态良性循环，促进区域经济，社会的可持续发展。