中国—东盟大物流的初步形成及制约因素

中国—东盟自由贸易区已建立起来,并初步形成了为自由贸易区经济服务的中国—东盟大物流环境。但是东盟各成员国经济发展不平衡,存在资源、贸易、产业的竞争,自由区大物流还有待进一步完善和发展。这需要各成员国求同存异,摒弃贸易保护主义,共同完成自由贸易区大物流格局的整体升级。     

Constrained Kalman Filtering: Additional Results

This paper deals with linear state space modelling subject to general linear constraints on the state vector. The discussion concentrates on four topics: the constrained Kalman filtering versus the recursive restricted least squares estimator; a new proof of the constrained Kalman filtering under a conditional expectation framework; linear constraints under a reduced state space modelling; and state vector prediction under linear constraints. The techniques proposed are illustrated in two real problems. The first problem is related to investment analysis under a dynamic factor model, whereas the second is about making constrained predictions within a GDP benchmarking estimation.     

Benefit of Employees and Motivation for Earnings Manipulation—— A Case Study of Employee Shares

The employee shares of Guilin Jiqi became tradable in stock exchanges from June 2000. The firm coincidently made up her profit disclosed in the semi-annual report. After ruling out other explanations, we find that the fraud of Guilin Jiqi seems to be intended to help her employees （not including top managers） to reap profits at the expense of misled investors. Our findings offer a potential insight into relating employee shares to insider selling.     

Study on Principal-agent Mechanism in Chinese Private Enterprises

Based on the principal-agent theory, this paper analyzes the current situation and the developing trends of Chinese private enterprises. It points out the obstacles confronted by Chinese private enterprise in setting up the principal-agent mechanism and proposes the corresponding solutions to these problems.     

Market Orientation and Raw Material Control

Much of the existing literature on market orientation emphasizes the role played by the competencies of companies in selling products. However, in industries that rely on a natural resource sector for its primary input, another constraint may dominate: the limitations on supply of that input. We examine this issue in the context of a particular natural resource sector, the fishery, as a case study of the more general phenomenon. Using the example of Norway's apparent lack of market orientation as a supplier of fresh fish, the paper demonstrates how the characteristics of natural resource sectors as well as how public policies are used to manage those sectors may place significant roadblocks in the way of developing a market orientation by the industries that depend on those sectors for raw material. The paper notes that there has been an increased consumer demand for fresh fish, away from the frozen product. This, in principle, should lead to an increased need for a market orientation by sellers and closer relationships between the primary processors and the distributors of fresh seafood. However, several barriers, including those associated with fishery management, hinder this process. These include the presence of a structure where earnings from fishing are independent of quality, the seasonality of supplies in the raw fish markets, the way fish quotas are managed, the structure of first hand sales, and the underdeveloped relationships between supermarkets and the primary processors. In short, the analysis identifies critical linkages between fishery management and the marketing of seafood. Its broader contribution is to increased understanding of the interdependencies between the marketing of natural resource-based products and public management of that resource.     

Proxy-quality thresholds: Theory and applications

We consider alternative models of a regression containing a proxy for an unobserved regressor. For each model at most two pieces of prior information are necessary to determine the sign of any regressor coefficient: the sign of the partial correlation between the proxy and the unobserved regressor, and a lower bound on the partial or simple correlation between the proxy and the unobserved regressor. We apply our technique to investment and leverage regressions that contain a proxy for the incentive to invest. In both cases proxy quality must be high for the coefficient of interest to be non-zero.     

What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?

We study the links between fiscal stimulus packages during times of crisis and households' liabilities. We do so by using household-level data on income and liabilities from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and estimating an empirical model along those in the literature on the consumption effects of these packages. We find that receiving a check from the government tends to translate into a reduction in outstanding liabilities for American households. This effect is robust to controlling for income levels and household size. The effects are driven by households whose income is below the median and by those who remain employed during the crisis.     

基于生态安全视角的耕地生态补偿财政转移支付研究以湖北省为例

目的 基于生态安全视角，通过建立耕地生态安全状况与地方土地财政的定量关系，解决耕地生态保护资金来源问题，建立地方政府耕地生态保护行为激励模式。方法 文章利用耕地投入—产出的能值理论，从“压力—状态—响应”方面选取17个指标建立耕地生态安全评价体系，评价2017年湖北省103个县（市、区）的耕地生态状况，构建计量模型揭示耕地生态安全与地区土地财政之间的关系，划分生态补偿区域并建立耕地生态转移支付模型。结果 湖北省耕地利用能值结构偏不合理，农业机械、农药和化肥等投入量较大，耕地的产出—投入比偏低；湖北省耕地生态安全状况水平偏低，大部分粮棉油基地多属于耕地安全临界区及安全敏感区，且耕地生态安全水平差异显著，生态安全值最低地区为江汉区（0.301 1），最高为利川市（0.663 4）；通过新增建设用地建立两者之间的关系可得，耕地生态综合评分值每增长1个单位，新增建设用地对应减少2.809 hm²，地方政府土地财政收入减少283.203万元。计算得耕地生态支付区达46个，其中江汉区支付额最高（15 859.368万元），受偿区共22个，其中恩施市受偿额最高（7 645.695万元），各县（市、区）的财政转移支付额度占其当年财政总收入的比例在0.120%~3.861%，具有可操作性。结论 为实现耕地高效持续利用、建立地区政府耕地生态保护激励机制、创新生态补偿资金来源提供新视角。     

Testing for the Presence of Financial Constraints in US Agricultural Cooperatives: An Investment Behaviour Approach

This study examines the presence of financial constraints in US agricultural cooperatives. We test the cooperative capital constraint hypothesis with a panel data econometric analysis of agricultural cooperatives’ investment behaviour. Regression results suggest that agricultural cooperatives’ capital expenditures are significantly affected by the availability of internal funds. Results also indicate that the sensitivity of investment to cash flow is correlated with cooperative structural characteristics.     

完善建设用地管理制度的几点建议

随着国民经济和社会的进一步发展,面对经济结构调整和国土资源管理新形势的需要,一些用地管理制度也应跟随形势变化进行补充和完善。为实现土地集约、节约、高效利用,加强国土资源管理工作,应加强用地效益评价工作,进一步完善工业用地出让制度,建立土地资产金融管理制度体系,将矿政管理和地政管理相结合。