“走出去”战略下中国对外直接投资的母国约束研究

本文以一般性的对外直接投资决定因素为模板,改进OLI折衷模型,引入"母国约束",在总结中国近年来对外直接投资的发展历程及潜在的动因的基础上,构建了中国对外直接投资的母国决定因素的分析框架。然后,结合中国的经济发展水平、开放程度和政策措施,分析了中国对外直接投资的驱动因素及其影响机制,据此设定若干假设并一一进行了验证。同时,从中国的"走出去"战略出发,分析了中国对外投资的政策因素影响。     

Your Call: eBay and Demand for the iPhone 4☆

The iPhone 4 was introduced into the UK market on 24^th June 2010 to significant consumer interest. Demand revealed itself exceeding supply through conventional channels, since there was very extensive activity in terms of bidding on eBay auctions for the product. We monitored all UK eBay transactions on the iPhone 4 for six weeks from introduction, with total transactions amounting to around £1.5m. We analyse determinants of winning bids in terms of characteristics of the phone, the seller, and the buyer. Our most notable and novel finding relative to previous studies is a very significant premium over list price being paid in almost all cases, with positive uplift factors including whether the phone was unlocked and whether it could be sold overseas. Demand fell over time, as evidenced by lower achieved prices, but the fall in price was relatively modest. A significant premium of 32GB over 16GB versions is revealed.     

The energy efficiency of local food systems: A comparison between different modes of distribution

The possible contribution of local sales chains to the reduction of energy consumption has been hotly debated in recent years. Some authors establish a link between the reduction of distances traveled by food and lower energy consumption due to transportation, while others hold that local supply chains have a poor energy performance. This article engages this debate by comparing the rates of energy consumption attributable to different modes of distribution of fruits and vegetables in a region of France.     

从股票错误定价看投资-现金流敏感性

在传统的投资-现金流敏感性研究基础上,本文运用中国上市公司2003-2008年面板数据,考察了盈余管理造成的股票错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性的影响.本文的实证结果表明:当股价处于上升通道中时(即投资者看好投资前景时),公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高,并且融资约束对公司的投资-现金流敏感性影响显著,但盈余操纵导致错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性影响不大;股指处于下降通道时,通过盈余操纵导致股价高估的公司,往往无法获得外部股权融资,只体现了更高的稳定股价和投资的意愿,因此,此类公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高.本文运用信息不对称理论,结合投资者情绪和管理者行为分析,对研究结果进行了解释并指出了后续研究的方向.     

股指期货对A股波动性的影响

鉴于GARCH模型适合研究金融时间序列的方差随时间变化的情况,笔者采用该模型研究股指期货的推出能否减少股票市场的波动性。本文选取股指期货推出前后一年的沪深300指数的日收盘价作为原始数据,通过建立GARCH模型就股指期货对股票市场波动性的影响进行了实证研究,结果显示,股指期货的引入在一定程度上降低了我国股票现货市场的波动性,但不显著。     

土地财政、虚高城市化与土地粗放利用

本文从我国当前土地利用低效的现实出发,借助制度经济学和博弈论等理论方法,分析了我国体制转型期土地财政、虚高城市化以及土地粗放利用之间的因果联系。研究表明,我国在城市化过程中出现的种种土地低效利用现象,与体制转型期地方政府的行为,尤其是追求土地财政的冲动密不可分。城市化虚高除表现在城市拓展与产业结构升级背道而驰、人口城市化明显滞后于土地城市化之外,更直接的表现则是许多地方热衷“摊大饼”式的城市化扩张模式。在以经济增长为导向的发展目标激励下,作为城镇建设土地的所有者、供给者与垄断者“三位一体”的政府,会倾向于通过权衡土地的成本和收益,从而赋予土地宏观方面的增长功能。由于中央政府对地方政府的软预算约束,在城市化过程中,地方政府采取“经营城市”、“经营土地”的策略行为就成为题中应有之义,土地的粗放利用也成为必然之后果。     

The evolution of financial constraints

We demonstrate that the severity of financial constraints has declined over time for two reasons: (i) improved access to external funds as evidenced by a decreased reliance on internal cash flows, and (ii) an inward shifting investment frontier with reduced investment opportunities. The decline in financial constraints coincides with the documented diminishing sensitivity of investment to cash flows, yet we show that cash flows remain a determining factor in helping constrained firms overcome restricted access to external capital. There is a flight-to-quality during economic shocks, where the adverse effects following periods of tightened credit are particularly pronounced for smaller firms, with larger firms appearing largely unaffected.     

Do Short Sellers Target Firms with Poor Earnings Quality? Evidence from Earnings Restatements

We study the behavior of short sellers around earnings restatements. We find that short sellers accumulate positions in restating firms several months in advance of the restatement and subsequently unwind these positions after the drop in share price induced by the restatement. The increase in short interest is larger for firms with high levels of accruals prior to restatement. We document that heavily shorted firms experience poor subsequent performance and a higher rate of delisting. Overall, these results suggest that the motive for short selling is, at least in part, related to suspect financial reporting and that short sellers pay attention to information being conveyed by accruals.

出口退税、汇率调整与出口企业的最优销量——基于相互市场古诺模型的分析

文章利用冰山假说把国内税率、出口退税率以及汇率政策因素纳入存在多个国内与外国企业的相互市场古诺模型,分析了以国内税、出口退税与汇率为核心的策略性贸易政策对出口企业利润最大化的最优出口销量与国内销售的影响,并且以这种比较静态分析为基础,对各种单一政策与多项政策组合的调整效力进行排序。这些分析得出如下的结论:就单一政策的调整效力而言,出口退税优于国内税收与汇率政策;就政策组合的调整效力而言,出口退税与国内税组合优于国内税与汇率的组合。     

城镇化背景下中国金融监管政策选择

发展中国家金融管制政策经历了从金融抑制、金融深化到金融约束的转变。本文研究了这三种金融发展理论的理论模式及政策取向,从学理角度探讨了三种模式下城镇化实践的经验和教训,并得出“金融约束型”监管是目前我国金融支持城镇化建设的现实选择这一结论。最后,本文指出了在推动城镇化进程中,“金融约束型”监管模式对政府机构和金融机构的启示。