Service recovery expectation model – from the perspectives of consumers

This paper explores the influence of the major attributes of consumers, such as personality traits, gender, number of consumptions, and levels of involvement, on service recovery expectations. A combination of linear multivariate statistical analysis and nonlinear fuzzy neural network models is further used to analyse data and validate hypotheses. Consumers of middle-to-high-end Chinese restaurant chains are sampled as the interactions between these restaurants and consumers are frequent. The empirical research finds that old customers have lower expectations of service recovery than new ones and male consumers have lower expectations than female consumers. Extrovert-type consumers have lower expectations of service recovery than introvert-type consumers. There is a positive correlation between consumers' involvement and service recovery expectation. As this paper examines the expectations of service recovery from the perspectives of consumers, it aims to help companies use pre-processing of service recovery as a precautionary measure, rather than as a remedial measure as mostly seen. Different from the vast majority of literature that deals with the issue by focusing on western enterprises, this paper uses small-and-medium enterprises in Taiwan and constructs management implications accordingly.     

Product recall,brand equity,and future choice

Abstract

The number of major product-recall incidents involving established brands have increased markedly over the last few years. Although the direct costs have been evaluated in these cases (typically in the millions), the indirect costs to brand equity and subsequent loss of market share are harder to evaluate. This paper applies a simulated multistage choice-based experiment to assess the impact of hypothetical product-recall experiences on brand-equity measures and, importantly, future brand choice. Contrary to some evidence, we find that product-recall experience has greater negative impacts for established strong brands than weaker non-established brands. Additionally, attributes of product recall such as the seriousness of the recall problem and speed of recall announcement impact on pre- and post-recall differences in consumer evaluations of brand equity. Differences in brand-equity evaluations for the established strong brand significantly affect post-recall choice.     

Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach

How forward guidance influences expectations is not fully understood. To study this, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I describe how, when, and where forward guidance has worked. I estimate that forecasters revised their interest rate forecasts in the intended direction by five basis points on average following a forward guidance change. I provide estimates for The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Sveriges Riksbank, and Norges Bank.     

A new approach to measure tactical voting: evidence from the British elections

Although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention, it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals’ voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences. In this article, we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results. This approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies. We show that tactical voting played a significant role in the 2010 election, mainly for Liberal–Democratic voters supporting Labour. Moreover, our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes. We also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting.     

Expectations and Satisfaction in Channel Member Relationships in the Victorian (Australia) Fruit Industry

Abstract

The paper reports findings of research into the dynamics of customer satisfaction formation amongst fruit producers and their distribution channel(s), within the economically important northern Victorian (Australia) fruit industry. The paper suggests reasons why previous approaches to the issue of satisfaction in channel member relationships, which typically utilize constructs of ‘economic’ and ‘non-economic’ satisfaction, may usefully be supplemented by application of the ‘disconfirmation of expectations’ model. The research actually tests a modification of the traditional disconfirmation model that incorporates dimensions of ‘outcome’ and ‘process’ at the levels of expectations, performance and disconfirmation—a ‘dualistic’ model. This had previously been tested only in a radically different business-to business-context, that of advertising creative services. The findings suggest that satisfactory measurement of growers' expectations can be achieved. They also suggest that the disconfirmation model does appear to apply in this previously untested service context, whether unitary measures of expectations and performance, or the dualistic interpretation of expectations/performance, are utilized.     

Using Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the relationship between overconsumption and uncertain access to one's personal utility function

The failure of income and subjective well-being to correlate strongly beyond subsistence levels has been well documented. This is an important observation from an environmental perspective because it suggests that some excess consumption could be curbed without leading to a decline in subjective well-being. At the same time, there is evidence that access to one's internal utility function is imperfect, indicating that choices may approximate utility maximization but that the correspondence is unlikely to be exact. Here I use a Monte Carlo model to incorporate findings from hedonic psychology to investigate the question of how imperfect access to one's utility may lead to negatively affective overconsumption through asymmetries in how people are able to budget their time. According to the model, consumer debt leads to a compounding of this issue. Although it cannot return well-being to the ideal level, some hedonic costs of this overconsumption can be partially mitigated through required vacation in excess of what individuals would chose themselves in a fully functioning market, perhaps along the line of the European model.     

Immediate Disclosure or Secrecy? The Release of Information in Experimental Asset Markets

This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets designed to investigate how the public disclosure of uncertain information affects market and individual outcomes. In some markets, no information is released as trading starts, and in others, an imperfect pre‐announcement is disclosed. The reliability of the pre‐announcement varies across markets. Our data indicate under‐reaction to a pre‐announcement that is highly reliable and over‐reaction to one with much lower reliability. Price volatility is higher and allocational efficiency is lower with a pre‐announcement that reflects substantial uncertainty. Furthermore, when the reliability of the pre‐announcement is low, traders extract a smaller proportion of the total attainable profit. Thus, in a highly uncertain environment better outcomes may result when information is withheld. These results have important policy implications regarding the disclosure of information by the Federal Reserve. In a highly uncertain environment, better outcomes may actually result with less information.     

Socially Subjective Equilibrium in Strategic Form Games

This study provides a new framework and a new equilibrium concept, which are able to describe the situation where people have various images of the society and have various solution concepts for social outcomes, and where people accept the social outcomes. In socially subjective equilibrium, people have a coherence of their own norms in two senses. One is the consistency of the norm itself. Imagined outcomes should satisfy a certain (subjective) solution concept. The other is the consistency between the imagined outcomes and realized one. These are the main features of our equilibrium concept. This paper forms a part of my doctoral thesis, which is titled “On socially subjective equilibrium”. The first person I would like to thank is my direct supervisor Professor Ken Urai (Osaka University). I obtained a basic idea of the main concept of my doctoral thesis, that is, the solution concept scheme, from Professor Urai. I am grateful to Professor Hiroaki Nagatani (Osaka University) and Professor Ken-Ichi Shimomura (Kobe University), who monitored my works and took efforts in providing me with valuable comments on earlier versions of my thesis. I also obtained a fruitful advice from Professor Kenichi Amaya (Kobe University). Lastly, I specially thank to Kozo Shiraishi (Osaka University).     

Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off

By using a multi-country simulation model this paper analyzes the qualitative effects of joining a monetary union. The transition to EMU (European Monetary Union) is shown to produce interest and exchange rate changes with substantial and countervailing effects on the real economy which can be traced through the model. Observable anticipation effects in the wake of the EMU are substantiated; and some policy recommendations for joining any monetary union are derived. It is also shown that fixing conversion rates at last-day market rates produces a unique outcome and not exchange rate indeterminacy as argued by De Grauwe (1997), Obstfeld (1998), and others.     

论市场经济与个人经济权利的进步

市场经济是推动个人经济权利进步的重要动力。市场经济之所以能够推动个人经济权利的进步，是因为市场经济与个人经济权利之间存在着密不可分的联系。市场经济的分工与交换、独立的主体利益和自由选择三个特征从不同的方面推动着个人经济权利的进步。