教育叙事研究：搭建教师专业化成长的桥梁

作为近年来颇受青睐的教育研究新方向，教育叙事研究根植于日常的教育教学生活实践，为教师专业发展开创出良好的前景。本文通过探讨教育叙事研究的内涵进而说明其对教师专业发展的重要性，并针对教师专业发展的困难，初步探讨如何在教师专业发展中推行教育叙事研究。     

Good for one,bad for all: Determinants of individual versus systemic risk

We analyze a sample of large international banks in major advanced economies and examine the impact that bank-specific factors have on an institution's solvency risk and its contribution to systemic risk. We focus on the five categories that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has recently proposed as indicators of systemic importance. Our findings suggest that unstable funding is the main factor driving systemic risk. Furthermore, the combination of significant trading activities with global presence appears to exacerbate spillover risks to the global financial system. Interestingly, whereas trading activities contribute to the build-up of correlated or ‘wrong-way’ risk they help to mitigate individual solvency risk. Conversely, a decentralized approach to liquidity management seems to alleviate individual solvency risk but amplifies the transmission of financial distress across the financial system. This suggests that a macro-prudential approach to financial regulation should focus not only on scaling up micro-prudential measures but also on enabling the efficient transfer of risk between financial institutions.     

Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.     

新时期高校教育工作——高校思想政治教育专业的教学创新探析

加强高校思想政治教育专业的思政教育,有着极其重要的理论意义和实践意义。我们要采取各项切实有效的措施,加强高校思政教育的广度和深度。在实践中,我们既要正确处理好教育目标与教育者之间的关系;又要正确处理好教育目标与教育对象之间的关系;还要正确处理好教育目标与教育内容和教育方法之间的关系。     

Market procyclicality and systemic risk

We develop a model that captures, at the same time, the temporal dynamics of single-firm credit risk and the contagion across banks via a network of obligations and common assets. In particular, we enrich the continuous-time modelling approach of default by accounting explicitly for the procyclical loop between asset prices and leverage. Contagion can spread well before any default occurs, through the value of the obligations held by counterparties. Moreover, the extent of procyclicality effects depends explicitly on the structure of both the interbank network and the asset bank network. We analyse the model in a simplified scenario of a densely connected core of banks and we carry out a systematic investigation of how procyclicality emerges from the multiplicative interplay of market illiquidity and tightness of capital requirements.     

Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence

This paper analyzes the systemic risk effects of bank mergers to test the “concentration-fragility” hypothesis. We use the marginal expected shortfall as well as the lower tail dependence between a bank’s stock returns and a relevant bank sector index to capture the merger-related change in an acquirer’s contribution to systemic risk. In our empirical analysis of a dataset of international domestic and cross-border mergers, we find clear evidence for a significant increase in the merging banks’, the combined banks’ as well as their competitors’ contribution to systemic risk following mergers, thus confirming the “concentration-fragility” hypothesis.     

Has the financial system become safer after the crisis? The changing nature of financial institution risk

Six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the question of whether the U.S. financial system has become less risky remains unanswered. On the one side, new regulations including Dodd-Frank and Basel III have made improvements by requiring higher bank capital, and financial institutions themselves have reduced risk-taking activities. On the other side, it has been argued that “the fundamental risks remained and the efforts of regulators and politicians were simply rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.” (Baily and Elliott, 2013) This paper highlights the changing nature of financial institution risk from 2005 to 2011. It finds that while these institutions have become less risky individually after the crisis, the financial market has become more vulnerable to systemic contagion. The causal inference that the crisis and the post-crisis legislation have gradually changed the nature of financial institution risk is drawn from a quasi-experimental design. This finding suggests that the ever more integrated financial system might experience more synchronized contractions in future crises, providing empirical support for the proposals of the inter-bank collective regulation of banks by Acharya (2009) in addition to the intra-bank collective regulations as in Froot and Stein (1998) and BIS (1996, 1999).     

Stopover destination image – perceptions of Dubai,United Arab Emirates,among French and Australian travellers

ABSTRACT

This study reports a rare investigation into the phenomenon of stopovers during long-haul international travel. Although destination image has been one of the most popular topics in the tourism literature, there has been a lack of attention by researchers regarding the context of stopover destination image for long-haul international air travellers. Indeed most studies have measured destination image without explicitly stating any travel context. A mixed methods approach in two geographically distant markets yielded externally valid findings. This study commenced with a qualitative stage in two countries to elicit attributes deemed salient to individuals when considering an international stopover. Attributes elicited from the two samples were triangulated with the most common themes reported in the destination image literature. A set of 29 attributes was then tested in two online surveys involving 777 consumers in Australia and France. The study highlights the value of engaging with consumers in a qualitative stage, to design a context-specific destination image questionnaire. By using this approach, 12 potentially determinant attributes of stopover destination attractiveness were identified, eight of which have not been commonly used in destination image studies, and one of which represents a new destination image attribute in the literature.     

Systemic risk: The coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies in China

The literature documents the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in controlling systemic risk, but empirical evidence of a systemwide framework that effectively coordinates the two policies is lacking. This study assesses the effectiveness, channels, and timeliness of monetary and macroprudential policies’ impacts on systemic risk in China from January 2009 to June 2018, and contributes to the discussion of how to coordinate these policies. Using an index synthesized from 28 indicators to proxy China’s systemic risk, we find the following: (1) A contractionary monetary (macroprudential) shock increases (reduces) systemic risk over the entire shock time period. (2) Macroprudential (monetary) policy is effective in the long (short) term. (3) The systemic risk intervention effect of monetary (macroprudential) policy is channeled through inflation control (asset price stability).     

Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market

This study assesses systemic risk in the US credit default swap (CDS) market. First, this study estimates the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate fair value data and theoretically analyze interconnectedness in the US CDS network using various network measures. Second, this study theoretically analyzes the contagious defaults. The default analysis shows the theoretical occurrence of many stand-alone defaults and one contagious default via the CDS network during the global financial crisis. A stress test based on a hypothetical severe stress scenario predicts almost no future contagious defaults. Thus, risk contagion via the CDS network is unlikely.