地区科技发展与经济发展的协调性分析——基于相对效率角度

地区科技与经济的协调发展是当今经济社会发展的主题之一,该方面研究主要涵盖协调性概念、判断与评价标准、预警以及对策与措施四方面内容。基于数据包络分析方法（DEA）建立的综合评价模型直接从作用的有效和无效角度出发,能客观衡量地区科技发展与经济发展的耦合效果。实证研究表明,东部地区科技发展与经济发展协调性较好,中西部地区则一般或较差;东部应重视科技资源的使用效率,中西部则应重视科技成果的转化,加大科技资源的投入,发挥科技发展对经济发展的带动作用。     

发达国家技术创新转化经济绩效机制对辽宁的政策启示

发达国家经济史证明,技术创新转化为经济绩效的过程并不具有普适的路径,不同地区有不同的特点与动力机制。而探讨这些技术创新与经济绩效的内在机制,并且科学地、理性地看待并实践现有的区域技术创新政策,对于提高辽宁区域经济绩效水平是非常重要的。     

自然资源开发、区域技术创新与经济增长——一个对“资源诅咒”的机理解释及实证检验

结合资源型地区的现实情况,建立了一个资源型地区的三部门内生经济增长模型,对自然资源开发与区域技术创新、经济增长之间的关系进行了市场动态均衡分析,为资源型地区遭受的"资源诅咒"现象提出了一种机理解释,即自然资源开发对区域技术创新存在挤出效应。同时,利用我国西部11个省区面板数据的回归分析对这种挤出效应进行了有效验证。依据研究结论,提出了中央和地方政府需要共同对技术研发能力、产业结构调整和人力资本积累三大方面同时加强来提高资源型地区的技术创新能力,从而促进其区域经济增长的政策建议。     

Self-organization of R&D search in complex technology spaces

We extend an earlier model of innovation dynamics based on percolation by adding endogenous R&D search by economically motivated firms. The {0, 1} seeding of the technology lattice is now replaced by draws from a lognormal distribution for technology ‘difficulty’. Firms are rewarded for successful innovations by increases in their R&D budget. We compare two regimes. In the first, firms are fixed in a region of technology space. In the second, they can change their location by myopically comparing progress in their local neighborhoods and probabilistically moving to the region with the highest recent progress. We call this the moving or self-organizational regime (SO). The SO regime always outperforms the fixed one, but its performance is a complex function of the ‘rationality’ of firm search (in terms of search radius and speed of movement). The clustering of firms in the SO regime grows rapidly and then fluctuates in a complex way around a high value that increases with the search radius. We also investigate the size distributions of the innovations generated in each regime. In the fixed one, the distribution is approximately lognormal and certainly not fat tailed. In the SO regime, the distributions are radically different. They are much more highly right skewed and show scaling over at least 2 decades with a slope around one, for a wide range of parameter settings. Thus we argue that firm self-organization leads to self-organized criticality. The online version of the original article can be found under doi:.     

The Manhattan Metaphor

Fixed operating costs draw a sharp distinction between endogenous growth based on horizontal and vertical innovation: a larger number of product lines puts pressure on an economy’s resources; greater productivity of existing product lines does not. Consequently, the only plausible engine of endogenous growth is vertical innovation whereby progress along the quality or cost ladder does not require the replication of fixed costs. Is, then, product variety expansion irrelevant? No. The two dimensions of technology are complementary in that using one and the other produces a more comprehensive theory of economic growth. The vertical dimension allows endogenous growth unconstrained by endowments, the horizontal provides the mechanism that translates changes in aggregate variables into changes in product-level variables, which ultimately drive incentives to push the technological frontier in the vertical dimension. We show that the potential for exponential growth due to an externality that makes entry costs fall linearly with the number of products, combined with the limited carrying capacity of the system due to fixed operating costs, yields logistic dynamics for the number of products. This desirable property allows us to provide a closed-form solution for the model’s transition path and thereby derive analytically the welfare effects of changes in parameters and policy variables. Our Manhattan Metaphor illustrates conceptually why we obtain this mathematical representation when we simply add fixed operating costs to the standard modeling of variety expansion.     

智慧城市建设对城市科技创新能力的影响

基于2008—2018年中国212个地级市面板数据,构建双重差分模型，评估智慧城市建设对城市科技创新能力的政策影响效应，并对城市异质性进行拓展分析。结果显示，智慧城市政策能够显著提高区域科技创新能力，且城市科技创新基础越好，政策效应越突出。据此提出智慧城市建设应从优化科技创新投入结构、共建协同创新平台、完善成果转化机制、优化创新空间布局等多个维度协力打造科技创新生态，整体提升科技创新实力。     

跨界搜寻的创新驱动力：一个有调节的中介模型

以来自4个省份的357家企业为研究对象，以动态能力理论为基础，探讨跨界搜寻对技术创新的影响，以及动态能力和技术动荡在其中的中介与调节作用。结果发现：跨界搜寻的两种类型搜寻（技术知识和市场知识）对组织技术创新具有显著正向影响。同时，动态能力中介两类跨界搜寻和技术创新之间的正向关系，在技术知识跨界搜寻与技术创新之间发挥完全中介作用，在市场知识跨界搜寻与技术创新之间发挥部分中介作用。此外，组织外部较高的技术动荡水平不仅会加强动态能力对技术创新的正向影响，还会强化动态能力在两种类型搜寻与技术创新之间的中介效应。     

创新补贴、企业技术产出与价值实现

基于创新价值链视角，以2010-2017年中国129家民营科技企业面板数据为样本，运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），动态分析和评价政府创新补贴对民营科技企业技术创新与价值实现两个阶段的激励效应。研究结果显示：第一，从短期激励效应看，政府补贴对技术创新产出的促进作用更显著，而从长期激励效应看，政府补贴对创新价值实现的方差贡献更大；第二，企业创新价值链不同阶段的产出对后续政府补贴配置均有积极正向反馈作用，但政府更关注企业技术创新产出；第三，前期技术创新对后期价值实现具有显著正向影响，但价值实现对新一轮创新活动的支持效果不显著。     

The relation between the average complexity of high-tech products and their diversity: An empirical test of evolutionary models

What is the relation between the average level of complexity that characterizes a product's technology, and the degree of diversity of that technology across rival firms? Evolutionary theories of innovation and technical advance are consistent with either a direct or an inverse relation. The issue thus becomes an empirical one. This paper uses a unique database containing detailed quantitative data on the specifications of 12 high-tech product groups for the U.S., Japan and selected European countries, for 1982, for both products and processes. It is found that the more complex the technology, the less diverse is the technology of rival firms that produce the product. This is consistent with the following evolutionary process: Economies of scale and scope inherent in high-level technologies require firms who adopt them to dispose entirely of older technologies, in order to remain competitive; at the same time, older, simpler technologies continue to exist and permit wide diversities among firms who pursue “niche” market strategies.     

中国制造业就业增长的反向变动趋势

本文试图考察在我国技术进步偏向资本增加情况下,资本深化对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业就业增长的反向作用。鉴于我国技术进步具有要素偏向性,本文在构建理论模型时加入有偏技术进步假设,发现在技术进步偏向资本要素投入的条件下,资本深化会加深对就业的负向冲击。并利用wind数据库公布的中国制造业2383家上市企业2007-2018年数据,从横向和纵向两个维度验证了这点,结果发现:(1)在技术进步偏向资本要素投入时,资本劳动比增长率提高会降低整个制造业的就业增长率,技术进步吞噬就业。但是,资本深化对劳动密集型与资本密集型、技术密集型的就业增长作用呈反向趋势。(2)自供给侧结构性改革提出后,该反向变动趋势加强。这意味着,在技术进步和制造业深度融合过程中,劳动者需不断提高自身技能,提高就业竞争力;企业和政府配合提供培训支持,防止工人由于技能不匹配而导致大规模的结构性失业。