175 years of adaptation: North Scandinavian Sámi reindeer herding between government policies and winter climate variability (1835–2010)

Unmanaged wild reindeer populations tend to follow cyclical behaviour, and domesticated reindeer populations often show cyclical behaviour, too. In this contribution, we intend to use the long-term development of two areas in northern Scandinavia to explore how externally imposed policies and winter climate variability have influenced the reindeer herd size and pasture state. We do this by comparing the development in two areas that are rather similar ecologically: Torneträsk in northernmost Sweden and Kautokeino (Vest-Finnmark) in northernmost Norway.Climatic and ecological studies as well as commons theory have been useful tools for understanding the inherent socio-ecological dynamics. Especially the time from 1850 to 1940 includes several short periods when historical sources document combinations of events such as (1) closure of national borders to cross-border herding migrations, (2) relocations of herder households, (3) overutilization of lichen pastures, (4) catastrophic winters, and (5) forced herd reductions. The high number of incidents and actions during this era makes it challenging to disentangle causes and effects.Our main findings are based on the documented effects of international events and consequent government policies and actions in Fennoscandia from 1852 to 1921 which had dramatic consequences, including excessive numbers of reindeer and people in northernmost Sweden, leading to more or less forced relocation southwards in Sweden with cascading effects in large parts of Sápmi. We have found clear indications that this contributed to overutilization of lichen pastures and beyond any reasonable doubt must also have reinforced the effects of several of the documented catastrophic climatic events, especially in areas like Torneträsk to where many families from Finnmark were relocated. From the first border closure in 1852 to the Second World War it thus seems as if the shocks from the political events were the main factor determining the development of reindeer herding in large parts of Sápmi. The political and administrative history is well documented. Our climate data are a unique compilation of climate events based on multiple sources during two centuries, which contribute to the validity of our findings. Our pasture state data from the late-1800s are also based on several sources which support each other.Two new factors influencing the general cyclical pattern have arisen more recently. Motorization has increased the possibilities for intense pasture utilization and the amplitudes between minimum and maximum herd sizes, while supplementary feeding has the potential to limit the effects of winter climate variability and lichen overutilization.     

天安门精神是中华民族伟大复兴的原动力

经过近现代历史练狱的天安门,凝聚有浓烈的批判精神,体现着强烈的时代精神,散发出醇烈的公共精神。天安门精神是中华民族伟大复兴的原动力。     

广场景观设计探究——以咸宁市人民广场为例

城市广场在城市道路交通系统中具有多种功能的空间,是城市居民们的政治以及文化活动的中心,也是公共建筑最为集中的地方,是城市不可缺少的部分。     

GARCH models,tail indexes and error distributions: An empirical investigation

We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns and compare these to the tail indexes produced by simulating GARCH models. Our results suggest that actual and simulated values differ greatly for GARCH models with normal conditional distributions, which underestimate the tail risk. By contrast, the GARCH models with Student's t conditional distributions capture the tail shape more accurately, with GARCH and GJR-GARCH being the top performers.     

负面情感事件对一线服务人员情绪、满意及承诺的影响——以高交互服务行业为例

高交互性是服务行业的重要特征之一,服务过程中,服务人员会与顾客高频率接触,并通过与顾客的互动传递服务价值.在服务传递过程中通常会伴随出现一些情感事件,多为服务失败等负面情感事件,影响服务人员的情绪和满意.该研究在文献回顾的基础上,构建了高交互服务行业中情感事件对一线服务员情绪影响的模型,并以餐饮业为例对模型进行了实证检验,最终证实:管理者关怀导向和雇员的事件归因会对员工负面情绪产生影响,并最终影响其内部补救后的满意和情感承诺；同时,服务人员的情绪智力差异对模型起到调节作用.最后,文章阐述了研究结论与不足和下一步的研究方向.     

Evaluation of long-dated assets: The role of parameter uncertainty

Under expected utility, the uncertainty that affects the parameters of the random walk of consumption growth has no effect on the value of short-term claims and makes the term structure of risk-free rates decreasing. The term structure of aggregate risk premia is increasing when the uncertain cumulants of log consumption are independent. We apply these generic results to the case of an uncertain probability of catastrophes, and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth. Adding some persistence to unobservable shocks into our benchmark model, we show that the term structure of risk premia is hump-shaped.     

Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.     

Extreme events: a study of small oil and gas firms

The oil and gas industry is subject to different types of risks, many of which have the potential to generate extreme results. Classifying extreme events as global, industry specific and firm specific, we use a Bayesian probability model and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to evaluate the impact of disclosure of extreme events on returns and return volatilities. The results suggest political events have more of a pronounced effect compared to those classified as economic events. The overall effects are more pronounced at the global and firm‐level classifications. At the firm level, extreme economic events have a more significant impact than political extreme events.     

论高校危机管理模式的构建

社会政治、经济和内部管理等多种因素的综合影响可能诱发学生群体性事件。高校要积极建立危机管理预警机制,实施有效信号侦测;加强信息沟通,正面引导舆论,迅速处理危机;完善矛盾化解机制。     

我国上市公司捐赠保值效应的实证研究

本研究的对象为发生负面事件的企业，研究企业捐赠的保值效应，拓展了企业捐赠经济效应的研究，对现阶段负面事件频发的中国企业具有重要实践启示。本研究运用事件研究法和回归分析方法，考察了中国企业捐赠的保值效应，即企业捐赠能够在企业负面事件发生时为股东财富提供保值。来自中国上市公司的经验表明，中国企业捐赠具有保值效应。实证结果还支持了事件性质对企业捐赠保值效应影响的研究假设，结果表明，与发生其他负面事件相比，发生竞争性负面事件时企业捐赠为股东财富保值的效果越弱。