A contextual understanding of projects—The importance of space and time

This article analyzes the managing of high-tech projects in complex and dynamic settings. Building on recent developments in organization theory and knowledge management, we focus on the importance of understanding the ways in which project-centered activities are shaped in time and space, both in the organization itself and in a wider context embracing customers, consultants and suppliers. A longitudinal case study including semi-structured interviews, observations and secondary data will substantiate our findings. The study offers both theoretical and practical insights suggesting that projects are exposed to a varying degree of complexity and dynamics, calling for different managerial approaches. The analysis shows that boundary spanning has many dimensions that have to be considered in the management of projects in space and time. The article concludes by suggesting seven analytical categories for analyzing and understanding projects in their spatial and temporal contexts.     

我国三大经济地带就业弹性的比较--基于面板数据模型(Panel-data model)的实证研究

本文利用面板数据模型（Panel-datamodel）的计量方法，对我国东中西三大经济地带1978～2003年的经济总体就业弹性和非农就业弹性进行估计，揭示了这三个区域经济增长率与就业增长率之间关系的差异，论证了东部地区就业弹性均明显高于中西部地区，并对它们差异的形成原因进行了简要分析。     

外资推动的开放型经济不应质疑——对“昆山之路”质疑的回应

改革开放以来,昆山大力引进外资推动开放型经济的发展,取得了巨大的经济成就.然而,昆山经济发展的过程中也面临着一些阶段性的问题,继而质疑其发展模式合理性和发展可持续性的声音不绝于耳.这些质疑大部分在理论与实践上都是站不住脚的,以昆山为代表的外资推动型经济是可持续的,而且是其基于自身比较优势作出的正确选择.     

Climate Change,Crop Selection and Agricultural Revenue in Ghana: A Structural Ricardian Analysis

We apply a Structural Ricardian Model (SRM) to farm‐level data from Ghana for seven principal food crops in order to model the factors which influence farmers' decisions about which food crops to grow and the revenue conditional on these choices. Our application of the SRM incorporates a flexible functional form to allow for the possibility that the effects of temperature and rainfall may not be linearly separable. We use this model as a basis for simulations of the effects of climate change. These simulations suggest that extreme climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the average net revenue per hectare from maize, which accounts for over half of current food production. Across a range of climate change scenarios, there is also substantial substitution of maize for heat‐tolerant millet, and a reduction in the cultivation of other crops. Under most of the climate change scenarios that we consider, these results imply a substantial reduction in the aggregate value of agricultural production, since millet is the lowest‐value crop.     

企业管理创新影响因素与过程机制：研究综述及整合模型

在全球新一轮技术创新和产业变革背景下，企业管理创新能够有效改进组织功能，并充分利用组织资源实现组织目标。当前研究尚未厘清企业管理创新的影响因素与作用机理，对于管理创新过程机制问题尚未达成共识。基于文献研究，通过构建具有内外分层、交互影响特征的企业管理创新影响因素整合模型，以及循环递进的企业管理创新过程机制整合模型解决西方管理理论本土化问题，并通过调动管理创新的积极影响因素降低管理创新失败率，提升理论成果应用的普适性，这也是未来研究方向。     

Adaptive learning forecasting,with applications in forecasting agricultural prices

We introduce a new forecasting methodology, referred to as adaptive learning forecasting, that allows for both forecast averaging and forecast error learning. We analyze its theoretical properties and demonstrate that it provides a priori MSE improvements under certain conditions. The learning rate based on past forecast errors is shown to be non-linear. This methodology is of wide applicability and can provide MSE improvements even for the simplest benchmark models. We illustrate the method’s application using data on agricultural prices for several agricultural products, as well as on real GDP growth for several of the corresponding countries. The time series of agricultural prices are short and show an irregular cyclicality that can be linked to economic performance and productivity, and we consider a variety of forecasting models, both univariate and bivariate, that are linked to output and productivity. Our results support both the efficacy of the new method and the forecastability of agricultural prices.     

SPAM模型和遥感结合提取华北地区春夏玉米种植面积

[目的]获取农作物空间分布信息,对于研究区域粮食安全、气候变化、陆地碳氮循环和水资源利用等都具有重要意义。[方法]该研究首先应用作物空间分配模型(SPAM-China模型),在5'×5'栅格尺度上重建了1980—2010年华北地区玉米空间分布信息;然后基于SPOT VEGETATION长时间序列NDVI数据,获取了该区域的作物熟制信息,并进一步划分出了华北地区春、夏玉米种植类型区;最后,重点分析了2000—2010年间华北地区春玉米和夏玉米种植区域的时空变化特征。[结果](1)1980—2010期间,华北地区玉米种植面积增加了360万hm2,增加面积集中在中南部地区,变化主要发生在2000年以后;(2)2000—2010期间,华北地区春玉米面积增加136万hm2,占该区玉米总种植面积的比例由17%上升至27%;夏玉米种植面积尽管也增加了87万hm2,但占该区玉米总种植面积的比重呈下降趋势;(3)春夏玉米混种区为华北地区玉米主产区,近年来呈现为春玉米增加、夏玉米减少的发展趋势,全区域92%春玉米面积增加和76%夏玉米面积减少均发生在春夏玉米混种区域内,可见该区以春玉米为代表的一熟制正呈现逐步取代以冬小麦—夏玉米为主二熟制的变化趋势。[结论]该文基于SPAM模型和遥感结合提取华北地区春、夏玉米种植面积的方法,为大区域、长时间尺度作物种植信息的获取提供了新思路。     

我国分级诊疗模式是否能节约医疗资源

本研究借鉴2014版的Andersen模型构建分级诊疗与医疗资源利用的理论框架,并基于2008-2014年126个城市的平衡面板数据,利用双重差分法量化评估我国行政主导下的非强制性分级诊疗模式的实施效果,作者首次检验了医疗生产要素规模、人口老龄化程度在分级诊疗对医疗资源利用影响中的调节作用。该研究发现：（1）分级诊疗的实施显著节约了门急诊与住院服务资源利用,并且平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID等方法的结果仍然稳健。（2）通过异质性分析发现,地区医疗生产要素规模越大,分级诊疗对门急诊服务资源的节约效应越强。（3）地区人口老龄化水平越高,分级诊疗对住院服务资源的节约效应越强。基于上述结果,作者认为在人口老龄化背景下,实施分级诊疗可以优化医疗资源配置,提升医疗服务利用效率,减少医疗资源浪费,但是,我国深化分级诊疗改革,必须平衡不同层级医疗机构之间的利益关系,实现不同层级医疗机构从利益竞争到分工合作。该研究科学论证了我国分级诊疗模式能有效节约门急诊与住院服务资源利用,为人口老龄化背景下完善分级诊疗模式提供理论指导,也为进一步深化医疗体制改革提供借鉴参考。     

科技计划与科技标准协同创新模式研究

科技计划和科技标准协同创新是科技创新的关键。对科技计划和科技标准协同创新进行基础性研究：阐述科技计划和科技标准协同创新内涵、关键要素以及特征等基础理论，研究科技计划和科技标准协同创新模式，并结合我国科技计划、科技经费与财务标准协同情况进行分析，提出我国科技计划和科技标准协同创新建议。