Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

高校女职工的“工作-家庭”关系及其态度研究——以安徽省芜湖市高校为例

高校女职工中普遍存在“工作一家庭”兼顾的平衡模式，一方面，女职工承担起大部分家务，为丈夫的事业发展做出了牺牲；另一方面，女职工对工作有着积极的态度和较强的事业心。调查发现：这种“工作一家庭”兼顾的平衡模式并未在女职工生活中的造成重大冲突；由于女职工受到传统性别意识的影响，事业心不足，为家庭奉献的决心仍旧存在，因而她们较...     

On the conceptual foundations of financial reporting

Standard setters advocate a balance sheet approach to financial reporting, which views assets and liabilities as primary, and income as just the derivative change in net assets. This paper argues that income is conceptually and practically better described as ‘adjusted net cash flows,’ where the adjustments are the accounting accruals. One proof of that is seen in the existence of whole accounting systems like tax accounting and national income accounting, which emphasize the determination of income but have no balance sheets. The paper also argues that an income-based approach to financial reporting is by nature better suited to reflect the success of advancing cash to earn more cash, which defines what for-profit entities do. There are two main features of the income-based approach. One is attention on the cash flows as the natural foundation for financial reporting because they are precisely determined, and provide a clear link to firm valuation. The other is attention on the accounting accruals, which serve to adjust the raw cash flows to better show the current success of investing cash to ultimately earn more cash. Specifically, the paper argues for revenue recognition which is close to current practice, and for expense recognition which is aligned with the matching principle.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.     

基于自贸区的上海国际航运中心功能优化研究

上海国际航运中心建设过程中,"软实力"发展相对进展缓慢,而自贸区设立为上海国际航运中心提升"软实力"提供了良好契机。以上海国际航运中心的功能优化为研究对象,从航运主业、辅业与衍生服务业3个方面,分析了自贸区相关政策和措施给上海国际航运中心建设带来的"红利",通过与伦敦、香港、鹿特丹和新加坡等世界知名国际航运中心的功能比较与经营借鉴,提出在自贸区条件下,上海国际航运中心应重点发展和优化航运辅助业和航运衍生服务业,系统布局航运服务网络,提升航运服务业水平,持续完善航运金融、仲裁和信息平台发展,不断加强航运教育与培训。     

Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt in advanced economies. This paper calculates endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction function to growing debt has the “fiscal fatigue” property (a loosening fiscal effort makes the primary balance insufficient to support rising debt) at high debt levels. The combination of this feature of the primary balance reaction function with the market interest rate reaction to growing debt determines the government debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. An application to OECD countries over the period 1985 – 2013 with a model-based risk-premium shows that current debt limits are high for most of the OECD thanks to particularly low risk-free interest rates. It also shows for some countries that current debt levels are not sustainable without a change in government behaviour. Most importantly, the framework illustrates the state contingent nature of debt limits and therefore the vulnerability of governments to a change in macroeconomic conditions and to market reactions. Last, computations with an estimated interest rate reaction to public debt illustrate that debt limits are lower in the euro area than in other countries because of a sharper market interest rate reaction to rising debt.     

服务贸易:新常态下创新路径

服务业开放水平不高和贸易监管制度不健全已成为我国服务贸易发展的制约。在我国经济新常态下,应充分利用上海自由贸易试验区建设机遇,加快开放以计算机服务为重点的跨境交付、以专业服务业为主的商业存在和以职业资质互认为重点的自然人移动等领域,培育本土供应商和打造公共服务平台,完善服务贸易监管制度、促进制度和统计制度,推进区域拓展和主体拓展,实现我国服务贸易整体创新。     

大城市劳动力供需平衡与外来劳动力就业政策研究——以上海市为例

文章在经济转型和大城市人口调控背景下,研究了上海劳动力资源供需平衡趋势与外来劳动力需求情况。研究显示,在上海经济保持一定的增长速度下,2015-2020年外来劳动力需求量在700-856万人之间,这使大城市在对待外来劳动力上处于尴尬境地,一方面面临着经济发展对外来劳动力的依赖性,另一方面面临着大城市人口调控的压力。目前上海劳动力市场中外来劳动力与本地劳动力在就业岗位、工资待遇、社会福利等方面仍存在一定的差异。外来劳动力与本地劳动力在岗位上更多的是一种优势互补关系,对外来劳动力歧视有悖于社会公平理论,同时政府的强行调控政策也不利于劳动力市场的发展。政府的职责应该是尽可能地创造出健康、有序、公平的市场秩序,让市场在调节劳动力供需和结构性短缺上发挥决定性作用。     

Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting

This paper introduces a key methodological innovation into generational accounting. By incorporating cyclically‐adjusted balances into the forward‐looking budget projections underlying the concept, we isolate pure policy effects, which render comparisons of the fiscal sustainability indicators obtained across time and countries truly meaningful. We also show that a demographic effect and a debt effect may drive fiscal sustainability measures over time, and establish a routine to control for these effects in the generational accounting framework. An empirical application for Spain illustrates that our proposed decomposition of indicators is empirically relevant. Standard generational accounting suggests that fiscal sustainability in Spain improved substantially in preparing for EMU. However, calculation of the pure policy effects reveals that this has not been the case.     

LACK OF RIGOUR IN DEFENDING FAIRTRADE: A REJOINDER TO ALISTAIR SMITH

Smith (2010 ) does not deny that he made errors in economic theory, logic and fact, and that he had misused evidence. He says that I misrepresented a large body of theory, that I distorted what he said in four places and that I was wrong in one sentence. These statements are false.