Finite lifetimes,long-term debt and the fiscal limit

The U.S. faces exponentially rising entitlement obligations. I introduce a fiscal limit—a point where higher taxes are no longer a feasible financing mechanism—into a Perpetual Youth model to examine how intergenerational redistributions of wealth, the average duration of government debt, and entitlement reform impact the consequences of explosive government transfers. Three key findings emerge: (1) Growing government transfers cause more severe and more persistent stagflation than in representative agent models that do not capture intergenerational transfers of wealth; (2) A longer average duration of government debt pushes the financing of government liabilities into the future and reduces the short-run impacts of explosive transfers; (3) The time it takes the economy to rebound from a period of growing transfers increases exponentially with the number of years it takes to pass entitlement reform.     

Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process

A widespread view in the ‘political budget cycles’ literature is that incumbent politicians seek to influence voters’ perceptions of their competence and/or preferences by using the composition of the fiscal budget as a signalling tool. However, little is known about whether voters actually receive and perceive the signal in that way. To empirically assess the relevance of the signalling channel at the municipal level, we conducted a survey among 2000 representative German citizens in 2018. Only a small fraction of voters feel well-informed about the fiscal budget signal and use the information it contains to decide whether to vote for the incumbent politician. Persons paying more attention to the signal sent by local politicians live in smaller municipalities, are more satisfied with their economic situation, are more educated, and do not feel that they are being electorally manipulated. Our analysis raises doubt about the relevance of budget composition as a signalling mechanism for voters at the local level.     

分析师跟踪、内控有效性与科技型中小企业创新

基于2009-2017年创业板317家科技型中小企业数据，从发明专利产出视角，探究分析师跟踪、内部控制有效性与企业技术创新的关系。结果显示，分析师跟踪人数显著提升了企业发明专利产出，内部控制有效性在分析师跟踪人数与企业发明专利产出关系中起部分中介作用，且在融资约束程度较高的企业中更为显著。即企业内外部治理机制有效配合对科技型中小企业技术创新发挥促进效应，且该效应在企业融资约束程度较高时更为显著。     

技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。     

科研组织应该控制其衍生企业吗——基于中国上市科研组织衍生企业的研究

创办衍生企业是科研组织实现科技成果转化的重要途径之一。在衍生企业创办之初，科研组织作为“家长”，在衍生企业成长过程中扮演着不可或缺的角色，但随着衍生企业逐渐发展壮大，科研组织作为学术机构参与企业经营管理的弊端也逐步显现。同时，伴随着衍生企业不断成长，对外来资本的需求增加，母体科研组织面临股权被稀释，甚至失去控制权的问题。那么，当衍生企业发展到一定规模，母体科研组织作为衍生企业实际控制人是利大于弊还是弊大于利？以中国境内上市科研组织衍生企业为样本，分析科研组织衍生企业母体控制权对企业绩效的影响，结果发现，科研组织作为衍生企业实际控制人时，企业绩效更优。     

均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济高质量发展

本文首先从理论层面系统阐述均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济增长质量三者之间的多重作用机制。其次立足“五大发展理念”构建综合指标体系对经济增长质量展开测度，本文发现我国地方经济增长质量虽然在整体上呈缓慢上升态势，但其绝对水平相对偏低，且具有较为明显的地区异质性。最后本文通过构建动态面板联立方程模型与采取三阶段最小二乘法进行实证考察，结果表明：地方政府公共支出结构与经济增长质量显著正相关，但均衡性转移支付与经济增长质量的正相关关系并不显著。标准化回归结果显示均衡性转移支付能够通过优化公共支出结构对地方经济增长质量产生间接提升效应。     

Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that the mere existence of fiscal rules correlates with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering the strength of rules through a continuous index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are generally robust and not affected by weak instrument problems.     

泡沫对食品发酵的影响及控制

本文分析了食品发酵过程中泡沫的产生机制、影响,介绍了常用的泡沫控制策略。重点分析了不同消泡剂的作用机理,以及联合控制措施,以期为生产中泡沫消除提供参考。     

省直管县改革与区域空气污染——来自卫星反演数据的实证证据

从政府治理结构改革的角度探讨如何推进环境污染治理是一种有益的尝试。从理论上来说,省直管县改革作为一种重要的政府治理结构改革,能够通过简化政府治理级次来改变政府治理效率,影响诸如环保等公共产品和服务的供给。本文采用卫星反演的PM2.5数据检验了省直管县改革前后县级区域空气污染的变动趋势。发现“财政省直管县”改革能显著降低地区空气污染水平,“强县扩权”改革则显著加剧了地区空气污染。稳健性检验、进一步的分析结果均支持上述结论。机制检验发现,“财政省直管县”主要体现为财力保障水平提升导致的治理变化,而“强县扩权”则主要体现为地方政府竞争行为改变导致的空气污染治理变化。总之,单纯的政府级次减少可能并不必然利于地方公共服务的提供,良好的财力保障为地方污染治理服务提供了支撑,竞争行为变化带来的改革效应则会受到政府对环境污染重视程度的显著影响。     

FINANCING URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE: KNOWNS,UNKNOWNS, AND A WAY FORWARD

Improved urban infrastructure is widely believed to be essential in facilitating economic growth and in improving the lives of urban dwellers, both in developed and in developing countries. This paper focuses on several dimensions of urban infrastructure finance: finance for major infrastructure improvements in major economic centers, finance for expansion of basic municipal services in secondary cities and towns, and intergovernmental systems for financing investments with impacts beyond jurisdictional limits. It reviews what is “known” about current practices in these areas, using international evidence and case studies and summarizing international best practices. It also indicates areas in which knowledge gaps remain. Despite these “unknowns,” there are avenues by which our understanding of infrastructure schemes can be enhanced, and some suggestions for a research agenda on financing urban infrastructure are offered in the concluding section.