Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series

Multiresolution wavelet analysis is a natural way to decompose an economic time series into trend, cycle, and noise. The method is illustrated with GDP data. The business-cycle component of the wavelet-filtered series closely resembles the series filtered by the approximate bandpass filter.     

On modeling heterogeneity in linear models using trend polynomials

The primary aim of the paper is to consider the problems and issues raised when the data exhibit time heterogeneity in the context of linear models. Ignoring time heterogeneity will undermine the reliability of inference and will give rise to untrustworthy evidence. Accounting for it using trend polynomials, however, is non-trivial because it raises several modeling issues. First, when the degree of the polynomial is greater than 4, or so, one needs to deal with the near-multicollinearity problem that arises. The second issue pertains to the type of polynomial that will adequately account for the time heterogeneity. Third, when the trend polynomials are treated as additional regressors, they will give rise to highly misleading statistical results. The paper investigates how different types of polynomials could deal with the near-multicollinearity and the modeling issues they raise, and makes recommendations to practitioners.     

Trend inflation and macroeconomic stability in a small open economy

This paper estimates a small open economy New Keynesian model for Australia with positive trend inflation while allowing for multiple equilibria. We first show the extent to which positive trend inflation can shrink the determinacy region. We then conduct a Bayesian estimation over two separate periods: from 1983Q1 to 1993Q1, covering the pre-inflation-targeting regime, and from 1993Q2 to 2018Q4, covering the inflation-targeting regime. We find that Australian monetary policy before the adoption of inflation-targeting permitted multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling inflation expectations to arise, resulting in exacerbated macroeconomic volatility. The implementation of inflation-targeting in Australia in the early 1990s successfully eradicated equilibrium multiplicity and sunspot shocks, and thereby drove the economy towards greater stability.     

向管理审计转变 推进内部审计创新

管理审计既是内部审计自身发展的必然要求，也是企业自身发展的内在需要，是内部审计发展的必然趋势。管理审计作为内部审计的发展方向，应当努力推广，要以业务经营审计为基础，要根据企业实际，循序渐进地开展，审计人员要提高自身的素质，以适应工作的需要。     

中国股票市场波动率分解及长期趋势研究

Campbell等（2001）为实证研究市场的长期趋势特征提出了市场波动率分解模型，其特点是将波动率按成因进行分解并且该分解不依赖于β系数。采用该模型，本文将我国股票市场1991至2004年的波动率实证分解为市场波动率、行业波动率和公司波动率。研究了我国股票市场三种波动率的长期变化趋势。与美国市场相比（美国市场1962至1997年间市场和行业波动率保持稳定而公司波动率增长了一倍），本文的实证结果表明：我国市场1991至2004年间市场、行业和公司波动率均存在显著的下降趋势；表现出了与国际市场不同的趋势特点；随着时间的推进，我国股票市场在不断成熟、市场效率不断提高。进一步的研究表明，1998年后我国股票市场中市场波动率最大。公司波动率略小，而行业波动率则远小于前两者。本文的研究结论将为政策制定者和投资组合风险管理者提供宏观借鉴，我国投资风险管理的战略重点首先应对冲市场风险，其次分散公司风险。     

浅析我国人力资源方面存在的问题及解决对策

人力资源是最重要的生产要素。当前我国人力资源存在着总体素质较低、教育投入不足、结构不合理、老龄化趋势严重、地区差距较大等问题,只有从加大教育投入,完善教育立法,加强中外教育、两岸三地教育合作等才能全面提高人力资源总体水平,也才能为未来的经济发展奠定坚实的基础,从而使中国人力资源开发朝着更加良性、合理的方向发展。     

跨国公司在华直接投资独资化研究

从我国利用外商直接投资的实践来看，跨国公司正在不断加强对我国市场的投资，值得注意的是．其进入我国市场的方式正在发生变化，更多的公司采取独资或追加已有投资的方式提高其股权比例。现在独资公司已经成为跨国公司在华直接投资的一种主导形式。跨国公司独资化对我国的影响如何。应采取那些应对措施，对这个问题进行研究有利于我国更好地利用外资。     

香港旅游业的"内地化"弊端与国际化走向

针对香港旅游业出现的"内地化"趋势,从香港旅游业在国际旅游体系的地位及其发展状况出发,分析香港旅游业"内地化"存在的弊端,认为"国际化"才是香港旅游业发展的方向,并提出应加大海外市场推广和宣传工作、加强大珠三角旅游合作、利用香港的优势在全球范围内推出"过境游"及举办旅游会展活动等政策措施,以保障香港旅游业能有效地在"国际化"道路上发展。     

操作风险管理现状及其趋势研究

银行业对操作风险的管理仍处于探索阶段。从操作风险的特征出发,分别从监管、信息支持、量化方法和管理框架角度对银行业操作风险管理现状进行总结评析,并在此基础上分析了该领域的发展趋势和研究方向,为进一步深入研究提供了建议。     

Thirty-five years of journal of econometrics

The paper discusses how the Journal of Econometrics started and has grown over the years. It analyzes a trend in the research areas of the published articles and reviews some of the important papers that have been published. It concludes with an assessment of the future of the journal.