Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting

How well can people use autocorrelation information when making judgmental forecasts? In Experiment 1, participants forecast from 12 series in which the autocorrelation varied within subjects. The participants showed a sensitivity to the degree of autocorrelation. However, their forecasts indicated that they implicitly assumed positive autocorrelation in uncorrelated time series. Experiments 2 and 2a used a one-shot single-trial between-subjects design and obtained similar results. Experiment 3 investigated the way in which the between-trials context influenced forecasting. The results showed that forecasts are affected by the characteristics of previous series, as well as those of the series from which forecasts are to be made. Our findings can be accommodated within an adaptive approach. Forecasters base their initial expectations of series characteristics on their past experience and modify these expectations in a pseudo-Bayesian manner on the basis of their analysis of those characteristics in the series to be forecast.     

以零售商为核心企业的供应商管理库存实施

在信息化时代,传统的供应链模式已经不能满足企业追求利润的需要,因此供应链上下游之间更为紧密合作的供应商管理库存（VMI）应运而生。研究了VMI三种运行模式中供应商——零售商（核心）模式下,仅有供应商与零售商以及在第三方物流企业参与下两种模式的零售商和供应商的运作。同时给出了在企业运行供应商——零售商（核心）模式时,企业应该注意的问题,并初步提出了VMI的将来可能的改进模式——联合计划预测补充（CPFR）。     

宁波石浦酒家周边地区交通影响分析

交通影响分析就是对城市开发项目与交通需求增长之间的关系进行研究,分析项目对城市交通的影响程度和影响范围,进而确定相应的对策或修改方案,以减小开发方案对交通的影响。从石浦酒家周边道路交通现状、周边相关项目的开发、交通需求以及交通改善方案来分析改善石浦酒家周边地区的交通,使得服务水平满足宁波目标年交通需求。     

基于序号总和理论的御河大桥交通量预测研究

为了评价公路网设计的可靠性,提高交通量预测的精确度,以交通工程的基本理论为指导,在大量调查数据的基础上,运用时间序列法的线性、二项式、指数等方法进行交通量预测,得到了相应的预测模型,通过序号总和理论得到了精确度较高的预测模型,并通过预测模型计算出未来特征年的交通量,为交通量的预测研究提供了一种新的研究思路。     

Innovation forecasting: A case study of the management of engineering and technology literature

The following paper contributes to the methodology of innovation forecasting. The paper analyzes the literature of engineering and technology management. A brief history and justification for interest in engineering and technology management is presented. The field has a sixty year history of interdisciplinary, and is therefore a ripe source for closer investigation into time trends of knowledge. The paper reviews the literature of innovation forecasting, examining a range of theoretical and methodological literatures interested in the evolution of knowledge. A new application of a model, suitable for sparse and count-like publication data, is presented. A mathematical presentation of the model is offered. A discussion is offered on how the model may be implemented in an approachable way within spreadsheet software. A time history of engineering management literature is extracted from a database and analyzed using the model. A projection of keyword growth is offered, and key features of the emerging knowledge base within engineering management are discussed. Recommendations for future research, as well as for those monitoring the status of the discipline of engineering management, are made.     

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment

The development of human-level AI has been a core goal of the AI field since its inception, though at present it occupies only a fraction of the field's efforts. To help understand the viability of this goal, this article presents an assessment of expert opinions regarding human-level AI research conducted at AGI-09, a conference for this AI specialty. We found that various experts strongly disagree with each other on certain matters, such as timing and ordering of key milestones. However, we did find that most experts expect human-level AI to be reached within upcoming decades, and all experts give at least some chance that some milestones will be reached within this time. Furthermore, a majority of experts surveyed favor an integrative approach to human-level AI rather than an approach centered on a particular technique. Finally, experts are skeptical about the impact of massive research funding, especially if it is concentrated in relatively few approaches. These results suggest that the possibility of achieving human-level AI in the near term should be given serious consideration.     

地区主网规划的负荷预测方法研究

随着经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,社会用电需求量不断增加,据统计,我国目前的用电负荷每年以10%左右的幅度增长。用电负荷持续增长主要是由于人口增加、企业发展、产业增多、工业生产等多方面因素所致,这对电力主网的运行造成了巨大的压力。为了避免主网在超负荷状态下运行,维持社会电力系统的稳定、安全、可靠运行,做好主网规划工作是必不可少的。针对这一点,文章主要阐述了主网规划中负荷预测方法的运用。     

粮食供求变化的分析与Logistic模型预测——以云南省粮食供求研究为案例

以云南省的粮食供求为研究对象,就区域性粮食安全问题讨论了影响云南粮食生产若干因素及未来发展趋势,应用Logistic阻滞增长模型对云南省粮食单产、粮食总产量和人口进行预测。通过估算云南省未来粮食需求状况,就云南省未来的粮食供求平衡进行了测算,认为云南省未来粮食供求的格局仍有很大的不确定性,其区域性粮食安全形势严峻。     

简述提高地面气象测报质量的方法

地面测报工作作为气象测报工作基础中的基础,其测量质量的高低直接影响着气象测报工作的总体质量.作为气象测报工作人员,笔者对日常气象观测过程中几种常见的问题进行了简单的介绍,并着重对如何提高地面气象测报质量提出了几点建议.希望对我国地面气象测报工作的开展有所帮助,进而提高我国气象观测的总体水平.     

供应链融资中贸易物流可视化信息的作用

供应链融资是近年在我国兴起的一项新的融资模式,拥有较大的市场需求及发展潜力。但在国内供应链融资的发展过程中,存在着因信息不透明而导致的融资成本高、风险大等问题。文章以供应链融资在我国的发展现状为基础,着重分析了贸易物流可视化信息对供应链融资的影响,及其未来的发展趋势。