由非货币性交易新准则引发的一系列思考

为了适应我国企业经营方式的变化和提高证券市场会计信息披露的质量，财政部于2001年初对非货币性交易准则重新予以修订。新准则实施1年来，发挥了抑制关联交易、打击证券投资市场投机活动的重要作用，体现了会计准则的中国特色和国际化的有机协调。但任何事物都有其两面性，新准则在其具体实施过程中出现了准则和制度的衔接、自身的发展与完善等诸多问题，而此类问题的出现应当引起广大会计界人士的关注。     

略论WTO对我国法制统一的影响

为履行WTO协议要求的统一、公正、合理的原则，我国必须尽快改变立法的混乱局面，加快法制统一的步伐，在立法的原则、主体、权限、程序、监督等方面建立和完善相应的制度，使我国各种法律规范成为相互联系，统一协调的有机整体，以迎接WTO对我国法制建设的挑战。     

我国原产地规则存在的问题与对策研究

原产地规则(Rules of Origin,ROOs)是国际贸易中的一项重要规则和各国海关管理的一项重要制度,它涉及到每一国家和地区的经济贸易利益,因此已成为各国对外贸易政策的重要组成部分。然而当美国、欧盟等发达国家、区域集团把原产地规则作为一种“灰色”的政策工具灵活自如地运用时,中国对原产地规则的运用却仍停留在最惠国和普通两栏关税税率的计征和进口国别统计上。由此引发了大量的他国歧视性地使用原产地规则的纠纷。中国制定和运用相对完善的原产地规则以抵御贸易保护主义、维护自身利益已迫在眉睫。     

WTO规则与我国高新技术产业税收优惠政策的冲突与协调

WTO规则是国际商业活动的基本规则。我国高新技术产业税收优惠政策中存在着与WTO规则的冲突 ,协调冲突的办法就是按 WTO规则对现行税收优惠政策进行协调与修订。     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality.     

Experimental internet auctions with random information retrieval

We run an experiment where 97 subjects could retrieve records of completed past auctions before placing their bids in current one-bid, two-bid, and auction-selection games. Each subject was asked to participate in 3 current auctions; but could retrieve up to 60 records of completed (past) auctions. The results reveal a positive relation between the payoffs earned by the subjects and their history-inspection effort. Subjects act as if responding to the average bidding-ratios of the winners in the samples that they have retrieved. They apply intuitive signal-dependent stopping rules like “sample until observing a winner-value close to my won” or “find a close winner-value and try one more history” when sampling the databases. History-inspection directs bidders with relatively high private-valuations to moderate bidding which increases their realized payoffs. (JEL C9 D4 D8) Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C93, D44, D83     

基于模糊概念的可疑金融交易量化关联规则研究

从模糊集的基本理论入手,通过定义模糊概念软化属性域的划分边界,提出了一种新的基于模糊概念的量化关联规则方法.本方法克服了因划分区间而造成数据缺失的不足.最后通过将某市2004年的实际数据运用到建立的算法中,验证算法的有效性,为有效开展可疑金融交易识别提供了有益的参考.     

Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky