Choice under complete uncertainty: axiomatic characterizations of some decision rules

Summary. We provide characterizations of four new rules for individual decision-making under complete uncertainty. They are what we call the min-max rule, the max-min rule, the lexicographic min-max rule and the lexicographic max-min rule. These rules provide orderings of the sets of possible outcomes associated with uncertain prospects. They provide significant alternatives to commonly-used rules that focus on worst outcomes or best outcomes only, and lexicographic versions of those rules. Received: August 20, 1998; revised version: November 3, 1999     

Beyond natural selection and divine intervention: The Lamarckian implication of Adam Smith's invisible hand

Adam Smith's invisible hand metaphor (IH) is examined in light of two different accounts of the origin of traits: Charles Darwin's theory of evolutionary optimization and William Paley's theory of divine intervention. Smith's stand supersedes both accounts. For Smith, intermediating drives, such as the sexual one, neither arise accidentally and favored according to their fitness à la Darwin nor planted by the Deity à la Paley. For Smith, such drives are adopted in light of their ultimate end. Smith did not provide an account of how the drives are connected to their far-reaching, invisible beneficial ends or why do agents become dimly aware of that causality.     

论企业创新与规范化管理的关系——从智猪博弈的视角

企业发展稳定的程度,直接决定于企业基础管理水平的高低。企业基础管理水平的高低,又直接决定于企业规范化管理的程度。企业规范化管理就是通过建立、健全、完善、优化一套公开透明、上下认同、系统完整、行之有效的游戏规则采实施管理。可是,很多企业领导人总担心企业规范化管理会约束员工的创新探索,降低企业的创新力。由智猪博弈故事可知,一个企业有无创新力,与企业管理是否是通过游戏规则的建立、健全来实现无关,而仅仅与游戏规则的内容相关。任何企业组织,要保证创新力,规范化管理都是前提。只有规范化管理,才能建立、健全能激发员工创新热情、积聚员工创新能力的游戏规则。     

商业银行资产负债期限结构的错位与债务业务创新

中国银行业长期面临的资产负债期限结构错配的问题正日趋严重。商业银行这种以短期负债支撑长期资产的所谓“短存长贷”现象,极易引发流动性风险,一旦出现储蓄存款减少或发生挤提,很容易产生支付危机。本文提出债券业务创新是解决上述问题的一个切实可行的选择,通过债券业务创新,有助于改变我国商业银行负债管理能力偏弱的状况,同时也可以提高资产的流动性,降低利率风险,增强资产管理的灵活性。     

On the Kim and Roush Voting Procedure

We study in this paper some features of a new voting rule recently proposed by K.H. Kim and F.W. Roush. The (conjectural) optimality of this voting rule with respect to statistical manipulability by coalitions is discussed under two alternative probabilistic assumptions, namely the impartial culture condition (IC) and the impartial anonymous culture condition (IAC). We also analyze the ability of Kim and Roush procedure to fulfil the Condorcet conditions. Some representations of its Condorcet efficiency in three-alternative elections are obtained.     

The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of M1

restored a stable specification for M1 demand using an error-correction model which allowed for learning about new assets and incorporated a volatility term in long-term interest rates. Our study replicated their in-sample results, but found that their model completely breaks down over longer sample periods. We argue that this predictive failure could have been anticipated by sensitivity analysis. Their specification appears to have underestimated the interest rate elasticity of money demand because of the learning-adjustment mechanism. Our results also call into question their basic use of volatility in narrow money demand models.     

从扩大开放到制度型开放：对外开放平台的演进与升级

在“进口替代—出口导向—高水平对外开放”的战略转换中,改革开放后我国对外开放平台建设经历了“局部开放—全面开放—制度型开放”三个阶段,在政策和时间维度上从扩大开放向制度型开放演进,在空间格局上从东部率先开放向东西协同开放进化,在主要功能上从单一（如出口加工区）向复合（如自由贸易试验区）拓展。对外开放平台的建设历程反映了我国国际分工地位的转变和开放制度的演化,不仅形成了从沿海到内陆全方位、多领域、深层次的对外开放格局,还推动塑造了不同阶段国内区域经济发展的空间格局。中国的制度型开放不同于以美国为代表的国内制度国际化模式和以日韩为代表的对接国际经贸规则模式,具有突出的包容性特征。应以中国特色制度型开放推进对外开放平台建设转型升级：积极开展先行先试,构建高水平的制度型对外开放平台体系;推动多区叠加和东西合作,促进对外开放平台红利溢出;深化对外开放平台的跨境合作,维护多元稳定的国际经贸关系;加快制度创新成果的复制推广,强化对外开放平台以点带面的功能和优势。     

基于波动效应与价格发现的期指仿真交易研究

沪深300股指期货仿真交易的推出,对我国现货市场的影响如何以及这种影响是否有利于现货效率的改进。首次采用修正的GARCH模型和向量误差修正模型（VEC）将股指期货推出后现货市场波动性的变化和股指期货与现货市场的价格发现功能结合起来进行对比研究。结果表明,期指仿真交易的推出对于现货市场效率的改进确实存在正面的影响。其引入在短期内加大了现货市场的波动,但这一波动正是市场信息流动加速的反映,因而提高了市场信息的传递效率。同时期货价格领先于现货价格,存在由期货市场到现货市场长期的单向因果关系,说明期货价格具有引导现货价格向均衡方向调整的功能,从而在经验上支持了股指期货市场的开放政策。     

公司透明度与股价波动同步性的相关性研究

本文选取2001-2007年在深交所上市的所有A股上市公司为研究样本,以深交所的信息披露评级指标作为公司信息透明度的度量指标,在此基础上,考察公司透明度对股价波动同步性的影响。实证结果表明,随着公司信息透明度的改善,股价同波动性不断下降,但各信用评级等级之间的股价同波动性差异并不高。本文给出了可能的分析解释,并指出了下一步深入研究的方向。     

我国投资者情绪与股票收益实证研究

根据投资者情绪是股票价格形成重要影响因素这一研究观点,围绕投资者情绪是否构成系统性风险及其对不同类型股票的差异化影响,运用我国股市交易数据进行的实证研究结果表明,投资者情绪不构成股市的系统性风险,但对不同市值的股票有着差异化的影响,随着股票的"投机性"增加,投资者情绪对其影响也增大.此外,投资者情绪会削弱股票收益与其波动的正相关性,且对于"投机性"越高的股票,这一影响也越大.