Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.     

Nonresponse in Contingent Valuation-reducing uncertainty in value inference

This paper focuses on problems associated with nonresponse in Contingent Valuation surveys. The results from a telephone follow-up survey show that value inference can be considerably improved by information on nonrespondents' attitudes.     

中国金融控股公司发展模式的新制度经济学分析

随着区域经济一体化和金融全球化的加强,金融控股公司混业经营所带来的规模经济性日趋强化,从而成为金融业发展的一种重要组织形式,从本质上反映了各国金融业和政府制度面向新的前景而作出的相应战略性调整,初步展开了21世纪世界银行业的市场结构与竞争态势。这种态势为中国金融业的发展和中国金融控股公司模式的选择提出了外在的要求。同时,中国的金融业将在WTO的框架下融入全球金融市场,中国的金融业也要走向世界,在国际金融市场上成长壮大,这就要求中国金融业必须与国际惯例接轨。     

论我国上市公司董事会治理结构存在的问题与对策

我国上市公司董事会治理在董事会机构、董事会会议、独立董事、董事会外部制约机制等方面都存在一定问题.解决的对策是:增强董事会的独立性,改变大股东完全控制董事会的局面;加强独立董事制度建设,营造独立董事充分行权的环境;加强对董事的违规处罚力度,强化董事的诚信意识;建立科学合理的董事会考评机制.对于董事会的考核可以从两方面去进行:一方面是对董事会的整体考评,另一方面是对董事个人的考核.我国可以借鉴美国的考核评估方法,由非投资相关者专门针对董事会进行考核评估.     

Provision Point Mechanisms and Field Validity Tests of Contingent Valuation

Past field validity tests of contingent valuation have relied on voluntary contribution mechanisms to elicit actual willingness to pay, and may overestimate hypothetical bias because of free riding in the actual contributions. This paper argues that provision point mechanisms are a preferred alternative for field validity tests of contingent valuation because they increase the proportion of demand revealed in cases in which public goods can be provided in a step function. The results of a contingent valuation validity study of participation in a green electricity pricing program that uses a provision point mechanism are reported, and hypothetical open-ended and dichotomous choice responses are compared to actual participation. Calibration of hypothetical responses is also explored.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.     

Researching Preferences,Valuation and Hypothetical Bias

A number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences – agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty. This issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation (CV) as well as the debate over the divergence between WTP and WTA. In the context of CV, it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses. This paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate. The model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate. The first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value (researching preferences). The second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical – that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid. The experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (hypotheticalness, information costs and number of agents) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid). Experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid.      

Stated Preferences, Real Behaviour and Anchoring: Some Empirical Evidence

We compare different contingent valuation question formats with each other and with observed behaviour for a non-monetary estimation task, the expected number of kilometers travelled by automobile. Open-ended questions, open-ended follow-up questions, dichotomous choice (DC) questions, and double-bound DC questions are included. The single and double-bound DC questions result in an estimated mean about twice as high as the actual value and the open-ended mean. The DC question overestimation seems to be due to an anchoring effect leading to yea-saying behaviour. Our results about the difference between DC questions and open-ended questions is consistent with the pattern observed in contingent valuations studies of the willingness to pay. Our results indicates that DC questions seem to be associated with a general overestimation problem that is present even for simple non-monetary estimation tasks.     

生态系统服务与生态系统管理研究

生态系统管理的研究是当前生态学研究的热点,生态系统服务(包括生态服务功能的价值评估)是生态系统管理研究的重要部分。本文从笔者的研究实践提出了区域生态系统管理研究的四项主要内容,分析了生态系统服务在生态系统管理研究中的作用,同时阐述了笔者在生态系统服务功能及其价值评估研究中的探索。