Retirement and health services utilization in a low-income country*

We estimate the causal effects of retirement on health services utilization in Vietnam. Using authorized retirement ages as instruments for exogenous changes in retirement, we find positive and strong effects of retirement on outpatient health services in the public health sector. Retirement increases the probability of an outpatient visit by 51 percentage points for males and 36 percentage points for females, and the frequency of outpatient visits by 1.4 times for males and 2 times for females. However, we find no effect on the use of public inpatient services as well as private health services.     

Shifting from pay-as-you-go to individual retirement accounts: A path to a sustainable pension system

With aging demographics and generous pension programs, the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) public pension system has been often questioned and has motivated policymakers to enact reforms in many countries. Although mandatory funded Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) appear to be a solution to this unsustainable system, existing reforms usually take place within the PAYG system by reducing pension benefits. This paper evaluates the effects of PAYG reforms as well as reforms that switch to the IRA system. Our analysis shows that PAYG reforms outperform IRA reforms in many aspects. In fact, PAYG reforms achieve higher GDP and yield higher welfare in the long run. The transition to the steady state is also found to be less volatile for PAYG reforms. While PAYG generally places a larger burden on future generations, the positive welfare effect of cross-subsidization dominates the welfare loss. Our findings may explain why pension reform is a controversial issue in most countries and why we rarely observe a shift to the IRA system.     

An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.     

Ownership of individual retirement accounts – an empirical analysis based on SHARE

This paper examines the household retirement saving decisions in what concerns to the ownership of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in eight European Union (EU) countries. IRAs are more and more seen as an alternative to public pension benefits, which are decreasing. Therefore, understanding the enrolment in IRAs, both the socio-economic factors and over time, is most important. Detailed empirical analysis of the factors that might influence the ownership of IRAs is presented based on Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), using data from Wave 2 (2006–2007) and Wave 4 (2010–2011). Further, to analyse the impact of legal retirement age in the ownership of IRAs, two subsamples are considered: people aged between 50 and 64 years old (50–64 years) and people aged 65 or over (≥ 65 years). The results suggest that age, years of education, income and ownership of dwelling influence positively and significantly household saving, while number of children, marital status and risk aversion have a negative effect. Marital status and income are not statistically significant for retired people. Policy implications are derived.     

Social Transfer Benefits and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from South Africa

Population aging poses a new challenge to the fiscal sustainability of social security programs around the globe. As life expectancy increases, among other reasons, many governments in developed countries have begun to reform key features of their programs, such as increasing the eligibility age for access to social benefits. However, as in the case of South Africa, some opt to decrease the eligibility age for access to such pension benefits. The South African old age pension, which is one of the most expansive cash transfers in developing countries, puts a significant monthly cash transfer in the hands of its recipients. This cash transfer is conditioned on age and a means test that is very generous to most South Africans. In this paper, we seek to understand the impact of such an increase in non‐labour income on the labour force participation of older men by exploiting a phased‐in reduction in pension eligibility age. We estimate that, at the median predicted market wage, pension age‐eligibility reduces the probability of labour force participation by approximately 9.85% points for single males and 15.45% points for married males.     

Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth

We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an OLG model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to work and at which they retire. Endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on per-capita growth. The long-term relationship between fertility and per-capita growth is hump-shaped. Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish. Solving numerically the equilibrium, demographic changes can have important medium-term effects even if long-term changes are very small. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 041, I20, J10.     

As you like it: Explaining the popularity of life‐cycle funds with multi cumulative prospect theory

Life‐cycle (or target‐date) funds are funds, which typically decrease their risk exposure over time. They have been very successful in many countries, particularly in the segment of old age provision. However, Expected Utility Theory (EUT) cannot explain their popularity. Moreover, recent results of Graf (2016), imply that not only EUT but also its behavioral counterpart Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is often not able to explain the popularity of these products, since for each life‐cycle fund a corresponding balanced fund can be constructed, which is preferable from the investor's perspective in most circumstances. In a recent paper, Ruß and Schelling (2018), have argued that potential future changes in an investment's value already impact the decision of long‐term investors at outset. Based on this, they have introduced Multi Cumulative Prospect Theory (MCPT), which is based on CPT and considers the subjective utility generated by annual value changes. This paper shows that for MCPT‐investors, life‐cycle funds are typically more attractive than their corresponding balanced funds since they reduce the potential losses toward the end of the investment horizon. Hence, our findings provide an explanation for inferior decisions in old age provision. This can serve as a basis to improve such decisions.     

新型农村社会养老保险制度的微观解析——以苏北农村为例

新型农村社会养老保险采取个人缴费、集体补助、政府补贴相结合的原则,政府角色从原来的"政策指导"转变为"财政补贴",除了可以直接提高参保农民的退休消费比例外,还具有不可忽视的间接效应,即增强农民对国家制度的信心,刺激农民积极参保并提高个人缴费比例,从而可改善农民养老待遇普遍偏低的局面.另外,从国家角度出发,提高账户给付利率是鼓励农民参保、加强新型农村社会养老保险制度可持续性的一个关键性因素.     

优化民族地区农村家庭养老资源供给的思考——兼论与经济增长的关系

民族地区农村家庭少子化导致高储蓄与高教育投资并行,弱化了家庭对老人的经济反哺能力;空巢化、隔代化危及老人的生活照料和精神慰藉;家庭养老供给面临困境的同时也阻碍了农村经济增长。利用正外部性理论和弹性理论分析可以凸显家庭外部途径优化养老资源供给的必要性,从而得出应构建政府、社区、家庭三方驱动的养老支持力相容系统和养老保障机制。     

Active and Adjusted: Investigating the Contribution of Leisure,Health and Psychosocial Factors to Retirement Adjustment

Engagement in leisure activities during retirement and its relationship to retirement adjustment were investigated. Psychosocial mediators included mastery, self-efficacy for retirement (SE-R) and activities (SE-A), positive (PA) and negative affect (NA). Resources investigated included physical health and finances. Leisure activities examined were social, home entertainment, chores, light exercise, vigorous exercise, and education. Data were gathered from a sample consisting of 243 retirees. Direct predictors of retirement adjustment included finances, health, mastery, SE-R and SE-A. Social activities were the best predictor of a wide range of positive outcomes, including PA, mastery, SE-R and SE-A. Educational activities improved SE-R. Being involved in a broader range of activities was associated with PA, mastery and SE-A. Familiarity and enjoyment of activities were implicated in the maintenance and continuation of activities at post-retirement. Research findings have implications for aged-care and other retirement service providers, as well as for individuals.