Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators

This study examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and validity of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) for 24 OECD countries. While the OLSEG, ML system, and OLSGH estimates of the model do not provide support, the GMM, DOLS, and NLLS estimates provide consistent support for the sustainability of CADs across most countries. The estimates of the model with multiple structural breaks reinforce the sustainability of CADs. The results provide dominant support for the sustainability of CADs and validity of IBC across most countries. The CADs are only short-run phenomena and are balanced by future surpluses.     

Do economic institutions matter for trade liberalization? Evidence from China’s Open Door Policy

Trade liberalization can promote export by inducing better resource allocation and more advanced technologies. Although the literature emphasizes the mechanism of geographic proximity, this paper identifies an institutional effect. Using infant mortality rate as an instrument that is irrelevant to export and geographic effects, we confirm that the openness due to China’s Open Door Policy promotes firm exports. We further document that the positive relationship between openness and firm exports is mediated by property rights protection and corporate autonomy, either of which reflects institutional quality at the constraint on the government’s strategic behavior. In particular, our estimates are robust to different samples, different estimation methods, and endogeneity bias.     

Trading activities,productivity and markups: Evidence for Spanish manufacturing

This work analyses the firms' internationalisation strategies of importing intermediates and exporting output, and the potential rewards of these activities in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), as a proxy for marginal costs, and markups. It further deepens into the study of the relationship between internationalisation strategies and markups by disentangling whether it operates through affecting firms' marginal costs and/or firms' prices. The panel database employed in this paper is the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006–14. Results in the paper distinguish between SMEs and large firms and indicate that there is high persistence in the performance of these activities and in firms' TFP and markups. For SMEs, we obtain rewards from importing inputs as well as exporting output in terms of TFP and markups. For large firms, we obtain rewards in TFP from the importing activity and rewards in markups from the exporting activity. Finally, we find evidence that the effects of internationalisation strategies on markups are due to both a price channel and a marginal cost channel.     

去工业化、技术差距与产业转移的技术溢出效应

中西部承接产业转移缺乏显著的正向技术溢出效应，成为2000年后区际技术差距持续扩大以及近年部分地区过早去工业化的关键影响因素之一。利用2001~2017年全国30个省（市）面板数据研究证实，各地区技术水平与工业增加值在地区生产总值中的份额之间存在显著正相关性；中西部在2005~2014年承接了较大规模产业转移，而区际技术差距却持续扩大，技术溢出效应显著为负。在相对偏低的技术水平条件下，中西部地区在十余年的产业承接中主要依赖于廉价的要素成本优势，其自主创新能力、创新资源积累已不足以抵御本地消费升级、要素成本上升与国际需求疲软等负面因素的叠加影响。最终，技术差距、商品及服务净输出赤字的扩大至少加快了部分欠发达地区的去工业化。     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

Technological content of exports

A large body of literature argues that the characteristics of exports matter for economic growth and development because some goods trigger positive externalities or are subject to increasing returns. Thus, for policy purposes, it is important to know whether a country’s export basket enjoys these productive opportunities. They have been associated with technological content of exports. However, measuring them is not easy. Previous methodologies to account for exports’ technological content used either R&;D data or trade data. The former is used to account for knowledge-intensive activities during the production phase and the latter to identify levels of ‘sophistication’ of exports based on exporting countries’ characteristics. Building on these contributions, this paper combines industry-based and product-based indicators to circumvent some of the shortcomings of the received literature, including the product-industry controversy (i.e. are the actual activities during the production process or the product characteristics what better accounts exports’ technological content?). We use data from Uruguay on direct and indirect R&;D spending from public and private sources and also trade data to build the sophistication index corrected by quality. We contrast our findings with existing methodologies to highlight our contribution.     

外资企业的要素属权结构与出口增加值的收益归属

在生产全球化的时代大背景下,外资企业积极参与一国的生产和出口,并从所在国的出口中获取收益。外资企业的出口增加值中既包括了本国要素所产生的增加值,也包括了外国要素所产生的增加值,形成了外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构。研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构,一方面,有助于学术界理解外国要素流入对于本国要素出口增加值的拉动效应;另一方面,有利于学术界厘清外国要素流入所形成的要素收益分配效应。本文运用微观企业数据测算发现:2000—2013年在外资加工出口企业中,中国属权要素出口增加值占属地出口增加值的平均比重为65.85%,两者之间的平均背离程度为34.15%。本文进一步运用区分异质性企业的投入产出表进行测算发现:2012年在外资加工贸易企业和非加工贸易企业出口中,中国属权要素出口增加值与属地要素出口增加值的背离相对值分别为30.13%和25.32%。本文认为属地出口增加值已经不能充分反映外资企业出口中的本国要素收益,研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构有利于学术界认识增加值贸易中国内要素的实际收益,也可以为一国政府的对外贸易谈判提供科学依据。     

碳关税壁垒对我国工业品出口的影响及对策研究

全球环境的恶化使人们越来越关注碳排放问题,发达国家正在考虑通过对不实施减排的国家征收碳关税。从碳关税提出的背景出发,阐述低碳经济背景下碳关税壁垒的相关特征,运用局部均衡法分析碳关税对我国整体的影响,同时也运用可计算的一般均衡模型测算不同的碳关税对我国工业品出口影响的程度。通过分析发现碳关税的征收将对我国经济和贸易产生重大影响,建议我国企业要顺应低碳经济发展趋势,加快研究和发展低碳经济。     

国际购买力平价和简化净出口函数:中国实证

文章从国际交换价值的角度研究了一价定律的内涵,提出了国际购买力平价理论,并且证明了国际购买力平价是严格意义上的均衡汇率。2009年人民币贸易品购买力平价为6.70元人民币/美元,而国际购买力为5.49元人民币/美元,后者可作为确定人民币汇率处于均衡水平的参考。文章还简化了净出口函数,得出如下主要结论:(1)近年我国的贸易顺差大幅增长,主要是因为价格贸易条件恶化,其次是因为J曲线效应;(2)当前的首要任务是改善我国的价格贸易条件以提高国际购买力平价,而不是调整人民币汇率。     

广西进出口贸易分析与对策的实证研究

广西对外贸易的快速增长很大程度上推动了其经济的增长。基于广西2006～2009年统计年鉴数据,采用统计分组、综合指标和归纳推断等方法对广西进出口贸易进行了实证分析,阐述了进出口贸易中存在的问题并提出了相应的对策和建议。