The Impact of Regret on Exports

We examine optimal production and export decisions of a firm facing exchange rate uncertainty, where the firm's management is not only risk averse but also regret averse, i.e., is characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex post suboptimal alternatives. Experimental and empirical results support the view that managers tend to be regret averse. Under regret aversion a negative risk premium need not preclude the firm from exporting which would be the case if the firm were only risk averse. Exporting creates an implicit hedge against the possibility of regret when the realized spot exchange rate turns out to be high. The regret‐averse firm as such has a greater ex ante incentive to export than the purely risk averse firm. Finally, we use a two‐state example to illustrate that the firm optimally exports more (less) to the foreign country than in the case of pure risk aversion if the low (high) spot exchange rate is more likely to prevail. Regret aversion as such plays a crucial role in determining the firm's optimal allocation between domestic sales and foreign exports.     

Russian agriculture during Putin’s fourth term: a SWOT analysis

Russian agriculture is coming off a successful period under Minister Alexander Tkachev. Despite his successes, new agricultural leaders were named in May 2018 to guide agriculture during Putin’s fourth term. The article analyses the condition of and prospects for the agricultural sector during 2018–2024, using a SWOT framework (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). The analysis examines four strengths, six weaknesses, four opportunities and three threats.     

Multinationals without Advantages

We question the widespread argument that firms embarking on foreign direct investments must possess some specific advantages to offset the penalties of operating across national and cultural boundaries. A simple model shows that firms might invest abroad to capture local advantages through geographical proximity of plant location, rather than to exploit existing ones. Because of spatially bounded spillovers, laggard firms might use foreign investments to acquire location-specific knowledge, whereas leading firms might prefer costly exports to avoid the dissipation of their advantages.
JEL classification: F 23; O 32; L 22     

The growing importance of the former USSR countries in world agricultural markets

The major countries of the former Soviet Union—specifically Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—are becoming increasingly important in world agricultural markets. The two main developments are that this region has become a large grain exporter, especially of wheat and barley, and Russia a big agricultural importer, especially of meat. These trends should continue for the next decade. However, policies to expand the livestock sector could mitigate these developments, as increased domestic meat production would reduce both meat imports and surplus feed grain for export. Also, further growth in the region's grain exports will require improvement in the infrastructure for storing and transporting grain.     

人民币双边实际汇率与中国对美出口的实证研究

本文通过建立人民币双边实际汇率与中国对美出口的分析模型,运用协整分析、误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数进行实证研究。结果表明:期望通过人民币升值来解决中美贸易失衡问题的愿望很难有效实现,近年来中国对美出口的大幅增长是与美国自身经济发展的需求有较大关联的,而且这种需求有逐渐增强的趋势;短期内,对美出口的增长远胜于通过人民币升值所期望减少的出口;美国国民收入水平有拉动人民币升值的潜在作用。     

Commodity price stabilisation: macroeconomic impacts and policy options

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export tree crop industry in Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). CPS policy has failed to stabilise the macroeconomy. The price stabilisation policies are no longer appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view. Technical change, futures market and rural savings are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk.     

内需的扩大是增加还是减少出口？——基于异质企业视角的理论模型和实证研究

中国的贸易失衡表现为巨大的贸易顺差,有一种观点认为扩大内需可以减少出口,降低贸易失衡。本文在考虑企业异质性的基础上,对中国制造企业内需能否促进出口的作用进行了理论和实证分析。理论模型预测,如果企业生产率足够高,可以进行贸易,企业内需的增加总能促进出口数量和出口额的增加,且贸易成本的减小会促进这种效应。我们运用中国工业企业数据对这一推论进行了实证研究。我们首先利用半参数估计的Olley和Pakes(OP)方法估计企业生产率,然后控制企业生产率、企业要素禀赋、行业固定效应、地区固定效应和企业所有制的影响进行计量分析。实证结果发现,出口企业内需的扩大显著促进了企业的出口,而且处于规模经济行业的企业的这种作用更为显著,东部地区企业和国有企业的国内销售对出口的作用也高于其他地区和其他企业。另外,本文对不同出口规模的企业应用分位数回归方法发现,企业出口规模越大,企业内需对出口的作用越显著。     

A league of their own: services exporters – a developing country perspective

This paper provides a firm-level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm-level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003–2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only while multinationals that sell only goods are bigger than multinationals exporting both goods and services or those exporting only services.     

浙江省农产品国际竞争力的实证分析

本文分析了浙江省农产品贸易的发展现状和特点,并运用国际市场占有率(MS)、贸易竞争力指数(TC)、显性比较优势指数(RCA)对浙江省农产品国际竞争力进行实证测度,分析了浙江省现阶段农产品国际竞争力现状和变化趋势,表明浙江省农产品参与国际贸易的力度不够,发展潜力巨大,并就此提出了提升浙江省农产品国际竞争力的对策建议。     

Who rides the tide of regionalization: Examining the effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the exports of Chinese firms

This study draws on the institutional economics and the resource-based view to examine the impact of regional institutional changes on firm exports. Specifically, we utilize the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area as our research context. Our difference-in-difference analysis of a four-year panel of 700 Chinese listed firms lends support to our arguments that (1) regional institutional changes aimed at increasing economic incentives for intraregional business exchanges will stimulate firm exports in the regional market and that (2) private firms, more technologically competent firms, and firms with richer regional exporting experience are affected more strongly by this institutional influence.