外部需求冲击对中国出口的影响

中国经济增长的特殊模式使得其容易受到外部经济表现的影响,其中外需冲击是重要的渠道。实证结果表明,中国出口一方面为外部需求所拉动,另一方面其竞争力体现为成本优势。在前期出口成本上升和目前中国的主要出口市场相继进入衰退的情况下,为稳定出口增长,中国应在短期适度回调出口退税率和稳定人民币升值幅度,在长期致力于技术进步。     

Rice Price under Pressure

Early in April, the FOB (Free on Board) value of rice exported from Bangkok, Thailand, the biggest rice exporter of the world, surged to a new high of US$730per ton, representing an increase of 70 percent in recent years, and setting a new record over the past 34 years of Thailand rice exports.     

China's Auto Industry Steps Forward

Last year,the volume of China's auto trade reached US$66.878 bil- lion,of which imports accounted for US$25.982 billion,a year-on- year increase of 24.45 percent;while ex- ports totaled US$40.896 billion,growing by 45.31 percent.The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers(CAAM) predicts that the number of autos sold in 2008 will break the 1 million barrier for the first time in history,representing an increase of about 20 percent.     

Export Rebates on Grain Finished

A ccording to the State Statistics Bureau, China＇s consumer price index（CPI） jumped by 6.9 percent year-on-year last November, approaching the high levels seen at the end of 1996, one of the largest areas of increase was the price of grain, which rose by 6.6 percent.     

Why has China’s vertical specialization declined?

Vertical specialization (VS) is quantified by the VS share, which measures the average import content per dollar of exports. A characteristic of China’s export trade is its strong dependence on assembly and processing activities. To take proper account of this, China’s VS shares should explicitly distinguish processing export production from other production. We estimate China’s annual VS shares from 2000 to 2012—the latest year for which a special input–output table is available that makes such an explicit distinction. We find that VS shares increased from 2000 to 2004 and subsequently started to decrease. To explore why it has declined, we introduce a new structural decomposition approach. We find that the decrease of the VS share appears to have been driven mainly by the substitution of imported intermediates by domestic products. This occurred in particular in the production of exports, which implies an upgrading of China’s position in global value chains.     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

Determinants of Visitors’ Intentions to Consume and Recommend Local Agro-Food Products

Previous research has revealed the relevance of consuming local food products in the visitor experience and in maintaining the sustainable development of tourism destinations. By reviewing the available studies in the field of tourism, attempts have been made to identify those factors influencing the consumption of local food products during a trip. However, few studies have analysed visitors’ behaviour in terms of their intentions to search for and recommend these products after returning to their home countries. The present study addresses this gap by analysing the factors that influence visitors’ intentions. A total of 500 international tourists in Portugal were interviewed and several linear regression models were used. The evaluation shows that the attributes of local agro-food products, food-related personality traits, and the motivations behind consuming these kinds of products emerge as the most important factors that influence visitors’ intentions to consume these products and to recommend them after a trip. However, the results also show differences in the determinants in terms of type of local agro-food product under analysis, as well as differences between the intention to consume and the intention to recommend. The theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are also presented.     

High-Tech Exports from Developing Countries: A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion?

Specialization in high-tech products is frequently used to capture technological intensity of exports. A number of developing countries are among the most deeply specialized countries in exports of these products. The paper shows that the bulk of high-tech exports can actually be attributed to the effect of international fragmentation of production in electronics on trade statistics. It is confirmed in an econometric framework that while indigenous technological capabilities are associated with export performance in electronics, it is the propensity to import electronics components that accounts for by far the largest proportion of cross-country differences in specialization in electronics exports. JEL no. F10, O10, O30     

石化通用机械进出口及其相关政策走向

石化通用机械行业2003年-2006年进出口连年增长.2007年出口继续快速增长,各主要产品进口有增有减.政策调整将对石化通用机械进出口产生影响.部分产品出口退税率下调.国内投资项目中有154种设备进口不予免税.国家鼓励进口6种石化通用机械.重大技术装备关键件进口实行先征税后返回优惠政策.人民币对美元的汇率升值将会继续,有关企业要积极应对.     

Trade Liberalization and China’s Exports of Renewable Energy Products: Evidence from Product Level Data

Using a large panel dataset that covers 116 countries and 62 renewable energy products over the period 2000–2012, this study evaluates the effects of trade liberalization on the export expansion of China’s renewable energy products. The results reveal that trade liberalization plays a crucial role in encouraging the exports of renewable energy products. Specifically, tariff reduction, in general, not only encourages the entry into new export markets, but also induces an increase in the volume of renewable energy products already traded. In addition, the positive effects of trade liberalization are more pronounced for foreign-owned exporters than for state-owned or privately-owned exporters. Also, the ways in which trade liberalization promotes exports of renewable energy products differ by the type, destination or origin of the renewable goods being exported.