我国能耗监测管理现状及未来发展趋势

适应节能形势发展的新变化,能耗监测的内涵也正在逐步延伸。实践表明,建立有效的能耗监测管控体系,对于提高能效、推进节能减排作用明显。近年来我国能耗监测管理得到了不同程度的改善,但在管理理念、制度安排、技术创新、资金支持等方面还存在着较多问题。利用信息技术,建立能耗在线实时监测管理体系,将成为未来能耗监测的发展目标。适应这种发展要求,我国需要在计量设备基础管理、能耗监测考核制度、监测机构设置和人员培训、资金渠道等方面进行不断创新。     

全球海运铁矿石市场承压解析与行业影响

世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。     

业绩考核制度如何影响央企现金持有?——基于《考核办法》第三次修订的准自然实验

本文基于2010—2017年我国A股上市公司数据,以十八大后推行的业绩考核办法优化修订为准自然实验,选用双重差分模型检验2013年新的《考核办法》实施对中央企业的现金持有的影响,研究发现:与不受该制度影响的民营企业相比,新的《考核办法》显著正向提升央企的现金持有水平,且这一结果均通过平行趋势、控制组调整、变量替换、PSM-DID和安慰剂检验等稳健性检验;通过机制分析发现,业绩考核制度通过发挥抑制央企因超额持现所诱发的过度投资而提升央企现金持有;进一步地,业绩考核还促使央企权衡增持的现金资源二次配置策略,缩减超额持现的股利支付且转而将其用于创新活动,进而提升中央企业现金持有价值。上述结果意味着,业绩考核制度既可以抑制过度投资的无效耗费行为促使央企增持现金,又将增持现金用于“多创新,少股利”的长期价值创造权衡配置,优化增持现金利用效率,提高企业创新能力,进而提升企业价值,这为十八大以来有关中央企业高质发展和国资监管体制建设而进行改革的政策预期效果提供经验证据,同时为进一步全面深化国资监管、积极深入推进业绩考核制度优化修订提供理论依据和经验证据。     

论历史逻辑

历史逻辑是以历史时间的历时性和共时性统一为基础的概念推论，研究关于叙述史中基本概念之间的意义关系和推论规则。过去、现在和未来是历史逻辑的基本范畴，“过去-现在-未来”三段式是历史逻辑的基本公式，它是概念逻辑推论三段式“正题-反题-合题”在历史逻辑中的具体形式。历史逻辑研究的目的，是根据特定历史时段的特殊性，建构以不同时段概念为逻辑变项的历史逻辑，预见未来的发展，规划现在的实践。     

Which Net Capital Flows Matter?

This article classifies extreme net capital flow episodes into four types and analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of each type. First, we find that all types of episodes increased drastically in the 2000s relative to previous years. Second, we conclude that liability-flow-driven episodes have more significant macroeconomic impacts than do asset-flow-driven episodes. Third, we show that only drastic positive net capital flows that were driven by liability flows were associated with a higher probability of banking crises in the 2000s. The results suggest that the detailed classification of extreme net capital flows provides insight into these movements’ macroeconomic impacts and policy implementations.     

Does international capital flow lead to a housing boom? A time-varying evidence from China

This paper examines the causal relationship between the housing prices (HP) and the international capital flows (ICF) in China. With structural changes existing, we find that long-run relationship using full-sample data is unstable, suggesting that traditional Granger causality test is not reliable. However, we further find an unstable short-run relationship between ICF and HP when assessing the stability of the parameters and there are bidirectional causal relationships between ICF and HP for several sub-periods. Additionally, our findings indicate both positive and negative bidirectional causal relations between the series. Based on the arbitrage of ICF, the results suggest that the rise of Chinese HP is the underlying force for the inflows of international capital. Meanwhile, a surge in capital inflows may be accompanied by a rise in the price of housing. This confirms the theoretical analysis that there is an interconnected transmission mechanism between the ICF and the HP, which is diverse and depends both on the flow of ICF and on other factors.     

虚拟集群式旅游供应链模型构建研究

文章基于旅游供应链理论研究动态与现代信息技术发展态势,提出以信息拉动式为特征的在线旅游供应链(e-tourism supply chain)的理念。从集群式供应链视角,分析了虚拟集群式旅游供应链建立的动因,构建了虚拟集群式旅游供应链理论模型。文章通过创新旅游供应链研究视角,借鉴产业集群与供应链管理耦合研究理论,试图在赛博空间(Cyberspace)里,构建起虚拟集群式旅游供应链的理论框架,可分成4个部分:(1)旅游者信息链,是围绕着每个旅游者需求信息的一条"信息拉动式供应链",在此基础上形成旅游企业旅游服务大规模定制链;(2)旅游服务定制链,旅游企业在以"旅游者"为中心的信息链上提供即时响应、即时采购、即时生产、即时销售的敏捷制造服务,同业性旅游企业合作服务于旅游者;(3)信息共享平台,包括旅游者需求汇集、统计、分流平台,旅游企业沟通平台和旅游评价平台;(4)专业化辅助企业,具有弹性专精的优势,缓解大规模标准通用化服务提供和市场的定制化随机要求(stochastic demand)之间的矛盾,满足了旅游者对定制化旅游服务需求。     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

Time orientation and construal level: effects on eating and exercising behaviour and preferences

Eating and exercising behaviour are both characterized by immediate and future consequences. Consequently, consideration of these consequences (i.e. time orientation) predicts eating and exercising behaviour. We investigate whether construal level acts as an underlying mechanism of these relations. Students (N = 101) completed measures of consideration of immediate and future consequences (i.e. CFC‐food and CFC‐exercise), construal level, eating and exercising behaviour and preferences. For self‐reported eating and exercising behaviour, only direct effects of consideration of immediate and future consequences were found. For eating preferences, however, there was evidence of an indirect effect through construal level. A stronger tendency to consider future consequences led to a stronger preference for utilitarian (as compared with hedonic) food products through a more abstract construal level. All in all, construal level partially explains the differential relations between consideration of immediate and future consequences and eating and exercising behaviour and preferences.     

Do the poor benefit from globalization regardless of institutional quality?

Despite significant progress towards the Millennium goals, more than one billion people live on less than 1.25 US dollars per day. Previous research suggests that globalization stimulates poverty reduction, but does not investigate what role institutions play in this relationship. Theoretically, globalization could act as either a complement or a substitute to institutional quality in reducing poverty. We find that the poverty-reducing effect of globalization is stronger when institutions are weak. In particular, increasing social globalization reduces poverty more when corruption is high and democratic accountability is low. Thus, globalization has the power to reduce poverty even in countries with low institutional quality.