An International Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Hedging Risk

This paper employs a two-factor international equilibrium asset pricing model to examine the pricing relationships among the world's five largest equity markets. In addition to the traditional market factor premium, a hedging factor premium is included as the second factor to explain the relationship between risks and returns in the international stock markets. Moreover, a GARCH parameterization is adopted to characterize the general dynamics of the conditional second moments. The results suggest that the additional hedging risk premium is needed to explain rates of return on international equities. Furthermore, the restriction that the coefficient on the hedge-portfolio covariance is one smaller than the coefficient on the market-portfolio covariance can not be rejected. This suggests that the intertemporal asset pricing model proposed by Campbell (1993) can be used to explain the returns on the five largest stock market indices.     

Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions

This paper applies a Diagonal BEKK model to investigate the risk spillovers of three major cryptocurrencies to ten leading traditional currencies and two gold prices (Spot Gold and Gold Futures). The daily data used are from 7 August 2015 to 15 June 2020. The dataset is analyzed in its entirety and is also subdivided into four distinct subsets in order to study and compare the patterns of spillover effects during economic turmoil, such as the 2018 cryptocurrency crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results reveal significant co-volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrency and traditional currency or gold markets, especially during the whole sample period and amid the uncertainty raised by COVID-19. The capabilities of cryptocurrency are time-varying and related to economic uncertainty or shocks. There are significant differences between normal and extreme markets with regard to the capabilities of cryptocurrency as a diversifier, a hedge or a safe haven. We find the significant co-volatility spillover effects are asymmetric in most cases especially during the COVID-19 pandemic period, which means the negative return shocks have larger impacts on co-volatility than positive return shocks of the same magnitude. Evidently, cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies or gold can be incorporated into financial portfolios for financial market participants who seek effective risk management and also for optimal dynamic hedging purposes against economic turmoil and downward movements.     

Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?

We investigate whether commodity futures or options markets play a more important role in the price discovery process in the six most actively traded markets: crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, corn, and soybeans. Using new information leadership techniques, we report new evidence and report that both markets make a meaningful contribution to price discovery in recent times; however, on average, options lead futures in reflecting new information for a majority of these commodities. We find that increased speculation, rather than hedging activity, in commodity derivatives is a key determinant of price discovery in the options markets.     

Hedging and diversification across commodity assets

ABSTRACT

We investigate the conditional cross effects and volatility spillover between equity markets and commodity markets (oil and gold), Fama and French HML and SMB factors, volatility index (VIX) and bonds using different multivariate GARCH specifications considering the potential asymmetry and persistence behaviours. We analyse the dynamic conditional correlation between the US equity market and a set of commodity prices and risk factors to forecast the transmission of shock to the equity market firstly, and to determine and compare the optimal hedge ratios from the different models based on the hedging effectiveness of each model. Our findings suggest that all models confirm the significant returns and volatility spillovers. More importantly, we find that GO-GARCH is the best-fit model for modelling the joint dynamics of different financial variables. The results of the current study have implications for investors: (i) the equity market displays inverted dynamics with the volatility index suggesting strong evidence of diversification benefit; (ii) of the hedging assets gold appears the best hedge for the US equity market as it has a higher hedge effectiveness than oil and bonds over time; and (iii) despite these important results, a better hedge may be obtained by using well-selected firm sized and profitability-based portfolios.     

Hedging nontradable risks with transaction costs and price impact

A risk‐averse agent hedges her exposure to a nontradable risk factor U using a correlated traded asset S and accounts for the impact of her trades on both factors. The effect of the agent's trades on U is referred to as cross‐impact. By solving the agent's stochastic control problem, we obtain a closed‐form expression for the optimal strategy when the agent holds a linear position in U. When the exposure to the nontradable risk factor is nonlinear, we provide an approximation to the optimal strategy in closed‐form, and prove that the value function is correctly approximated by this strategy when cross‐impact and risk‐aversion are small. We further prove that when is nonlinear, the approximate optimal strategy can be written in terms of the optimal strategy for a linear exposure with the size of the position changing dynamically according to the exposure's “Delta” under a particular probability measure.     

Comparison of selective hedging and options strategies in cattle feedlot risk management

A cattle feedlot marketing simulation model was developed and used to evaluate the performance of various feedlot marketing strategies. The marketing analysis included corn, feeder cattle, and fed cattle integrated marketing alternatives. A variety of strategies were compared including hedging and put option purchasing as signaled via profit margins or price forecasts. The results indicate that cattle feeders could have historically increased profitability and decreased the variability of profits through selective marketing by using either profit margins or price forecasts to signal market positions as compared to cash marketing strategies. In addition, several strategies were found that stochastically dominated cash marketing.     

The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalization stock returns is carried out with inflation divided into expected and unexpected components. The analyses are undertaken using an error correction approach. In the long run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly private market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from those of stocks.

Pricing by hedging and no-arbitrage beyond semimartingales

We show that pricing a big class of relevant options by hedging and no-arbitrage can be extended beyond semimartingale models. To this end we construct a subclass of self-financing portfolios that contains hedges for these options, but does not contain arbitrage opportunities, even if the stock price process is a non-semimartingale of some special type. Moreover, we show that the option prices depend essentially only on a path property of the stock price process, viz. on the quadratic variation. We end the paper by giving no-arbitrage results even with stopping times for our model class.      

Hedging jet fuel price risk: The case of U.S. passenger airlines

Jet fuel accounts for a large portion of passenger airlines' operating costs, and airlines' earnings are susceptible to swings in the price of jet fuel. This study uses daily data over the past two decades to determine the minimum variance hedge ratio for airlines wishing to hedge jet fuel price risk with futures, while also establishing the best cross hedging asset. Airlines hedging with futures would create the most effective hedge by using heating oil futures contracts with a 3-month maturity. We also find that beyond the 3-month veil, increased time to maturity makes heating oil less effective as a cross hedge proxy for jet fuel. However, both in-sample analysis and Monte Carlo simulation results with daily data show that none of the 4 cross hedge proxies, including heating oil, can be considered highly effective.     

OPTION PRICING AND HEDGING WITH EXECUTION COSTS AND MARKET IMPACT

This paper considers the pricing and hedging of a call option when liquidity matters, that is, either for a large nominal or for an illiquid underlying asset. In practice, as opposed to the classical assumptions of a price‐taking agent in a frictionless market, traders cannot be perfectly hedged because of execution costs and market impact. They indeed face a trade‐off between hedging errors and costs that can be solved by using stochastic optimal control. Our modeling framework, which is inspired by the recent literature on optimal execution, makes it possible to account for both execution costs and the lasting market impact of trades. Prices are obtained through the indifference pricing approach. Numerical examples are provided, along with comparisons to standard methods.