中国当前通货膨胀形成原因经验研究:2003—2007年

2003年以来,我国新一轮通货膨胀具有结构性、非平衡性、温和性、不确定性和信念不一致性等特点。我国新一轮通货膨胀到目前为止,同时具有需求拉动通货膨胀和成本推动通货膨胀的特征,但流动性过剩对当前居民消费价格上涨的影响还不明显。因此,对我国当前通货膨胀进行治理应当着眼于当前通货膨胀的形成机制,而不是盲目实施紧缩性货币政策和财政政策。     

中国经济周期波动特征变化与宏观经济稳定政策

改革开放以来,尤其是20世纪90年代中期以来,我国经济周期波动特征发生了明显的变化,波动明显趋缓,非线性特征明显减弱,其原因可以归结为改革开放以来我国宏观经济稳定政策的出现以及财政和金融体制改革不断深化所带来的宏观经济稳定政策的制度基础、作用机制和作用工具的逐步完善。为了更好地应对未来可能出现的经济波动,确保经济平稳快速增长,就需要继续深化经济体制改革,消除制约我国宏观经济稳定政策效能发挥的制度障碍,并尽快构建适合我国国情的宏观经济稳定政策的完整理论体系。     

反倾销的跨国实证分析——基于宏观经济因素对反倾销立案影响的理解

本文基于15个国家1995－2004年反倾销的统计数据,通过模型分析以及实证研究,表明宏观经济因素对反倾销立案存在显著影响。文章依据GDP增长率、失业率、汇率及经常项目差额等相关数据,指出这些变量与反倾销立案数量显著相关,强调失业率的影响比GDP增长率更加显著。在发展中国家中,汇率对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较低,而经常项目差额对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较高。本文的分析在一定程度上给政府制定反倾销政策提供了相关参考价值。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2006—2007年

2006年中国宏观经济运行继续呈现高经济增长与低通货膨胀的良好配合态势,向加强宏观调控的预期方向稳步发展。2007年中国宏观经济管理应该采取中性的需求管理取向和“微撞”的需求管理模式,通过稳健财政政策和稳健货币政策的积极操作,保持国民经济持续快速增长。     

Macroeconomic policy regimes,real exchange rate overvaluation,and performance of the Brazilian economy (2003–2015)

The objective of this article is to present a review of the workings of the macroeconomic policy regimes in Brazil since 2003 in order to show that both the macroeconomic policy tripod and the new macroeconomic matrix were not capable of ensuring macroeconomic stability in the medium- to long term due to their incapacity to avoid a persistent overvaluation of the real exchange rate or to stop the increasing trend in primary expenditures/gross domestic product, which produced a major fiscal crisis in 2015.     

再生混凝土强度计算公式

再生骨料与天然骨料在物理和力学性能方面存在较大差异,前者所配制成的再生混凝土抗压强度—灰水比之间是否存在线性关系,需要试验进行验证。本文在再生粗骨料取代率(质量分数)分别为0%、50%和100%时,保持再生混凝土工作性能基本一致的条件下,进行15组混凝土配合比试验。试验结果表明再生混凝土抗压强度-灰水比之间大致成线性关系,进而提出再生混凝土强度计算公式。     

Where to implement local biotech innovations? A framework for multi-scale socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of Green Bio-Refineries

Green Bio-Refineries (GBRs) have economic and environmental potentials through changing land use from cereals to grass production and provision of grass-based protein feed for livestock production and other valuable byproducts. However, the potentials are dependent on local conditions of the GBRs, such as land productivity, environmental sensitivity and transport distances for feedstock as well as the regional economy which GBRs are a part of. In this paper, we compare the total (direct, indirect and induced) effects of different location choices of GBRs in Denmark at different (municipal, regional, national) scales − a key step for decisions about development of GBRs from both investors' and authorities' perspectives. We integrate a local life-cycle assessment (LCA), a geographic information system (GIS) analysis and an economic-environmental input-output (EEIO) based model (LINE) into a common framework (GIS-LCA-EEIO). We show that locating GBRs in Western Denmark, where the soils are primarily sandy and livestock densities are high, generates higher socio-economic gains than in Eastern Denmark, where the soils are primarily loamy and the concentrations of livestock are lower. We conclude by sketching out priority areas for developing GBRs and discuss the policy implications of the results within the context of development of a bio-based economy.     

Regional output growth and the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Mexico

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between national and regional output growth in Mexico, and the impact of domestic and international shocks on national, regional and state output movements. Our results suggest that there are similarities, but also significant differences, in real output dynamics across the regions and states of Mexico and that it would be wrong to regard the Mexican economy as a homogeneous entity. The results show that real output growth in Mexico and the United States are linked, but there is no common output trend for the two countries. At the regional level, it appears that North and Central Mexico share similar features, but the path of output growth is more distinctive in South Mexico. Overall, our results suggest that assessments of macroeconomic performance, and related discussions of policy, should pay greater attention to the potential diversity in regional performance.     

Data sources for the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates

In 2013, the Center for Financial Stability (CFS) initiated its Divisia monetary aggregates database, maintained within the CFS program called Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM), based on Barnett (1980, 2012). The CFS will soon be making available Divisia monetary aggregates extended to include the transactions services of credit cards. The extended aggregates will be called the augmented Divisia monetary aggregates and will be available to the public in monthly releases. The new aggregates will also be available to Bloomberg terminal users. The theory on which the new aggregates are based is provided in Barnett and Su (2014).¹ In this paper, we provide detailed information on the data sources used in producing the new augmented Divisia monetary aggregates.