Tipping the (Im)balance: Capital inflows,financial market structure,and banking crises

An emerging consensus among scholars and policy‐makers identifies foreign capital inflows as one of the primary determinants of banking crises in developed countries. We challenge this view by arguing that external imbalances are destabilizing only when banks face substantial competition from securities markets in the process of financial intermediation. We assemble a dataset of banking crises covering the advanced industrialized countries from 1976 to 2011 and find evidence of a conditional relationship between capital inflows, a well‐developed securities market, and the incidence of banking crises. We further explore the impact of capital inflows on banks’ actual risk taking as indicated by their capital adequacy levels and measures of insolvency risk. Our results demonstrate that prudential capital cushions tend to decline with the combination of capital inflows and prominent securities markets. We highlight the political decisions—often made during the early days of a country's financial development—that determine the relative prominence of banks vs. non‐bank financial institutions and conclude with policy recommendations.     

External Conditions,the Evolution of Financial Risks,and the Informational Content of Stock Prices: The Case of Chile

ABSTRACT

In this article, we find that the dynamics of local financial risks in the Chilean stock market are associated with the evolution of external economic conditions, with a strong reduction in both idiosyncratic and systematic risks during periods of stable conditions. Despite this, we fail to find any significant change in the traditional measures of stock price synchronicity developed in the R² literature in our sample. We argue that these measures neglect the relationship between stock prices and fundamentals and find that the strength of the association between prices and fundamentals changes during our sample period, being much stronger during times of stable external conditions and diminished stock price volatility.     

Nominal Interest Rates and the News

This paper provides new estimates of the impact of monetary policy actions and macroeconomic news on the term structure of nominal interest rates. The key novelty is to parsimoniously capture the impact of news on all interest rates using a simple no‐arbitrage model. The different types of news are analyzed in a common framework by recognizing their heterogeneity, which allows for a systematic comparison of their effects. This approach leads to novel empirical findings. First, monetary policy causes a substantial amount of volatility in both short‐term and long‐term interest rates. Second, macroeconomic data surprises have small and mostly insignificant effects on the long end of the term structure. Third, the term‐structure response to macroeconomic news is consistent with considerable interest‐rate smoothing by the Federal Reserve. Fourth, monetary policy surprises are multidimensional while macroeconomic surprises are one‐dimensional.     

信用利差的影响因素文献综述

现有的研究表明,影响信用利差的因素是多方面的,既包括信用风险因素,也包括宏观因素、股票市场表现等非信用风险因素。文章对比分析了信用利差量化研究的典型方法,并从信用风险因素、宏观因素、股票市场影响等几个角度综述了对信用利差影响因素的主要文献。通过对比分析,文章发现上述因素对不同等级债券的影响程度存在一定程度的差异。     

Divisia Monetary Aggregates,the Great Ratios,and Classical Money Demand Functions

King et al. ( 1991 ) evaluate the empirical relevance of a class of real business cycle models with permanent productivity shocks by analyzing the stochastic trend properties of postwar U.S. macroeconomic data. They find a common stochastic trend in a three‐variable system that includes output, consumption, and investment, but the explanatory power of the common trend drops significantly when they add money balances and the nominal interest rate. In this paper, we revisit the cointegration tests in the spirit of King et al., using improved monetary aggregates whose construction has been stimulated by the Barnett critique. We show that previous rejections of the balanced growth hypothesis and classical money demand functions can be attributed to mismeasurement of the monetary aggregates.     

中国宏观经济形势分析与未来取向

2020年,中国迎难而上,果断抗疫,精准复产复工,成为全球唯一实现经济正增长的主要经济体。2020年,基建投资和房地产投资成为中国经济增长的稳定器,出口在全球贸易萎缩的背景下实现正增长,消费由于疫情导致的就业尤其是服务业就业减少、居民收入增速下降等因素出现了明显放缓。展望中长期发展,应积极培育需求,打造中国经济增长新动力。具体而言,要从四个方面着手:通过推动经济地理再布局,打造中国经济新增长点;在产业有序转移的过程中实现产业升级;保经济安全底线,重点关注产业链、能源和金融三个领域的安全问题;优化互联网平台监管。     

Non-classical Algorithm for Time Series Prediction of the Range of Economic Phenomena With Regard to the Interaction of Financial Market Indicators

The aim of the article is to present non-clasical copyrighted algorithm for prediction of time series, presenting macroeconomic indicators and stock market indices. The algorithm is based on artificial neural networks and multi-resolution analysis （the algorithm is based on Daubechies wavelet）. However, the main feature of the algorithm, which gives a good quality of the forecasts, is all included in the series analysis division into, a few partial under-series and prediction dependence on a number of other economic series. The algorithm used for the prediction, is copyrighted algorithm, labeled M.H-D in this article. Application of the algorithm was performed on a series presenting WIG 20. The forecast of WIG 20 was conditional on trading the Dow Jones, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, taking into account the sliding time window. As an example application of copyrighted model, the forecast of WIG 20 for a period of two years, one year, six month was appointed. An empirical example is described. It shows that the proposed model can predict index with the scale of two years, one year, a half year and other intervals. Precision of prediction is satisfactory. An average absolute percentage error of each forecast was： 0.0099%---for two-year forecasts WIG 20; 0.0552%--for the annual forecast WIG 20; and 0.1788%---for the six-month forecasts WIG 20.     

Divisia monetary aggregates and money demand for Malaysia

Divisia M1 and M2 are constructed for Malaysia. Unlike M1, Divisia M2 shows significant differences in both level and growth rates from its simple sum counterpart. We also compare these Divisia measures to simple sum M1 and M2 in a money demand function. Using error correction models, we examine short-run dynamics between these monetary aggregates and money demand determinants such as inflation, domestic and foreign interest rates, financial wealth, and income. We find that Divisia M2 is the most appropriate monetary aggregate of the four candidates to track money demand in Malaysia and should be used when conducting monetary policy.     

青岛市海洋第三产业与整体经济发展关系实证研究

文章主要根据青岛市1998～2012年海洋第三产业及GDP相关数据,首先运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验方法定量分析了青岛市海洋第三产业与整体经济发展之间的关系,结果表明,两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系并呈现单向因果关系。随后将青岛市海洋第三产业的长期均衡因素引入到短期预测模型,建立ECM模型,通过模型结构分析得出了影响青岛海洋第三产业的长期均衡因素和短期波动因素。在计量结果分析基础上,着重分析了海洋第三产业与整体经济发展的现实互动关系,最后针对青岛市海洋第三产业的发展提出了加强基础设施建设、制定政策优惠措施,拓宽融资渠道及丰富海洋第三产业产品等建议。     

土地税费政策参与宏观调控的实践研究

通过分析耕地占用税、城镇土地使用税、土地增值税、新增建设用地有偿使用费（简称新增费）、土地闲置费等土地税费政策参与宏观调控实践效果,反应出我国土地税费政策参与宏观调控过程中存在税制结构不尽合理、土地取得环节税负偏低、保有环节征税范围过窄、流转环节税费政策实施难度大等问题。对策建议：优化土地税制设计,加强调控作用;在土地取得环节实行差别化税额标准;提高土地保有环节的税负;在土地流转环节加强税费征管。