Estimation of a US dairy sector model by maximum simulated likelihood

This paper estimates a multivariate Tobit system of monthly wholesale dairy prices where four prices are lower censored by the dairy price support programme. Using Maximum Simulated Likelihood (MSL) the effects of simulation noise are tested/corrected for and the relevance of estimating multivariate versus the single Tobit equations discussed.     

National culture and national savings: is there a link?

We study the effect of national culture on economic decisions, focusing on GLOBE cultural dimensions of uncertainty avoidance and future orientation. Specifically, we study the effect of divergence between cultural values and practices (societal aspirations), on the aggregate savings decision. Using the life-cycle model of savings as our basic model, we find that societal aspirations are important in explaining national savings behavior. In particular, we show that societal aspirations relating to future orientation and uncertainty avoidance have a positive effect on the rate of savings. We interpret our findings to indicate that such societal aspirations lead to mistrust in the societal arrangements and institutions, and induce savings as a means of securing the future and reducing uncertainty. To substantiate this interpretation, we utilize the microfinance industry; showing that high societal aspirations are associated with preference for savings through member-owned microfinance institutions (MFIs) over savings through non-member-owned MFIs.     

Does Self Help Group Participation Lead to Asset Creation?

We evaluate the effect of Self Help Group participation on a long-term impact parameter, namely, asset creation. Indian Self Help Groups (SHGs) are unique in that they are mainly NGO-formed microfinance groups but later funded by commercial banks. The results reveal that longer membership in SHGs positively impacts asset creation, robust to various asset specifications. With longer participation in SHGs, members move away from pure agriculture as an income source toward other sources such as livestock income. Training by NGOs positively impacts asset creation but the type of SHG linkage per se has no effect.     

“Big Man” politics in the social economy: a case study of microfinance in Kingston,Jamaica

Microfinance and its “reinvention as bankers-for-the-poor” to create financial inclusion has not been effective everywhere. The literature seems to suggest that the social economy and microfinance help marginalized business people; yet no one considers that political bias interferes with the social economy, making it hard for it to be just. The promise of micro-credit was to achieve a double bottom line: first, the financial sustainability of the lending institution itself, and second, the social benefit of providing loans to low-income business people. Yet, alternative pitches of a social economy to “help people” fail to analyze the embedded power dynamics within the social economy. In this case study in downtown Kingston, Jamaica, 233 small-business people who depend on development finance because of social exclusion now find that these targeted programs are intertwined in partisan, sometimes dangerous, politics. As a result, oppressed people opt out of micro-banking programs to resist “Big Man” politics – the politicians or gangsters attempting to control them. In this study of 307 interviews, I analyze the informal politics of Dons and politicians who misuse micro-credit for their own ends. I find that the coupling of class biases and clientelist practices in the social economy discourages eligible business people from taking micro-loans, and argue that the microfinance industry needs to pay close attention to this issue if it is to continue to help marginalized business people.     

浅议我国农村小额信贷的问题与对策

如何向农村人口提供金融服务，是农村经济发展必须要解决的问题，也一直是各国政府面临的挑战。农村小额信贷的实践和发展为解决这一问题提供了全新的思路。但我国农村小额信贷的发展目前仍处于实验探索阶段，还面临着各种各样的风险和挑战。本文分析了农村小额信贷发展过程中的问题，并结合实际提出了大力拓展农村小额信贷的建议。     

农户小额信贷可持续发展的经济学分析

农户小额信贷是专向低收入阶层提供小额度持续信贷的服务活动。本文通过构建一个农户小额信贷的收益模型,分析农户小额信贷各个参与方的效用,指出小额信贷可持续发展;政府放松对开展小额信贷金融机构的管制,以及采取较高利率是小额信贷可持续发展的必要条件。     

发展关系型农户小额信贷的经济学分析

引入关系型贷款,可以为解决农户获取小额信贷难问题提供一个新的思路.建议构建基于关系型贷款的农户小额信贷运行机制;以农户为中心设计信贷产品实现跨期平滑;推行小组联保降低农户小额信贷风险;加快利率市场化改革增强贷款利率调节功能.