Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

Impact of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on rural household income: An integrated estimation

The objective of this study is to identify the pathways of the potential impacts of the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) on household income and quantify these impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated analytic framework and using data collected from Wuqi county of Shaanxi for the period 2004–2010. This integrated analytic framework enables us to formulate a structural equation model for testing hypotheses regarding the direct and indirect impacts of the SLCP. It is found that the direct effect of the SLCP on household income is positive but very small and insignificant, suggesting that retiring cropland has, at least, not reduced income from farming. Moreover, the SLCP has had a much higher and even increasing indirect impact on household income through promoting labor transfer and relaxing liquidity constraints. Overall, the SLCP's total impact on household income ranged from 3% in 2004 to 9% in 2010 excluding the insignificant direct impact. The research and policy implications of our work are discussed.     

金融管制理论和方法的演进

管制经济学通常包括经济性管制、社会性管制和反托拉斯管制三大部分。其中经济性管制研究的是自然垄断领域和存在严重信息不对称领域,后者典型的表现形式如金融业。一般的管制经济学因金融业内容丰富,需要独立的研究而较少涉及。而多数金融业管制研究侧重于监管的层面。文章从管制思想的演进、管制理论对金融业的实证研究、金融业管制经济分析和金融管制方法最新进展四个方面对金融管制经济理论进行分析和评述。     

Different Roles of Land in Rural-Urban Migration： Evidence from China＇s Household Survey

This paper explores the influence of land holding on rural–urban migration using China's 2008 household survey data. It shows that the contradictory findings of existing published literature can be explained by introducing a migration distance variable. The empirical studies show that land holding plays a different role in short‐distance and long‐distance migration. Land holding has a U‐shaped curve association with the probability of short‐distance migration and has an inverted‐U‐shaped association with the probability of long‐distance migration. Therefore, the government needs to provide more job information and migration subsidies to farmers who have little land to overcome difficulties in the process of migration so as to reduce rural–urban inequality.     

Heterogeneous Risk Preferences,Discount Rates and Land Contract Choice in Ethiopia

This paper analyses the role of risk and rate of time preference in the choice of land contracts. The analysis builds on the risk‐sharing and imperfect market explanations of contract choice. Unique data from Ethiopia, which contain land contract information and experimental risk and rate of time preference measures on matched landlord–tenant partners, are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that landlord and tenant time preferences are significant determinants of contract choice. For landlords (but not tenants), risk preference is also significant, indicating the importance of financial constraints and production risk in the determination of contract choice. The results are of particular relevance to land market policy in Ethiopia, where production is risk‐prone, financial markets are imperfect, and where there is a major need for the development of vibrant land rental markets.     

Incentives for motivated agents under an administrative constraint

Consider an agent who has an expertise in producing a non-marketable good. This good is valued by a single principal, and there is a verifiable measure of the agent’s performance. Crucially, the agent is intrinsically motivated due to ‘warm glow altruism’. In addition, the agent’s budget, which is controlled by the principal, must not be less than the monetary performance-cost faced by the agent. This gives rise to a limited-liability constraint. It also restricts the agent’s ability to under-report costs. In such environment, we determine the link between the agent’s budget and performance. Our results come in contrast to the received solution of the principal-agent problem and to most in the literature on mission-motivated organisations and public services provision.     

电子书店中的用户角色分配自动化

在大型电子商务系统中,从用户到角色进行人工分配代价巨大,且容易出现错误的角色分配,文章以一个电子书店中的用户角色分配为基础,详细介绍了基于属性与约束的用户角色自动分配的设计与开发实现过程。     

带容量限制的双配送中心选址方法

研究了带容量限制的双配送中心选址问题,结合聚类算法、重心法构造了一个解决双配送中心选址问题的算法。首先根据聚类算法思想将整个配送服务区域划分为两部分,再运用重心法进行配送中心初始选址,然后根据就近原则选择离重心点最近的备选地点作为配送中心初始选址。考虑到配送中心的容量限制,当某一个配送区域中各需求点的总需量超过配送中心的最大容量时,就对该区域的部分需求点进行调整,即从该区域调入另一区域。调整后,再次运用重心法进行配送中心初始选址,然后根据就近原则选择离重心点最近的备选地点作为配送中心最终选址方案。     

混合所有制改革能有效化解国有企业产能过剩吗

在深化国有企业混合所有制改革的政策背景下,相比于采用正向逻辑来研究国有企业与其他所有制企业产能过剩的成因与化解机制异同,本文通过逆向逻辑构造反事实因果推断,即国有企业经过混合所有制改革身份属性发生变更后产能过剩能否得到化解,来探究国有企业产能过剩的制度性成因。在实证分析中,本文通过PSM—多期DID方法识别了国有企业混合所有制改革对于其产能利用率的政策影响,分析了不同市场结构下国有企业规模对产能利用率影响的非线性关系,明晰了国有企业混合所有制改革化解产能过剩的作用途径,探究了产能过剩的制度性根源与衍生因素之间的传递效应。     

消费信贷对消费影响作用的实证研究

本文基于美国1959—2009年近60年的消费信贷和个人消费支出的月度样本数据,实证研究了消费信贷对消费的影响作用。结论显示,消费信贷对消费具有显著的拉动作用。本文为我国大力发展消费信贷以拉动消费和经济增长提供了有力的实证研究支撑。